Either TikTok will win in court and overturn the law (possible), be sold (unlikely) or shut down (likely). I can’t see TikTok being sold being allowed by China, and even selling part of the business just creates a new global competitor to extend out of the US.
Multiple competitors will appear in the meantime hoping to get the displaced activity. TikTok is hugely profitable and a dominant replacement in the US would make a lot of money. This will be seen as an opportunity to make a lot of money for the winner.
I can see Meta trying to make a TikTok like clone, Google trying to leverage YouTube shorts, and Elon Musk trying to revive Vine at Twitter, plus lots of startups (mostly. American but possibly from other nations) vying to win the audience.
Ironically the more interesting battle may be outside the US - TikTok versus whatever US app comes along.
The deadline is after the US election - this could also all be political grandstanding and the politicians expectation might be that the law won’t stand up in court anyway.
TikTok has hundreds of millions of users outside the US, they may just pull out [and then US users will VPN to use it like we’re fucking Iran]
unless the bill has changed since the last time I read it, there were fines for hosting the service in US datacenters, and fines for companies allowing US data to exist in non-us datacenters. I don’t think you could interpret the bill as imposing a civil penalty to a user using a vpn and accessing it.
VPNs aren’t that hard, but I feel like you overestimate the technical literacy of the general public in the US.
All the public will have to do is type “tiktok.com” in their browser and their computer will connect to directly to servers in China. For now, they don’t even need a VPN.
Then our politicians will start discussing a national firewall. We’ll show that we’re better than China by doing the same things China would do (/s).
