Lemdro.id

2 points

2 months ago

it would probably fuck them harder, as they would have to “collectivize” for lack of a better term that i cannot remember right now. Far right and MAGA might. But moderate republicans are extremely unlikely to do this, as well as swing voters. It would probably single handedly kill the chances of trump ever winning again.

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CleoTheWizard@lemmy.world

[ - ]

1 point

2 months ago

It wouldn’t screw them over until a legitimate third party is in place. And then maybe. But you have to ask yourself what a third party looks like if it looks like an alternative to both parties. Surely the first third party would just be a split between the parties, it would still take them awhile to win anything at all. But I could see alternatives being a more eco focused party and I honestly think it would screw both major parties. Which is the ideal case. If anything, this screws the dems more because of their voters are more likely to break rank with how the party is going.

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[ - ]

1 point

2 months ago

i think the moderate voters, both republican and democrat would immediately fuck them over, though the moderate dems are more likely to align and side with current democratic representation, and possibly future as well, just due to fundamental values, so it’s less of a problem for the left.

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CleoTheWizard@lemmy.world

[ - ]

3 points

2 months ago

As much as I think that the right is going to split after trumps loss, I think they’re also more cohesive than the left is by far. There are many flavors of leftists and while I think that there are also many flavors of right wingers, they have a much easier time banding around their goals because to be honest they don’t do much. They’re a regressive party. Regression is inherently more unifying than progress because we all disagree on how to achieve progress but regress is pretty simple.

Basically my theory is that the right would lose less from a split than the left because half of the left is ready to jump ship at any moment, as is the right, but the right is more cohesive due to shared identity and regression.

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[ - ]

1 point

2 months ago

As much as I think that the right is going to split after trumps loss, I think they’re also more cohesive than the left is by far.

i highly disagree. There is a fundamental divide in how the parties manage. The left is more bottom up, and the right is more top down. It’s much easier for the right to appear “unified” but it’s much easier for them to also fracture, we’re seeing this be a problem in the house already.

Whereas on the left, it seems highly disjointed, but it’s relatively homogeneous. We have much more flexibility when it comes to “unifying” as a party, than the republicans do.

if trump drops out there are two primary paths that are taken, trump runs as a third party, pulling like 20% of the vote, while a primary candidate pulls most of the votes, or a replacement for trump, who is more likely to be less inflammatory than trump, and more moderate, who maga people aren’t very likely to like. But might vote for in large numbers.

Regardless the entire MAGA base will collapse overnight and have to find something new, likely fracturing in the process, so i would expect to see a lot of turnover in the house and senate in the years after trump drops out long term, assuming he does.

I think your general assumption is correct, but i think you’re forgetting about rhetoric and public image. People who think cats are being eaten by Haitians in ohio are simply going to have a different worldview from those who don’t and just think it’s a “meme”

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CleoTheWizard@lemmy.world

[ - ]

1 point

2 months ago

First thing, I think that the Republican Party is highly likely to face a crisis of identity after Trump so you’re correct there. A moderate cannot appeal to their voter base anymore so their only choice now is to find another populist and those aren’t super common. But also people are mostly ignoring that Trumps existence has raised the voter participation numbers. I think after his disappearance, republicans will face far less participation and excitement.

I only get to talk about these things rarely but it’s interesting to think about. See once the Republican Party realizes it can’t win with votes and it can’t just cheat its way upwards, we get interesting results. That’s when they must pivot on things that appeal to moderates. They’d have to drop their anti-LGBTQ stances. I can’t see a world currently where they aren’t forced to give up on abortion. Basically most of their social issues would have to go. The party would look very different.

But then that all will piss off their extremists and they can’t do that. So this is what I think splits the party.

We talk optics though and I’ve always criticized the left on its optics. They aren’t good. And that outward representation reflects inwards. Let me tell you right now that being in the middle of discourse, the right doesn’t argue with itself often. The left does.

My main example is this genocide situation with Biden and Gaza. Plenty of leftists and democrats are still prepared to waste their votes because of that situation despite the harm reduction argument. The right won’t do this.

It’s weird to say that the left is more cohesive as a base when the current MAGA people are basically in a cult and I don’t know what’s more cohesive than a cult. That’s at least half of their current party voters. So aside from them splitting, they value loyalty and nationalism, both of which create an alliance within them. They also aren’t sophisticated voters so they’re unlikely to break rank because they aren’t really thinking much about positions.

I agree that the right is on more shaky footing than people think but it’s due to their current position I assume. For instance, consider if they had a young populist in their ranks. Think about if Trump was 45. We’d all be scared and rightly so because that cultist behavior would prevail and unite the party.

Mark my words, the only thing saving the party from not splitting is a new populist and that would be very bad for everyone if they found one.

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[ - ]

1 point

2 months ago

A moderate cannot appeal to their voter base anymore so their only choice now is to find another populist and those aren’t super common.

and this is why i think it’s going to fracture aggressively, they won’t find someone capable of replacing trump, and if they do, i will eat my pants. In return whoever they pick is going to appeal broadly to the maga hardliners, but only them, and it’s likely going to drop some of the extremist crowd, and most of the more moderate people who are going to toe off somewhere else.

