It’s pushing us into extremely weird territory to have two candidates this unpopular.
The difference is Biden unpopularity is due to uncertainty while trumps is due to EXTREME certainty that he’s a piece of garbage
Biden unpopularity is due to uncertainty
Which I don’t understand. I’m certain Biden won’t institute project 2025 so the choice should be obvious.
Worst case scenario for Biden is he’s mostly absent and his cabinet has to guide him through policies making the Democratic party mostly in control.
Which is pretty much exactly what Trump’s first term was adding in a lot of grift and pointless spite.
Uncertainty my ass. Joe Biden is running on an excellent record. He is running on his policies.
Disclaimer this is very unlikely.
I have seen enough people grow older and senile and start acting totally out of character. People who I would have called progressive start supporting Trump because of old man brain.
There’s nothing uncertain about Biden at this point. It’s a matter of being in denial or anger.
I think what they’re getting at is that we’re uncertain the extent age will affect his duties. Will his cabinet and other advisors be really “in control,” or will Biden insist on his way forcing others to kowtow. It is certain that the dude is old as hell and if it were he alone, he would be incapable of the job. Since there’s a staff and a ton of advisors, the degree of control they have is, well, uncertain.
There’s no pushing. We were already in extremely weird territory when the news media can present the candidates so dishonestly that Biden is at all unpopular.
He forgave hundreds of billions of dollars in students loans, reduced income inequality for the first time in god knows how long, increased working class wages even when adjusted for historically massive inflation, raised corporate tax by a MASSIVE amount in order to fund all of the above, and also spent a trillion dollars on trying to address climate change, like the first time ever that a US presidency actually tried to do something about it in a big way, which is way too little way too late but that’s not his fault.
His opponent is a literal pants shitting moron who goes on weird tirades about toilets and windmills; even the truest of true believers often walk out of his speeches before they are finished, because they are unhinged and random and, at the end of the day, uninteresting. His campaign priorities are cartoonishly evil. Beyond cartoonish. They sound like a joke. He wants to kill foreigners, throw his political opponents in prison, and make friends with our nation’s worst enemies siding with them against American soldiers and American people. He wants to ban contraception and porn, and dismantle the Department of Education and the FDA. And the FBI. And NOAA.
And yet, somehow, the news manages to present such a distorted landscape that “Biden is very old and shit the bed at the debate” is like the most relevant thing everyone is trying to talk about, even now, a month later, when it is objectively undeniable that the great mass of the Democratic electorate doesn’t give a shit about it and cares more about all that earlier stuff. As well they should. They are, surprisingly enough, not as stupid as you and the news keep consistently, relentlessly, dishonestly, pretending that they are.
I won’t say that distorted media creation won’t succeed, and get Trump elected, against whoever his opponent turns out to be. But yes, it will be extremely weird (as well as absolutely infuriating for those of us who live in America and have to experience what might happen under a second Trump presidency) how we got here and what destination we’ve arrived at.
You forgot the part where he literally raped children and argued after the fact about who deserved to claim one of their virginities.
Allegedly.
Dude it is IMPOSSIBLE to list bad things Trump did without missing some huge ones
Hey did you know his estranged ex-wife died by falling down the stairs, and she’s buried on his property?
I’m not saying that automatically definitively means anything. But tell me one other human being on the planet who that combination of circumstances ever happened to.
Or, alternately, one other human being who was once involved with Trump for which he gives any kind of a shit any which way about where they should be buried.
I’ll wait.
For all your talk and posts why do you not push Chase Oliver, both sides claim third party is death, but literally every normal person I know is Fuck Biden and Fuck Trump, and no polls say either have actually support. Support is literally all tea party and blue no matter who, and these whack jobs wonder why Regular folks are angry, but its all manufactured? Inflation isnt real and the economy is the best ever, like everybody hates trump and Biden fucked that up, i have workers (poc) tell me a racist president is bad but i didnt have to budget milk for my kids, Trump was way better than Biden. But somehow people tell me this crazy? Like maybe you got alot of investments but regular folk dont care the nasdaq rose today especially when they have to tell their kids I cant
Because the reason all third parties fail is that the first-past-the-post counting of votes makes it mathematically impossible. A third party will necessarily steal more votes from one side than the other, making said other side win
If it weren’t for the political realities of how voting works under first-past-the-post, the progressive wing of the Democratic party could have easily split off into a separate party whose younger leadership and willingness to push for actually-meaningful change could probably have run circles around the Dems at this point.
…Man, I really wish I could vote for a presidential candidate that I actually believed in, instead of this “vote for the status-quo neoliberal or democracy dies” bullshit.
This copium is off the charts ridiculous.
I don’t want Trump to win, which is why I think it’s incredibly unhelpful to spread the delusion that current polling is favorable to a Biden victory.
That wasn’t even true before the debate, but at least there were enough polls within the margin of error that it was possible.
