No, I’ve put “war as a necessity” group separate from “anti-war”.
Through the virtue of being Russo-Ukrainian (and currently residing in Russia) I constantly speak to people of very wide backgrounds, and I listen to conversations around.
There are people who are generally speaking of exterminating Ukraine, putting Z signs on the vehicles etc., but there aren’t that many of them.
There are some that want to restore “Slavic world”, and many more that talk about “saving Russia”, which is certainly imperialist and serving Putin’s agenda, but not aimed at exterminating Ukrainians per se (and having close Ukrainian roots and many relatives under rocket strikes, I am very sensitive to the narrative of destroying culture or people, my culture and my people, so I notice when it happens).
And there is a majority of people I know, people that are opposed to war, some mildly and mostly out of care for their families, some strongly and coming from something more. Most of them have something to lose, and even those who previously protested now can’t risk that, because regime got way more brutal. They literally don’t know what to do. I don’t know what to do while my close ones are in danger.
Colonial settlers? Latvian Russians are the kids and grandkids of those who moved there back when this was seen as yet another region. These people never chose to be born in Latvia, but so is their home, and they happen to be Russians. People of any ethnicity in any country should have access to their culture; this is one of the basic rights everyone should have. No exceptions.
As you can guess from previous paragraphs, I speak Russian fluently as well, только при этом я здесь живу по сей день и могу оценить, как дела обстоят на самом деле и что думают обычные люди. Местами в регионах это совпадает с зарисовками, опубликованными Медузой, но в целом я вижу больше разговоров и об украинцах, хотя очень часто исподтишка, невзначай, как вот про “украинских ребят” из той же зарисовки. It’s hard to openly protest and voice open dissent, though.
On the sources: 1.Clearly states that the only relevant result is that Russians do indeed hide their dissent, and estimates may be wrong even when asking indirectly, and are certainly skewed with direct answers. 2.Quite an interesting read, though there’s mainly one true and important takeaway: many Russians, especially in the small regions that have always lived a slow life, face inability to protest it openly, end up growing frustrated and escape long discussions of the war. This is commonly known as “getting tired” of it, but there is a deeper level to it. 3.Sources info from article 1 and misinterprets it.
The problem is, the research you provided only confirms that there is an issue of hiding true opinions, without definitively stating wide support. A list method employed not only doesn’t guarantee honest answers (just makes them more likely), it also has plenty of inaccuracies of its own, as it brings about many contentious things people could agree or disagree on.
There’s one thing we have in common - we want this war to end. You, probably for overall peace in the world, me, because my close ones are in danger, hiding from mobilization, living with intermittent electricity, not knowing what tomorrow is gonna bring, and also for global peace, of course. But seeing how it unfolds in Russia, how russophobia channels and feeds into Russian nationalism - something that can easily be weaponized - I really don’t think this is the answer. Russians the people are truly in the hard spot right now, they don’t need someone to tell them to go figure this out, and if there is a way to support any anti-war effort inside Russia, this will go a much longer way than animosity and rejection based on where they happen to be.
And I don’t buy your claim that everyone is “anti-war” and a small minority believes that “war is a necessity”. Your anecdotal experience is not really relevant when we have qualitative, quantitative research and reality (that russian have been directly occupying three nations since the USSR broke up - is this not fucking imperialism).
There are people who are generally speaking of exterminating Ukraine, putting Z signs on the vehicles etc., but there aren’t that many of them.
As I wrote earlier, it’s not only an issue with those who openly express their genocidal imperialism (and there are tens of millions of such adults). It’s also those who doesn’t see a big problem or think it’s a fair sacrifice that works for them. Such people are just as bad and their actions lead to the same outcomes.
“but not aimed at exterminating Ukrainians per se”.
This is just white-washing russian genocidal intent. Your “restore the slavic world” fellows know full well that russia is doing everything possible to exterminate Ukrainian culture (not to mention torturing tens of thousands of civilians and terrorizing millions). They all know it and they all support it.
And there is a majority of people I know, people that are opposed to war. Most of them have something to lose, and even those who previously protested now can’t risk that, because regime got way more brutal. They literally don’t know what to do. I don’t know what to do while my close ones are in danger.
The overwhelming majority supported the annexation of Crimea (80-85%), the occupation of Donbass and the full scale invasion. Same with the 2008 invasion of Georgia. And yet you bring the people you know?
For Latvia to be their home, they would need to learn Latvian language and be part of Latvian culture as opposed to supporting Putin and imperialism more broadly. You can’t call a place your home when your loyalties lie to a regime that wants to destroy the country you allegedly call home.
What an interesting interpretation of the first paper. It pretty clearly states that preference falsification is at around 10% with support for the full scale invasion going from 75% (direct polling) to 65% (list experiment).
“the research you provided only confirms that there is an issue of hiding true opinions, without definitively stating wide support.”
This is complete bullshit that directly contradicts the findings of the paper. The authors even explicitly state that due to their methodology they believe that the true level of support is higher than 65% even when accounting for preference falsification.
List experiments have issues, any methodology does. But when multiple quantitative methodologies and qualitative research show the same findings, you can’t just bring up “plenty of inaccuracies of its own”.
Did we read the same paper? It’s a pretty damning picture of even those who are not aggressively pro-imperialist genocide. I don’t see what getting tired or not getting has to do with anything. They still support the russian army (that send cruise missiles into children’s cancer hospitals) and in principle they are OK with killings and destruction as long as it benefits them.
