Turkiye tried joining the EU for decades. The Europeans would never accept them no matter how long it took or what Turkiye offered. Turks are too Muslim and too Asian for them; despite abolishing the caliphate, secularizing and adopting the Latin script.
Now though Turkiye can look southward and find prosperity without strings attached. None of the BRICS members share a culture or religion, a more diverse and global community where Turkiye can join as it is.
Turkiye is a regional power, it has a strong manufacturing base, and while a NATO member and dependent on the West they also have an advanced military industry and that was demonstrated during TAI TF Kaan maiden flight.
I recall there was an interview with the Belarusian ambassador last year where he mentions an interesting point. Belarus found that after they started refocusing their trade towards the east, their trade volume overall was lower, but their profit from trade went up. This is an indication that the west was basically ripping them off.
Would be nice if they also left NATO as part of joining BRICS.
I personally can’t see how NATO can last much longer after the Ukraine debacle.
They won’t stop because of shame. I don’t see why they would disband. The propaganda campaign has only made it easier for them to expand.
The problem they have is that they have nowhere to expand to, and from US perspective there is nothing more that can be achieved there going forward. The US simply doesn’t have the resources to take on Iran, China, and Russia all at the same time, so they’re going to have to pick their battles going forward. The US sees China as the primary adversary, and I expect that Asia will be where US focus will increasingly shift. This necessarily means having to cut Europe loose. The other side of this is what we’re seeing happening in France and Germany right now where liberal centre is collapsing. I fully expect that nationalist parties will take power within a few years, and these parties are hostile to NATO.
Expanding might be difficult but I do not see Europe and America breaking military ties. Now that the hegemony is being challenged they are stepping up military investment.
I think if US pulls money that will be the end, and US has to pick its battles at this point. Stepping up military investment is also driving austerity in Europe which is leading to a backlash against NATO. Hence why we’re seeing nationalist parties gaining a lot of support. For example, RN in France and AfD in Germany are both openly hostile to NATO.
Sadly it will continue, especially in Europe, and they might also force their Asian client states to join.
I think it’ll hobble along for a few more years, but I don’t think there’s going to be any faith in the project going forward. If Trump gets elected, he’s almost certainly going to pull funding and force Europe to pay. That will in turn cause a bigger rift across the Atlantic. The liberal centre in France and Germany is already collapsing, and where they go the rest will follow.
