Traffic on the single bridge that links Russia to Moscow-annexed Crimea and serves as a key supply route for the Kremlin’s forces in the war with Ukraine came to a standstill on Monday after one of its sections was blown up, killing a couple and wounding their daughter.
The RBC Ukraine news agency reported that explosions were heard on the bridge, with Russian military bloggers reporting two strikes.
RBC Ukraine and another Ukrainian news outlet Ukrainska Pravda said the attack was planned jointly by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the Ukrainian navy, and involved sea drones.
If it weren’t for Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries staging a mutiny against the Russian military, I would have cast serious doubt on Ukraine’s counteroffensive succeeding. Regardless of what you think about the competency of the Russian armed forces, it can’t be denied that Wagner are one of their few effective units in force.
Ukraine has remained boldly united in the face of a long and a bloody war on their own doorstep, whereas we’ve seen deteriorating Russian morale, both within the country’s borders and on the frontlines.
At this rate I think that Zelenskyy will retake Crimea and the Donbas within months.
What is with the Prigozhin/Wagner mutiny anyway? Never heard anything after.
It died when Belarus intervened and brokered a compromise between the Wagner group and Putin. Still unfolding so we still don’t know the full story. Here’s a summary from Business Insider.
My guess is he got paid off to back down. Putin has a lot of money and probably offered him safety in Belarus as well as a huge chunk of change for him and his troops.
What does that have to do with the effectiveness of the counter offensive?
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-war-dubik-interview-defense-offense-tavberidze/32476276.html
"Well, campaigns are judged on how much they contribute to the strategic gains. So, [Ukrainian] President [Volodymyr] Zelenskiy’s strategic aim is to secure his country’s political sovereignty, territorial integrity, and that sets conditions for economic prosperity. That’s how I read them. And so, a successful counteroffensive will achieve all of those or move toward achieving those.
So, what that means on the ground is that Ukraine’s forces have to seize back enough territory from the Russians to, at the minimum, force the Russians to negotiate from a position of weakness and from a position that Zelenskiy can secure political sovereignty, territorial integrity, and thus economic prosperity. So, it’s not an objective of how many miles, how many cities. It’s the relationship of the campaign and the strategic objectives that determines success."
Let me know when Ukraine is able to achieve enough success to force Russia to the table on their terms.
Ukraine is making good progress and there is no doubt how degraded and brittle the Russian defenses are.
As the campaign succeeds, the impacts of their striking capabilities will become more and more clear.
Remember that degraded morale has a compounding effect as well. If a position hears that four other positions near them have failed, they might decide “well fuck it”, and then the positions behind THEM hear “well now five positions have failed” and they scramble, and so on. Combine that with the fact that Russian morale is already reportedly extremely low (who would’ve thought conscripts make shitty and unhappy soldiers).