There’s one thing we have in common - we want this war to end. You, probably for overall peace in the world, me, because my close ones are in danger, and also for global peace, of course. But seeing how it unfolds in Russia, how russophobia channels and feeds into Russian nationalism - something that can easily be weaponized - I really don’t think this is the answer. Russians the people are truly in the hard spot right now, and if we can influence them in a friendly way, we should, because animosity clearly doesn’t help.
This is great example of supremacist russian thinking. It perfect aligns with notion that a strong majority of russians are genocidal imperialist (while not necessarily open stating this).
Let me translate:
“We want to keep 20% of Ukraine [and attack again later], because of “world peace”, we all want “world peace”, right?”
“Show respect to us russians, this is nothing. If you don’t show us respect we will fuck you up!”
“Russians the people are truly in the hard spot right now” - Typical russian victimhood. They are always the victims in any situation!
“and if we can influence them in a friendly way, we should, because animosity clearly doesn’t help” - There is not a single example in recent history of russians doing any type of good faith actions in the geopolitical sphere. On the contrary, a recognition that a strong majority of russians are genocidal imperialists, that they do not believe in human rights (beyond using the concept for manipulation and lies) and they support authoritarianism (in their own country, but in others too) is the only way forward.
Authors clearly stated that the result can be inaccurate and some percentage of Russians may not answer honestly even under such conditions, and in conclusions, they only ended up confirming some people do seemingly hide their true opinions (although the extent of it may vary as the studied group was not representative of entire Russian population and was taken from Toloka, a place attracting specific demographic not fully representative of general Russian population).
It sure is important to know Latvian language, but for that they already have Latvian language tests for those coming into Latvian citizenship. They can, however, hold any culture they want, while respecting Latvian law and basic customs. Same applies to anyone anywhere, including any minorities of Russia or Ukraine. In any case, trying to erase Russian identity is not the answer, which is obvious to legislators outside the country.
Did I say anything about borders? You literally made this up. When I say I want peace, honestly, I don’t give a single damn where the border will be - where it is now, or where it has originally been, or anything in between. I want for two countries, both of which are my homes, mind you, to stop putting their men in the meat grinder. And I know plenty of people on both sides of the Russo-Ukrainian frontline share my sentiment.
But attacking Russians on the Internet and excluding them from everywhere further radicalizes them, leaves them bitter to the outside world, which can lead them to believe y’all really are the enemies to fight against. By alienating Russians, such people just feed into Putin’s narrative that the world is full of hostiles. This has nothing to do with victimhood or imperialism - this is basic human psychology, and it would work exactly the same anywhere else.
I strongly wish Russian aggression would stop, I care for it with all my heart. Again, my close ones are in fear of an attack as we speak. But I also happen to see the perspective of everyday Russians - something that most of those judging never get to see or even consider, naively thinking that they are the “punishers” for incorrect behavior, and that more of that will lead to a “child” getting to learn good behavior. No - slowly, but surely you simply raise bitterness and become an enemy. And they won’t get themselves to blame, and they will march with their wraith. Not on you. On my people. My grandmother. My uncle. My brother. His wife. I could just never talk about those things, present myself as a Ukrainian (after all, I am one) and go about my life, but too much is at stake for me to stay silent when y’all are doing the stupidest shit you can.
You’re lying about the authors conclusions. They explicitly stated that the support was higher than 65% due to their methodology. And they did clearly state that preference falsification is a mere ~10%. Therefore their research (like any quantitative research on this topic) supports my statement that the majority of russians are genocidal imperialists as they want to conquer Ukraine and destroy Ukrainian identity.
No, they need to learn the Latvian language at a high level if they want to live there. This is basic component of calling a place your home. You have to some loyalty to your country and not support a genocidal enemy. The fact that russian culture is at least on some level defined by genocidal imperialism is not a problem of the Latvians. This is basic stuff.
Ukraine is not your home. You are a russian, no Ukrainian would try to come up with “war is necessity” word salad or your comical “russians the people are truly in the hard spot right now”. So don’t lie!
You don’t care about borders because you don’t care about the ten of thousands of civilians in russian torture dungeons. We also both know that vast majority of russians are not interested in any kind of real peace. Just like in 2014, the goal is to get some breathing room, then attacks and try and get more territory and exterminate Ukrainian culture in the newly occupied territories. This approach is nearly universally known and (silently) supported by a strong majority of russians.
GTFO with your “on my people”. You defend russian imperialism and colonialism and you dare to imply you have some relation to Ukraine?
Victimhood is a defining element of russian culture. Without it there is no russian “culture”. Conspiracy theories blaming foreign countries for any and all ills are extremely prevalent in russian society. This has been true in the past, this is true today and it will be true in the future.
I don’t understand what you mean by your “punisher” sentence. The vast majority russians already blame everyone but themselves for all their problems. You brought up russophobia as an implicit excuse for russian crimes. Russophobia doesn’t really exist. When a society consist of a strong majority of genocidal imperialists that lack empathy, it is reasonable to see that society as a threat and a problem. This is not rocket science.
Have you ever seen a well known russian (outside a few figures like Novodvorskaya) admit that at least part of the problem lies in russian society at large? I think not … because we both know the role of victimhood among russians.
To develop a russia strategy that works, the world needs to understand that russians will never act in good faith, russians will always play the victim and a strong majority of russians are committed and genuine ethno-racial supremacists that lack empathy.
Alienating russians is a red herring. The only way forward is a sober view of russian culture and methods and an understanding that russia only understand force; you have to treat them like they treat others.
