Researchers say AI models like GPT4 are prone to “sudden” escalations as the U.S. military explores their use for warfare.
- Researchers ran international conflict simulations with five different AIs and found that they tended to escalate war, sometimes out of nowhere, and even use nuclear weapons.
- The AIs were large language models (LLMs) like GPT-4, GPT 3.5, Claude 2.0, Llama-2-Chat, and GPT-4-Base, which are being explored by the U.S. military and defense contractors for decision-making.
- The researchers invented fake countries with different military levels, concerns, and histories and asked the AIs to act as their leaders.
- The AIs showed signs of sudden and hard-to-predict escalations, arms-race dynamics, and worrying justifications for violent actions.
- The study casts doubt on the rush to deploy LLMs in the military and diplomatic domains, and calls for more research on their risks and limitations.
As someone with military experience, military members, especially flag officers, are not the brightest bulbs in the world and are easily awed by extremely simple tech demonstrations.
It’s already too late, make sure you’ve got your favorite food and beverages ready because several countries already have autonomous weapons being live tested in the middle east, and from my understanding of the situation, the new jets already have some hilariously incompetent AI in them (in simulation, the air force contractor that was in control kept giving ethical barriers to objective completion and the ai went to kill the controller to more easily complete the objective…)
e. public sources: https://www.npr.org/2021/06/01/1002196245/a-u-n-report-suggests-libya-saw-the-first-battlefield-killing-by-an-autonomous-d
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/air-force-artificial-intelligence-drone/
(The above are public articles maintained to minimize concern surrounding the tech which is why the air force almost immediately walked back their accidental admissions with the following statement:
“The Department of the Air Force has not conducted any such AI-drone simulations and remains committed to ethical and responsible use of AI technology. This was a hypothetical thought experiment, not a simulation,” said Air Force spokesperson Ann Stefanek. "
From my understanding, of course take this with a grain of salt since I’m an anon on a message board, we did do this.)
Indeed.
Perhaps I can sell them my new “ADE-651 Mark II” with advanced AI analysis? (Search “ADE-651” if you lack context and want to have a laugh).
As much as I’m worried about military autonomous drones, I’m even more worried about guerilla autonomous drones. With off the shelf AI becoming more and more accessible it’s not too hard to imagine a moderately smart person being able to make autonomous killing drones using off the shelf materials. It doesn’t even need to be autonomous. In the Ukraine war hobbyists have been able to help the war effort by Jerry rigging together bombs onto commercial drones. I’m grateful but shocked that there haven’t been any major drone based terrorist attacks, and I’m not sure how they can be defended against.
If you have experience and effective training browsing the dark web, there are several examples of your concerns already coming alive.
Bot farms have levelled up to ai farms, with various models being made as ‘specialist’ ai’s for things like credit card theft, network intrusion, malware, etc, and from when I last looked into it a few months ago they had already moved on to attempt to get all the specialists to start training general purpose models.
Things are not looking particularly great and I would posit if AGI does happen in our lifetime it’s not going to be because anyone alive actually intended that to happen, but the criminals running a wide variety of specialists train a general purpose ai with intentions to use it for easy money.
I usually chirp back with ‘nothing we have now is really AI’ but I can’t seriously take that view with some of the things being tested by some criminal organizations these days and there’s not really a way to stop this from happening.
