Summary
Trump’s proposed tariff hikes on Chinese imports, potentially reaching 60%, could accelerate China’s shift to alternative markets and offshore production.
Exporters in Yiwu, a hub for small goods, report declining U.S. sales and are increasingly targeting regions like Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
Trump also plans to close tariff loopholes, such as the $800 duty-free exemption, which would heavily impact low-cost exporters and American consumers.
Many Chinese manufacturers are relocating production to countries like Vietnam and Mexico to evade tariffs, but further restrictions could disrupt these strategies.
Not really, Demographics is the fundamental reason why you are seeing tariff’s come back in vogue. People under 45 are the main consumers of goods as they are establishing households, raising kids etc etc. The population of Millennials and Gen Z across the globe is not large enough and is not forming households fast enough to consume and/or support the production capacity that we are capable of.
This is why China is seeking to export their way out of their current economic crisis. The population of Chinese 40 and younger is much smaller and shrinking at the fastest rate in history, even faster than Japans population in the 90’s. They don’t have enough consumers to buy the things they are making. They need foreign markets to maintain their industrial base and export their way out of the financial crisis they are facing.
Europe also has varying degree’s of the same issue. The Millennial and Gen Z populations are much smaller than older populations meaning that they also can not consume the products they are making.
The US and North America as a whole is the only major “rich” market that has a large Gen Z and Millennial population that can replace the boomers. The US (and most of the world by extension) has seen the risks of putting all of your production in one basket (China) during covid and is seeking to build out it’s industrial base in North America to home shore much of it’s production and logistical chain. The Inflation reduction act was pivotal to starting this process. It’s expensive and will take a few decades to complete. However North America can’t build out its industrial base if China and to a much lesser extent Europe dump products on our markets. Hence tariff’s and trade disputes.
I don’t think Trump is going to put sky high tariffs on Mexico, Canada, they are critical trade partners and are essential to building out our industrial capacity in North America. But I do think he is looking for concessions from them. During Trumps first term he renegotiated NAFTA, essentially putting same agreement in place with a few small tweaks and called it his own. I think he will do the same here.
Europe is a different story, the US doesn’t need them to build out our industrial base. The US wants to protect Boeing and a few key industries so I expect there to be some conflict and even a trade war to get them.
China is a different story, I don’t think anyone from either party want to do business with them. The US through two separate administrations has been kneecapping their economy since the end of the Obama era. High tariff’s from the US and Europe will essentially strangle their economy and put the final nail in their coffin. They would never make the leap to an advanced economy or get out of their current financial crisis.
At the same time I think high tariff’s on China would also increase the chances that we will see some kind of direct conflict over Taiwan in the next ten years. If China see’s that their economy and production capacity is going to nose dive over the next decade then the calculus for making a attempt at reunification becomes much different.
In the near term, prices are going up. Consumers who voted Trump looking for cheap gas and eggs are going to get fucked.
