cross-posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/17867338
The Russian ruble tanked past 115 per USD in January, the lowest on record when excluding the immediate shock after the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in the first quarter of 2022, as sanctions isolated Russia from global financial and commodity markets.
The currency was halted from domestic trading against major pairs after Western nations sanctioned the Moscow Exchange, magnifying the difficulty for companies to secure hard currency and forcing the Bank of Russia to set forex prices since June.
This added pressure as China’s weakening economy limited demand for goods from Russia’s main export partner, further denting the influx of foreign exchange. The impact on government revenues from energy exports drove Moscow to partially relax the capital controls it had to prop up the ruble, letting it depreciate to support its budget deficit. Despite this, political pressure drove the CBR [Central Bank of Russia] to cut its tightening cycle short in December, compounding pressure on the currency.
Russia has massive payments in December. Last time the National Wealth Fund shrank by $22billion and before by $37billion. Right now there are $54billion in the fund. However the Russian government has had issues raising bonds and income from exports seems to fall as well, with gas exports to the EU being cut now. Even worse the National Wealth Fund also includes the currency reserves. So Russia might have a hard time defending the rubel.
Yes, they are running out of options.
Just a question: Where have you got the data from? I assume the $54billion are the total asset. According to the data I have, Russia’s National Wealth Fund’s liquid assets - which are supposedly more relevant when it comes to defend the currency - stand at just $31bn as per November 2024. But please correct me if you think I am mistaken.
I got it from TASS. The $31bn is the liquid yuan part. The rest is mainly gold.
