I agree this increase is insane and without parallel AFAIK. It seems to be too good to be true, and normally that means it actually is too good to be true.
It’s also hard to believe that Nvidia will be allowed to stay ahead in a market with such profit potential.
But for 8 years they’ve not only kept their market advantage and profit margins. They’ve actually managed to increase both.
I thought Nvidia was crazy when they made chips that yielded only one per wafer, I thought AMD would beat them with more agile chips at a fraction the price.
So the question is when you call this a bubble, do you mean demand for compute will stop increasing as much as it is? Do you think AI will flop?
In some ways I think AI already flopped somewhat from the initial hype of ChatGPT. But I do not think that will stop the race among companies to implement AI to keep up or stay ahead og the competition. It seems like AI is like a weapons race, and I bet it will go on for at least 5 years. Then if it turns out not to be the advantage companies hoped for, it will obviously slow down.
But I think Nvidia has a few years of good running ahead of them yet.
I think this “AI” (a marketing term) bubble will flop per the article we linked in the post: this is a bubble fueled entirely by investors, mostly VC, throwing money into a fire of unprofitable businesses selling services at a loss that don’t actually work.
I spoke to a pile of AI industry peons who think the VCs will get sick of setting money on fire by the end of this year. I woulda given it two years myself - there are hundreds of billions of dollars desperate for a home - but the number I was consistently hearing in March was “three quarters”.
Maybe the Nvidia price will weather it. It took a hit when crypto crashed, though not a huge one.
The link you provide above stalls, so IDK what that is about.
I don’t agree that AI is just a marketing term, although it probably is used in that way by many, it is not when it comes to Nvidia, who has the by far most popular hardware to drive AI software. And Nvidia is already making a lot of money on selling hardware for AI, and even lower tier suppliers claim the demand is crazy for AI hardware.
VCs will get sick of setting money
Do you mean venture capitalists? It’s very annoying to have to guess the meaning of a 2 letter acronym. For Christ sake how many meaning do you think VC has?
What special contact do industry peons have with venture capitalists? That doesn’t make any sense. Also I don’t believe this is driven by venture capitalists at all.
All the biggest companies like Microsoft, Google, Facebook etc are making huge investments in their own implementations, implementations that cannot even be finished this year because of supply shortages. This is not about upstarts, but all the biggest existing companies investing huge amounts of money. Upstarts funded by Venture capitalists are not even a blip on the radar.
So saying 3 quarters is absolute bullocks, that doesn’t even cover NVIDIA’s back orders!
this is a bubble fueled entirely by investors,
Nope, there is actual crazy demand. But how crazy in the longer run remains to be seen.
For Christ sake how many meaning do you think VC has?
we’re talking about a frequently used initialism on this community, which you may want to read more of, or not. Did you find this post by keyword searching?
Bragging how you didn’t read something is also ill-favoured here.
