The percentage chance that the security council will do something about this is pretty much exactly 0.
The US vetoes anything the UN tries to do against whatever war-criminal shit Israel gets up to in any given year, the two of them often completely alone, but with the veto on the other foot, the other 99% of the world will I think be firmly on the side of simply telling Israel “my guy you must be joking with this.”
Iran has stated that they now consider the matter closed from their perspective, and the US is for the most part pretty careful about escalation management. The only real wild card is what Israel wants to do, which God only knows, but I do hold out hope that their first action being to involve the UN means they’re planning on a bunch of performative outrage and nothing else significant.
It was always thus, in this as in many other contexts. If phase 1 is “You can’t stop me, rules mean nothing, I will do as I please,” it’s a good bet that by phase 3 we’ll arrive at “OMG what is happening now is against the rules, won’t someone step in and make sure I come to no harm, we need justice.”
