36 years old. Never voted before in my life… But that changed this year! I registered and voted early for Harris!
i personally know at least 6 people who didnt vote last the last election at all that were enthusiastically voting harris. people are motivated this time in a way they just werent really with biden.
theres at least one outlet that was pointing out how terribly skewed the presidential polling was compared to the congressional races, which is just not technically plausible. the only explanation is biased polling processes in the presidential race to keep people invested.
theres hope… theres possibility the polls are wildly wrong and harris gets it by 5-6 points everywhere it matters.
Ignore the polls. Just vote. I did today!
Wtf are the polls and why do they exist…I always hear about winning/losing before any election even happens.
Is it just made up garbage?
This year looks like there are many new polling companies that pop out of nowhere.
There were a lot of garage firms this cycle. Flooding the averages with a particular bias.
My gut feeling is also that the larger, more credible polling outfits are herding a bit and are afraid of under sampling the same voters they under sampled the last 2 elections. Though this bit remains to be seen, as I said it’s more a feeling than anything.
Edit: also to add on to my herding note. I find it odd that every projection system out there says it’s close but also makes a point to hedge further and say that a landslide either way is plausible. It just adds to my feeling of herding and general ass covering.
Edit 2: just saw the Seltzer Iowa Poll. This post is about 5 hours old at time of edit. Maybe gut was onto something
Polls are when organizations teach out to a percentage of the population (phone, Internet) to ask them their voting intentions.
Exit polls are the same thing, but are done after people have voted.
Sample size/distribution is supposed to be done in a way that reflects the voting intentions of the populace as a whole (doesn’t always work out that way).
I’m really hoping we’re seeing a surge of people who haven’t participated in polls but are voting for Harris. I know I’ve had pollsters reach out to me and I’ve brushed them off because of time, energy, whatever. But you can be sure as hell I got my ass out to vote
Do not let your guard down. Vote. And do what you can to assure those around you vote as well. Especially that well meaning 20 something in your life with a high danger to procrastinate.
The article spent a lot of time speculating about the reasons why one candidate or the other had a lead, without providing any data. Then it gets to this guy’s model, and it’s based off predictit??
I think Harris pulls this off, but as problematic as some polls can be, betting markets are even less reliable. This article essentially means nothing.
“It’s been going back and forth around the 270 line,” he told Fortune. “Right now, it’s a tossup according to the PredictIt numbers. The big question in my mind is, how much Republican bias is there in the prediction markets?”
According to this data person, Trump blew a huge lead to make it evens. Please vote
