President Biden’s reelection campaign announced Monday that it will aim to flip Florida, targeting the home of former President Trump.
Campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said in a memo that investing in Florida is part of the Biden campaign’s pathway to 270 electoral votes. Trump won the Sunshine State in 2020 with more than 51 percent, compared to Biden’s 48 percent.
“Make no mistake: Florida is not an easy state to win, but it is a winnable one for President Biden, especially given Trump’s weak, cash-strapped campaign, and serious vulnerabilities within his coalition,” she said.
…
The Biden campaign has also set its sights on flipping North Carolina in November. Trump won North Carolina by a tight margin in 2020, and Biden visited the state as part of his tour of every battleground state last month.
Given that abortion and legal weed will both be on the ballot in Florida this cycle, turnout could a lot different this time around.
If it somehow did work, then it would mean Republicans would need to win PA, GA, and MI in addition to every other state they currently lead in. However, it is unlikely that this would work for Biden because the state is polling 47% to 40% weighted average in favor of Trump, if you include third party then Trump is winning with 46% to 39%.
Honestly, maybe this is pure hubris here, but I think Biden is in for a big win in November. They have so much fucking money on hand they can blow it in Florida to troll Trump and Desantis. I think roughly 10-20% of the Republican party is, because of Jan 6, never Trump voters. We see Haley getting about that much support in these late primaries, even after she dropped out. We haven’t had an election with Trump on the ballot since Jan 6 I think this is the sole reason he won’t win. Moderates fucking hate him over Jan 6. So we have completely disengaged moderate conservatives, big donors are walking away because they don’t want to pay Trumps legal bills. State GOPs are bankrupt. And to top it all off, Trump is going to be in court all summer over __________ crimes
Meanwhile Biden has strong issues to campaign on: Abortion and threats to American democracy. We still haven’t managed to hit a recession yet, even tho its been predicted for the last 3 years. Things are improving, albeit slowly. Also what nobody in the mainstream is considering: Polling is completely broken. Pew research did a poll and found that 12% of respondents were capable of operating a Nuclear Sub (the reality is less than 1%). Online polls pay per poll, people are very clearly just answering question as quickly as possible to get the pay outs.
maybe this is pure hubris here, but I think Biden is in for a big win in November
Yes, it IS pure hubris. He won most mutual states by a smaller margin than Hilary and he’s currently behind in at least one of the swing states that cost her the election.
If he doesn’t get his act together and stops turning droves away from voting at all, he’s going to lose.
Just because I know some will trot out this strawman: no, I don’t WANT him to lose. He’s by far the lesser evil and if he loses to the mango Mussolini, there might not be another election.
Don’t forget that the republican party has shrunk just in raw numbers. Covid deaths and people switching parties after jan 6 means even if 100% of Republicans voted Trump in 2024 it’d be a smaller number than if 100% of Republicans voted Trump in 2020.
If Democrats try just a little, I think you’re right, and we could be seeing the complete collapse of the Republican party because of it. When special elections are flipping R+15 districts, and the reaction against the Dobbs decision has been so strong and sustained, then there’s a message that will work in every district. Meanwhile, Republican fundraising has already dried up, and what funds they do have are going into Trump’s mounting legal bills. The party has the wind knocked out of it, and if Dems would just fucking try rather than give them a moment to catch their breath, it would be a curbstomp.
But they need to fucking try.
They have so much fucking money on hand they can blow it in Florida to troll Trump and Desantis. I think roughly 10-20% of the Republican party is,
It already cost Biden over a billion dollars in 2020 to win the electoral by a very small margin…
Pew research did a poll and found that 12% of respondents were capable of operating a Nuclear Sub (the reality is less than 1%)
Weirdly topical, but I’m assuming they meant Naval Nuclear Engineers…
The ASVAB is typical standardized test where the best score is 99%. Weighted for when the test is taken.
So if only 1% could be a nuke, that would be assuming 100% of people take the test and the Navy only takes 99.
Now, I got a 99, and got into the program. But there was people in the high 70s as well. People could retake the test as many times as they want. And there is/was even a supplemental test people could take if their main ASVAB wasn’t quite high enough.
So yeah, 12% of poll responders being able to do the toughest job of a nuclear sub doesn’t sound right…
It’s really much higher than that.
You didn’t click the link did you?
The poll was about who is “licensed” not just “smart enough.”
You didn’t click the link did you?
The on hyperlinked in the previous sentence that just says “polls are broken”?
No, I don’t click on most links that don’t say where they’re going and sounc conspiracial. I’m on a phone and can’t “hover” to see.
I just did tho:
For example, in a February 2022 survey experiment, we asked opt-in respondents if they were licensed to operate a class SSGN (nuclear) submarine. In the opt-in survey, 12% of adults under 30 claimed this qualification, significantly higher than the share among older respondents. In reality, the share of Americans with this type of submarine license rounds to 0%.
So, OP read one thing, and then said another.
But that’s about something factual, not an opinion like “who are you going to vote for”.
And it is specifically about online opt in polls…
Which is probably why OP decided to hide the link. You don’t even need to read the title to realize why it’s not relevant. The link says it plain as day.
But man, I’ve been overestimating people recently.
If you truly don’t understand why “online opt in polls” are the worst kind of polling I can take the time to explain it. But it’s basically like saying trump is selling shitty shoes so you’ve decided to go barefoot the rest of your life.
I honestly don’t think Florida’s a swing state anymore. Since desantis took office and designated it an anti-vax safe haven during covid, I think it swung much further right. This is probably a waste of resources.
You got a dip shit like DeSantis whose War On Woke cost Florida tax payers millions for nothing. And you also have dipshit pedo Matt Gaetz who is proud to pay for underage sex workers and still has a job.
Flipping will just unwind Florida’s BS to circa 2015 and will take years of recovery before they can rebuild.
Florida is not a swing state. It’s red. Vox did a good video on the why.
https://www.vox.com/politics/23848897/florida-red-trump-desantis-republican-2024-election
Terrible idea, focus literally anywhere Else
He has enough money to go full press practically everywhere. If Biden can force Trump to campaign in Florida, even if it stays red, it will keep Trump out of swing states.
This is hopefully the plan. The tris that Biden NEEDS to actually play some 4D chess. Keep the Trump campaign guessing and keep out maneuvering them.
Not to pick nits, but applying pressure to an area so that your opponent has to defend is basically just regular chess.
Abortion and Recreational Marijuana are on the FL ballot as a result of petitions and signatures. The voters are still blue in a lot of areas; and there’s been a large rejection of the DeSantis maneuvering around Disney, and costing the state business.
A terrible idea would be not trying.
That’s what most people fail to realize about the us elections. Literally nothing matters but voter turnout. Every election with high turnout goes to democrats. You’re not going to convince any Trump supporters to suddenly vote Biden. It’s Biden vs voter apathy, not Biden vs trump. Republicans know this, that’s why they are always pushing the “both-sides” bs. Having abortion and pot on the ballot make Florida very winnable.
Chavez Rodriguez outlined that abortion will be on the ballot in Florida, where the state Supreme Court issued a ruling that puts a six-week ban into effect May 1. Democrats see abortion as a winning issue for them in 2024 after experiencing better-than-expected results in the midterm elections months after Roe v. Wade was overturned.
That’s basically a key point here. Abortion is banned in Florida, but a state constitutional amendment protecting the right to abortion is on the ballot the same day as the presidential election.
That does change the electoral dynamic.
