Put another way: What happens to the S&P 500 when the Baby Boomers see a spike in death rates and their estate liquidates their assets?
I mean, if the payout is so low that it’s not worth keeping in the market, then it’s not going to have much of an impact on the S&P 500. I’m sure many Millennials (focusing on them, since they’re most likely to lose parents) will use the money for a down-payment on a home, but 52% of them already own homes, and many Boomers will be leaving behind their own homes, so it’s safe to say substantially less than half of them will need to cash out their parents 401Ks for homes. Student loans will probably take up some of that money, but the average student loan debt is $32K, while the average boomer has about 200K in retirement savings, so even the student debt crisis isn’t going to take that much money out of the market.
The real thing to watch is medical costs. Boomers are living longer while medical costs are skyrocketing, so it does seem that a lot of the wealth the Boomers accumulated is going to medical industry instead of Millennials. I don’t know hoe that’s going to impact the market though.
I think low payouts will though. its likely there will be thousands of low payout for every significant one. Its much more common. Some folks get into the lucky position where all said and done it cost them money or at least a lot of their time with nothing really to show for it. but your right its being pulled out of the market as the money is needed or even sooner in those cases. So it won’t be a sudden it but more of a slow constant drain.
