Since its surprise incursion into Russia more than a week ago, Ukraine has steadily gained ground, saying it advanced even deeper into Russian territory on Wednesday. It says it has captured hundreds of soldiers, as Russia has evacuated more than 130,000 people from nearby communities and declared a new state of emergency in one region.
And now Moscow has begun withdrawing some troops from Ukraine in an effort to repel Kyiv’s offensive into western Russia, according to U.S. and Ukrainian officials, an indication that the surprise attack is forcing Moscow to change its battle plans in Ukraine.
Taken collectively, Ukraine has deftly put Russia on the defensive, creating a new, if small, frontline in a war where Moscow has long had the upper hand. If Russia brings reinforcements in large numbers from other parts of the front, it could provide some relief to Ukrainian troops who are struggling to push back relentless Russian attacks, particularly in eastern Ukraine.
It is an edge that Ukraine appears intent on keeping, as its eyes, for now, holding the Russian territory it controls.
Are we all a bit surprised by the success of this offensive? Including Ukraine and Russia?
I don’t understand what Ukraines plan is here. What if Russia just lets them have it? I mean it’s clear Ukraine doesn’t want it, it’s just tactical.
One of Putin’s main support comes from his “Keep Russians safe” narrative. It’s also diplomatic currency in case they start negotiating peace
For sure it’s a blow to putin and his image, but is it substantial or just wishful thinking?
What if hypothetically, it’s no problem for Putin? Wouldn’t Russia just let them have whatever they took, make a “surovikin line” there and let Ukraine deal with all the issues that come with invasion and dealing with the local population. Not to mention there will at some point come questions from the western partners about this occupation.
It would be political and most likely literal suicide for Putin to do that.
There’s several benefits:
- They draw Russian troops from the front lines in Ukraine to counter the attack.
- Russia now has to dedicate manpower and equipment to defending their entire border with Ukraine to avoid another attack like this.
- If Ukraine maintains the territory, it’s a huge bargaining chip at the peace negotiating table. Before this, the only way they were going to get their territory back was by taking it back forcefully. Now they can negotiate a trade.
- Best case, this is like the Tet offensive and sours support for Putin and the war within Russia, likely because Putin will need another wave of conscription to meet the manpower needs of 1 & 2.
Best case scenario, they end up in Moscow.
More realistically, they draw troops ment for offensive operations into defending these regions. This relieves pressure for Ukraine to take back territory elsewhere. I heard they were targeting specific airbases, but I can’t confirm It’s relatively low risk, with several potentially good rewards.
Is it clear? Seems profitable to own that clay - the pipeline infrastructure connects Asian oil with European markets, and whoever controls it can charge rent and leverage favors. For example, back in the day when Russia used to own it, they tried using it to extort the EU, begging for ridiculous concessions and threatening to shut down the pipeline if their silly demands aren’t met.
