The EU’s capitulation to the Hungarian PM’s blackmail is a grave mistake. He seeks to reshape the bloc in his image
The decision by European leaders to open formal EU membership negotiations with Ukraine is historic – it offers hope to a people who are courageously fighting Russian aggression and sacrificing their lives for a European future. The agreement marks a historic new chapter for the EU. But legally, it required the unanimity of all 27 leaders, and it only became possible because Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán – who had threatened to block the opening of talks with Ukraine – left the room, in effect abstaining rather than wielding his veto.
The fact that 26 EU leaders, including Orbán’s supposed allies, signed up despite his opposition underscores the importance of this historic step. Yet it is tainted by the questionable means through which the agreement was achieved.
In a highly dubious deal that emerged in the run-up to the summit, the European Commission had unblocked €10.2bn, a third of an overall sum for Hungary frozen as punishment for Orbán’s dismantling of the rule of law. The Hungarian government made token reforms to restore judicial independence, but they fall far short of what is needed.
It’s almost as if the UK made a gigantic mistake by exiting itself from the EU.
Not that British influence could unfuck Hungarian politics, but it would have at least given them a larger degree of influence in the outcome.
Setting aside the legal issues around pushing Hungary out of the EU, I don’t really understand the political value of them being allowed to remain - except maybe that forcing them out would upset Poland.
At least with Turkey and NATO, I understand the geostrategic importance e.g. Montreux Convention, forward operating bases, etc.
This isn’t me saying there isn’t a valid, or even vital, rationale for needing to keep Hungary in the EU, just me asking for someone knowledgeable to provide me with one.
To be extra clear, I’m not asking for answers on the legal path, or lack therefof, to involuntarily remove an EU member state, just the political rationale for NOT wanting Hungary kicked out, or suspended
Pretty sure this could be solved in a similar way to handling versions of a duplicate computer file, name the old EU file as EUv1, copy contents of v1 to a new EU file, make amendments to EUv2 using ctrl+f to delete mentions of Hungary (or preferably ctrl+r to change Hungary to UK, maybe rename the EUv2 file to SovereingtyUnionV1 to appease the leave voters), then everyone just leaves EUv1.
The rules mean they can’t force Hungary out, but Hungary can’t stop everyone else leaving and forming a better club.
I’d say the thought is that if Hungary falls out of the EU it will eventually become a vassal state to Putin. This would create a horrid mess greater than keeping it in the EU and trying to coax the Hungarian government more towards European values.
I don’t buy that argument, at all.
Being a vassal of Putin would require Hungary"s standard of living to drop so dramatically, that even Orban couldn’t get reelected.
And, if their standard of living did manage to drop that much while retaining Orban, there’d be even less reason to want to keep them within the EU.
The standard of living in Hungary has been constantly declining since orbán has been in power. His voter base is still going strong nonetheless, especially among the poorest. These people have no future, but also no present either - they’ll vote for the name they hear the most often, or the one their employer tells them to. They being mostly jobless, that employer being the village mayor via the public works programme, and usually a puppet of orbán as well. Checkmate, liberal democracy.