Biden’s polling has only gone down since then, while Trump’s have trended upwards. Not by the same margins, but still, opposite directions.
This article is actually arguing about changes in polls that are less than 0.5%, seriously, it’s a joke…
Here is an aggregated page that links out to over 50 different polls for Georgia, one of the states mentioned in the article where Trump it’s supposedly hurting, according to that article:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president-georgia.html
Here’s that same aggregated polling information for the other two states mentioned in the article:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president-michigan.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president-north-carolina.html
Take a look and tell me if that article, much less it’s headline, have any bearing on reality.
Yeah, dems are looking for any positive spin on this reeling campaign.
Posting 538 links here because they aren’t paywalled and are doing similar aggregating with similar results for anyone who doesn’t want to use nyt:
Just FYI, 538 today is not the same as it was when they became noteworthy. Nate Silver left the company (and its parent, Disney). He also took his models with him, since those were merely licensed (unlike the name/company).
The new 538 is being run by a guy with very questionable models.
A friend of mine has right-wing parents who were Trump boosters in 2016. He says that January 6th left them aghast, and they aren’t supporting him now. That’s just two people sure, and this is entirely anecdotal, but it might be indicative of how the wind is blowing.
30% of the people voting in the GOP primary said they wouldn’t necessarily vote for the eventual nominee.
That is a massive and highly unusual number. And, just like so many other things, nobody fuckin knows that, because the media has a code of silence about it like a JV hockey team that just doesn’t talk about Logan’s sex crimes.
They just keep reporting polls of all registered voters who want to answer the phone, trying to correct their ratios and not bothering to try to ascertain who’s likely to vote, and then swearing that 2 point up or down differences in the resulting number are super important.
4 years ago there were a lot of houses with Trump/Pence signs in my neighborhood. Most of them removed their signs after the elections except for a few that had the whole combo police lives matters and don’t thread on me and stuff like that. After jan 6 even those houses removed their signs (and all others) and this year I have not seen any Trump sign in any backyard in the area.
This is what I don’t get. There is so much less trump enthusiasm in Michigan than in 2020. It’s all fucking anecdotal, so go with the data over my observations, but I just can’t see any sign that Trump is a force here.
I’ve seen like 2 Trump bumper stickers and not a single yard sign (I’ll give you the place that literally has his name painted on their garage), which is fucking insane when 3-4 years ago you couldn’t get in your car without seeing at least one yard sign or bumper sticker.
Four years ago, my wife got so much shit for being the only liberal in an office of good ol’ boys. Now, absolutely nothing. I cannot comprehend that the polling reflects none of this.
Dude I saw a faded-ass ‘Bush / Cheney’ sticker on the way home today. Cult is as cult does.
Some people still have some values. 34 felonies, rape, and paying hush money to a porn star you had sex with while your pregnant wife was at home is enough to cost some votes. I don’t care if they vote for Biden, as long as they don’t show up and vote for mr 34 felonies it’s a win for America.
Not voting for the opponent in a two-party race is like a half vote for the other guy, but wouldn’t it be nice if they came around and gave Biden a full vote each?
I understand this impulse. It is popular to demonize people on the other side, and truthfully, their voting for Trump in the past is a severe issue. They once in a while ask me for computer help, but this whole matter has made me reluctant to do it.
I’m not going to call them good people because voting for Trump has identified them as not being among those. But in some ways they’re decent? They don’t think they’re evil. They don’t stab people in the back personally. They work hard. They’re honest face-to-face. it’s mostly on the national stage that their odious beliefs are brought out.
There are lots of people like that here. I feel like, if they can be brought to see, viscerally, what the effects of their political decisions are, that could be the breaking point that changes their political beliefs. January 6th might have been one such event.
I think trump needs to address his electability questions. He hasn’t had any interviews that properly address his issues, just scripted ones with interviewers that like him.
Just today I’ve seen people calling for him to step down so another candidate without his issues can be nominated. He’ll have to do that if voters continue to lose confidence in him.
in Georgia, he has increased his share of the vote by 0.9 percent since the debate, though the Republican Party is still ahead by 3.5 percent.
In Michigan, he has increased his vote share by 0.8 percent making him ahead of Trump by 0.4 percent, and in North Carolina he has also increased his vote share by 0.8 percent, though the Republicans are still ahead by 4 percent.
It feels like the difference is within the margin of error, but I have no clue since they didn’t cite the new poll or the old poll they are comparing it to.
I just can’t believe in any poll that uses landline telephones or any telephones really. Because, who answers an unknown call?
Old conservatives do. All these polls have samples that are biased against young people and mobile phones. Error bounds have increased as smart phones increased their adoption.
I bet these polls are within a couple points of the reality, as they pretty much always have been (even in the era of cell phones). They specifically weight the results based on the expected non-response of various groups. They account for the most obvious objection that anybody could raise about a modern poll (this one).
Polling lead reduced…still leading
