Hear about how much debt everyone in the US has all the time, curious about some of your stories!
My bad debt is 10k left on a school loan from a for profit school that is now out of business.
Only other debt is house.
So how are you all doing with debt management?
I’m in the exact same boat, to the letter. It’s been great watching interest rates and inflation eliminate 60% of my home buying power in the last year.
You know what’s neat?
In 2008 the economy tanked because the banks had made a habit of cough approving mortgages that they knew people couldn’t afford in the long run. Then they auctioned off those subprime mortgages to smaller banks, and played hot potato until oopsie, economic depression.
If we’re in this boat, who the fuck is buying a home, who approved their loan, and how the fuck is 2008 not right around the corner again?
Good thing we bailed them out.
Thankfully, we are not at risk of another 2008 housing crash at this time - or at least not for the same reason.
The extremely (almost irresponsibly) abridged version of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis is that banks were giving out loans to people who could not afford to pay them.
The similarly simplified version of what’s going on today is that people cannot afford to take a mortgage and aren’t getting them. Back in the bad old days loan officers would have given out the mortgages anyway to boost their numbers and the bank would have bundled that loan with others to hide it and started the game of hot potato. That isn’t what’s happening today.
That’s not to say a market crash the size of the '08/'09 crash won’t happen, or won’t happen soon, or won’t be caused by the housing market. It’s just that the circumstances that triggered the 2008 crash aren’t present today.
The extremely (almost irresponsibly) abridged version of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis is that banks were giving out loans to people who could not afford to pay them.
This is the comparison I’m drawing, because it’s what is happening again.
A 200K home mortgage isnroughly 2000/mo. It’s not doable for median income, and the .median house price is like 380k right now. The math doesn’t check out.
There’s no subprime market ready to collapse. This isn’t a housing bubble. The increase in prices is partially demand and partially inflationary imo.
Interest rates will keep prices level but we aren’t going to see a crash cuz all those companies are cash flush after the ppp fraud and rental Rates skyrocketing. The only houses on the market are ppl who have to sell or ppl who died.
No one wants to jump out of a 3.2% mtg and into an 8% one
I think the interest rate has a lot to do with the declining value of commercial real estate. I think the banks are trying to cover losses. Small businesses going fully remote makes it difficult to sling commercial real estate at the old rates.
I think this is also behind the odd fetish of returning to the office we read so much about.
