There was an article earlier about people smoking crack if they thing Trump is up 10 points.
Well…he’s up 10 points. The Democrats need to do something fairly drastic soon if they want to win 24.
The election is more than a year away, the article was about YOUNG people, and Democrats have been massively overperforming in special elections, demonstrating that there’s a polling issue right now.
See you in a year.
This is so scarily reminiscent of Dem complacency in 2016. Learn from history lest you be doomed to repeat it. Please.
I’m not suggesting or supporting complacency. We do not have this in the bag, and we had damn well better be prepared to fight every step of the way, because progress is an existential threat to these assholes.
I’m just suggesting that we don’t get cynical and apathetic, either. We can and will win if we don’t give up, but cynicism and apathy are just as much the enemy as complacency.
I feel like I’m the only one here old enough to have actually voted for Kerry and Clinton. This is how those elections started as well…
Everyone discounted the polls because they were absurd. No way Bush wins, he’s a…uh…special guy. 12 months later, Kerry concedes because he didn’t want to do to America what Trump did.
Just saying kids…history repeats.
You’re definitely not the only one. I remember both of Kerry and Clinton and was quite upset at the time about how blind the dems were to the obvious signs, but this is not enough to become alarmed. It is single poll conducted by phone making it incredibly skewed. And it’s a single poll.
It is single poll conducted by phone
Dunno man…the people that still pick up the phone are still by far the only people that vote consistently.
That’s a reasonable concern, but there are strong indicators that the electorate is very different now.
Again, Democrats have been massively overperforming. That means that in special elections since 2020 - and in the midterms in 2018 and 2022 - the polls underestimated Democratic support significantly. The same can’t be said of the special elections preceding Kerry’s loss. And it’s important to take note of who is turning out in unexpected numbers: Young people, who are notoriously hard to poll due to the fact that they don’t answer calls from unknown numbers.
Add to that the fact that Republicans have been killing themselves in record numbers by refusing to vaccinate during a global pandemic.
I’m by no means convinced Biden has a lock on the win. But especially more than a year away from the election, I’m not going to buy into the doom and gloom, either.
Also, we’ve got to factor in the Electoral College. Yes, it’s outdated and should be gotten rid of, but until it is gone, it’s how you win elections. Given that, national polls really don’t say who will win. You can win every national poll, but get crushed in the Electoral College.
If at this time next year the state level polling says that Trump (or whomever the Republican nominee is) will win, then I’ll be worried. Until then, I’m not going to panic because a couple of polls that may or may not be outliers say Biden is losing to Trump nationally.
