There were a lot of garage firms this cycle. Flooding the averages with a particular bias.

My gut feeling is also that the larger, more credible polling outfits are herding a bit and are afraid of under sampling the same voters they under sampled the last 2 elections. Though this bit remains to be seen, as I said it’s more a feeling than anything.

Edit: also to add on to my herding note. I find it odd that every projection system out there says it’s close but also makes a point to hedge further and say that a landslide either way is plausible. It just adds to my feeling of herding and general ass covering.

Edit 2: just saw the Seltzer Iowa Poll. This post is about 5 hours old at time of edit. Maybe gut was onto something