I don’t think people on this sub use it, but it’s great news for us. The worse it gets the likelier people move on.
I’d love to be able to disagree in any of your points, but I can’t.
The vast majority of users want something that simply works, is polished and intuitively usable. Reading docs, remembering anything other than the bare minimum, running into issues that don’t get magically resolved within 5 minutes will turn them away forever.
Even people with a technical background will at least partially compromise and migrate towards the services with the most users to not isolate themselfs.
Matrix is neat, Lemmy is neat, Nextcloud is neat (well, in theory), Immich is neat, so many other privacy friendly solutions are neat. But they’ll always be irrelevant in the global context.
I mean with next cloud and immich it doesn’t really matter if they are popular. Those are services that you host for yourself for you to use generally by yourself.
Immich I could see someone using if they’re already familiar with Google photos, so long as someone else handled the setup and maintenance of it of course
Selfhosted services like Nextcloud/Immich aren’t nearly as dependent on a critical user mass like Discord/Matrix, but the principle is the same.
If you host for family or friends, they may even use it if you convince them to switch. But when the setup, which doesn’t consist of redundant instances and isn’t maintained by a small army of SysAdmins 24/7, inevitably breaks for longer than a few minutes, most will switch back to the easy, reliable option.
The vast majority of users want something that simply works, is polished and intuitively usable.
That’s exactly what matrix most popular client Element does.
It is often sketchy. The search function doesn’t work properly. Loading older messages often makes your client spaz out. There’s several glitchy commands. Spamming snowflakes can slow down your client to a crawl. A friend once crashed Element on my phone using a lot of nested quotes with muscle emojis. We had to spam other stuff so I could open Element again because the moment those messages started loading my client crashed again, preventing me from even changing the channel so I could open my app again.
I use Element and Matrix because it is the best privacy-respecting option, but it has a long way to go.
