Some nitpicks. some of which are serious are some of which are sneers…

consternating about the policy implications of Sam Altman’s speculative fan fiction

Hey, the fanfiction is actually Eliezer’s (who in turn copied it from older scifi), Sam Altman just popularized it as a way of milking the doom for hype!

So, for starters, in order to fit something as powerful as ChatGPT onto ordinary hardware you could buy in a store, you would need to see at least three more orders of magnitude in the density of RAM chips—​leaving completely aside for now the necessary vector compute.

Well actually, you can get something close to as powerful on a personal computer… because the massive size of ChatGPT and the like don’t actually improve their performance that much (the most useful thing I think is the longer context window?).

I actually liked one of the lawfare AI articles recently (even though it did lean into a light fantasy scenario)… https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/tort-law-should-be-the-centerpiece-of-ai-governance . Their main idea is that corporations should be liable for near-misses. Like if it can be shown that the corporation nearly caused a much bigger disaster, they get fined in accordance with the bigger disaster. Of course, US courts routinely fail to properly penalize (either in terms of incentives of in terms of compensation) corporations for harms they actually cause, so this seems like a distant fantasy to me.

AI has no initiative. It doesn’t want anything

That’s next on the roadmap though, right? AI agents?

Well… if the way corporations have tried to use ChatGPT has taught me anything, its that they’ll misapply AI in any and every way that looks like it might save or make a buck. So they’ll slap an API to a AI it into a script to turn it into an “agent” despite that being entirely outside the use case of spewing words. It won’t actually be agentic, but I bet it could cause a disaster all the same!