But also people are mostly ignoring that Trumps existence has raised the voter participation numbers. I think after his disappearance, republicans will face far less participation and excitement.

this is actually a really good point, but it’s also important to remember that trump doesn’t just energize the democrat vote. If trump gets out of the running, that’s likely to kill a good chunk of the dem voter party, unless whoever they pick is moderately popular and has a decent chance of winning. On either side.

I only get to talk about these things rarely but it’s interesting to think about. See once the Republican Party realizes it can’t win with votes and it can’t just cheat its way upwards, we get interesting results.

yup, it’s why i mostly focus on these kinds of things within politics, it’s what i find most interesting at the moment. Unfortunately, cheating upwards seems to be an incredibly viable strategy, which is probably less than ideal.

That’s when they must pivot on things that appeal to moderates. They’d have to drop their anti-LGBTQ stances. I can’t see a world currently where they aren’t forced to give up on abortion. Basically most of their social issues would have to go. The party would look very different.

this is basically what i foresee in the more moderate camp, it’s either going to kill the republican party, or as some have suggested, kill the maga party entirely and it’s going to shift more moderately, but it’s hard to be sure. In basically every fascist leadership, once the leader dies or loses power, the party collapses. Everything becomes a free for all and all the real estate is free so to speak.

But then that all will piss off their extremists and they can’t do that. So this is what I think splits the party.

yeah, a big problem i haven’t yet considered, is that nazis and far right extremists may try to capitalize on this really heavily, and if they do that might be a big problem…

We talk optics though and I’ve always criticized the left on its optics. They aren’t good. And that outward representation reflects inwards. Let me tell you right now that being in the middle of discourse, the right doesn’t argue with itself often. The left does.

this is true, but i think the general benefit it provides in strength outweighs the negatives, as long as single issues voters like the israel palestine people for example, don’t become a significant number in the majority, it really shouldn’t matter all that much, and most of those people would rather vote dem anyway.

We pushed out biden, and now kamala is a really strong contender, and it seems like the trump camp is about to implode on itself any day now, but maybe i’m just not used to republican rhetoric lol.

We’re a lot more broadly cohesive, and while we might not be collectively cohesive, like the republican party, we generally don’t hold animosity towards anybody. I give the israel palestine people a lot of shit for what i consider to be “bad think” but at the end of the day. They’re still people, and they still have the right to hold an opinion and vote for the people and problems they want. We both agree on that aspect. That’s something that trumpers won’t agree on. Certainly not with dems, this is why RINO is a thing.

My main example is this genocide situation with Biden and Gaza. Plenty of leftists and democrats are still prepared to waste their votes because of that situation despite the harm reduction argument. The right won’t do this.

yeah, this is definitely a concern, but i honestly don’t think it’s all that many people, it seems to mostly be college students that care about it, as well as people just barely old enough to vote. And those who aren’t yet old enough to vote. I think a lot of them who do exist, will probably vote for kamala, since it’s the obvious choice, but those who don’t are probably more of a fringe than the far right extremists are. I’m just not convinced there’s enough of them out there to make a substantial difference. Something on the order of taylor swift endorsing kamala for example. I think is going to have much more push in that direction.

It’s weird to say that the left is more cohesive as a base when the current MAGA people are basically in a cult and I don’t know what’s more cohesive than a cult. That’s at least half of their current party voters. So aside from them splitting, they value loyalty and nationalism, both of which create an alliance within them. They also aren’t sophisticated voters so they’re unlikely to break rank because they aren’t really thinking much about positions.

i think you’re probably conflating cohesiveness, and conformity here, cults value conformity almost exclusively. Cohesiveness is just the ability of a group to broadly stick together, fans of a certain sports team for instance, they have a certain cohesiveness. Linux users as well. ETC.

The maga people are kind of like a single ship in the middle of the ocean, everybody they like that conforms gets brought on and boosted, and the people they don’t get thrown off. The left is a lot more like a fleet of boats, all working towards the same general concept, just in different manners. It’s not that we aren’t collectively cohesive. It’s that we’re cooperatively cohesive.

I agree that the right is on more shaky footing than people think but it’s due to their current position I assume. For instance, consider if they had a young populist in their ranks. Think about if Trump was 45. We’d all be scared and rightly so because that cultist behavior would prevail and unite the party.

that could very well be a real concern, but i don’t think any old populist would be able to replace him, trump holds an almost god like status, whoever replaces him will never satisfy that. It might pick up the remains of the base, but they haven’t yet won a single election in the popular vote, and they didn’t win the 2020 election. They’re only going to lose worse, unless some god fearing event happens at this rate.

Mark my words, the only thing saving the party from not splitting is a new populist and that would be very bad for everyone if they found one.

i’ll consider it, but i think it would lead to an extremely turbulent period, and it would at best, be a complete rat race to the bottom. And at worst, dissolve within a few months. The only real alternative is literally trying a military coup i think.

man, this has been a wall of text lol, gotta love political analysis and theory though.

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