EV sales continue to rise, but the last year of headlines falsely stating otherwise would leave you thinking they haven’t. After about full year of these lies, it would be nice for journalists to stop pushing this false narrative that they could find the truth behind by simply looking up a single number for once.
Here’s what’s actually happening: Over the course of the last year or so, sales of battery electric vehicles, while continuing to grow, have posted lower year-over-year percentage growth rates than they had in previous years.
This alone is not particularly remarkable – it is inevitable that any growing product or category will show slower percentage growth rates as sales rise, particularly one that has been growing at such a fast rate for so long.
In some recent years, we’ve even seen year-over-year doublings in EV market share (though one of those was 2020->2021, which was anomalous). To expect improvement at that level perpetually would be close to impossible – after 3 years of doubling market share from 2023’s 18% number, EVs would account for more than 100% of the global automotive market, which cannot happen.
Instead of the perpetual 50% CAGR that had been optimistically expected, we are seeing growth rates this year of ~10% in advanced economies, and higher in economies with lower EV penetration (+40% in “rest of world” beyond US/EU/China). Notably, this ~10% growth rate is higher than the above Norway example, which nobody would consider a “slump” at 94% market share.
It’s also clear that EV sales growth rates are being held back in the short term by Tesla, which has heretofore been the global leader in EV sales. Tesla actually has seen a year-over-year reduction in sales in recent quarters – likely at least partially due to chaotic leadership at the wayward EV leader – as buyers have been drawn to other brands, while most of which have seen significant increases in EV sales.
Got a PHEV for our family recently, wanted to go full EV but our region just doesn’t have enough charging stations available yet.
While going over the paperwork for the financing, the paperwork guy was talking about how the car company keeps pushing them to order EVs for their lot but they keep refusing. They don’t want to sell EVs because they think people don’t want them, because they think it just “won’t ever work” - so now I think that there may be other car dealers like that who are holding back what options consumers may have in there area. I had to drive 100 miles to buy the PHEV I wanted, none nearby.
Until they make electric vehicles that need as much maintenance and repairs as ICEs car dealers will of course oppose them.
We got a Toyota bz4x (we got a very good deal on it, and I wouldn’t recommend it unless you also get a good deal), and the official maintenance schedule is ridiculous and clearly unnecessary. Every 5k miles, you’re intended to take it to the dealer to make sure the coolant is topped off, the wheel nuts are on tight, and the floor mats are in place. That’s about it. And it’ll pop up a “Maintenance Required” warning on the dash to tell you, and it stays there until you get it done.
Every 5k miles, you’re intended to take it to the dealer to make sure the coolant is topped off, the wheel nuts are on tight
I have 2 EVs (A Hyundai Kona and a BYD Seal), both don’t check the battery coolant until 60,000 kilometers - either toyota doesn’t trust their battery system or your dealer is taking you for a ride
Everything on that list is needed in ICE cars as well - don’t let them change the oil though, 5kmiles for oil changes is far too short and actually harmful to the engine (your least engine wear is around 8k miles on modern oils)
Not much difference. You still need to rotate the tires and such. The engine is complex but generally doesn’t need much maintenance other than oil changes.
Brakes may last the life of the EV (we were already seeing this with hybrids). Not only is there no engine oil, but there’s also no transmission oil, no spark plugs, no catalytic converter, and coolant needs are far reduced. Batteries already coming out of manufacturers are significantly better than what’s going in actual EVs on sale. That should make the heavier weight (more tire wear) go away.
There’s a whole engine life support system that just goes away. It all adds up to much reduced lifetime costs. Especially if you do 90% of your charging at home.
Now, if we could get manufactures to make EVs as actual small cars instead of luxury SUVs, then we’d really see cost reductions. Hell, not even particularly small; a Toyota Corolla isn’t that small, but manufactures seem to think it is. The few options on the market for this (Mini Cooper SE, Nissan Leaf) are lackluster.
Car dealers are very much part of the problem. They’re very reluctant to let go of their comfy little racket.
Someone should tell them they may get more business from EVs. Sure, EVs need less maintenance: which affects all the commodity items you could go anywhere for. However Tesla is vertically integrated and I believe all manufacturers are more so than with ICE. Without commodity parts, there is a higher percentage of service calls that can only be done at a dealer.
Someone should tell them they may get more business from EVs.
Outside of the pandemic, car dealers generally don’t make much money on new cars. Used cars and service is the money maker.
Looking at about 57k new cars in our system the average profit based on cost - price is -1,300. And that’s not factoring in other costs like paying the sales people their commission.
Got a PHEV for our family recently, wanted to go full EV but our region just doesn’t have enough charging stations available yet.
I’ve been a very happy Chevy Volt customer for this reason. 90% of the time, I get around on my 50 mile charge just fine. But if I’m going on a road trip, I get another 400 miles out of my 7 gallon tank.
Shame Chevy gave up on the Volt as soon as the hybrid credits ran out. It seems like the industry is just chasing government subsidies, whether they’re turning out Bush Era Hummers or Obama Era Priuses.
Not just dealers. My brother is an engineer at a legacy car manufacturer and keeps giving me reasons why EVs will never work. If engineering doesn’t want to build EVs because it’ll never work, how will there be a compelling product to sell?
I just did a 1,200 mile road trip in my EV that did seem to affect his attitude though
Thank you this royally pisses me off whenever I hear it from Ford or Chevy. They could be selling like hotcakes but they much rather go back to their cash cows and the oil industry to milk.
They could be selling like hotcakes but they much rather go back to their cash cows and the oil industry to milk.
Have we seen that Ford and Chevy are able to manufacture EVs at a profit? Chevy Bolt reportdely lost $9k per vehicle sold. Ford has reported they’ve lost as much as $40k per vehicle sold on Mach e.
It is absolutely possible to create profitable EVs, but so far Ford and Chevy don’t seem to be able to.
It’s not that they can’t manufacture for a price that can be profitable, it’s that they haven’t yet sold enough to make back their development costs. Most of that “loss” is simply not scaling enough. Every car model has a huge upfront cost of development and manufacturing costs that need to be made back. However if you allocate that over a small number of vehicles, of course it will never happen. They b need to get serious about selling them
It’s not that they can’t manufacture for a price that can be profitable, it’s that they haven’t yet sold enough to make back their development costs.
Thats one possibility, but not the only one. Its possible that the design of the vehicles are too labor intensive so irrespective of scale they will always be unprofitable. We have good indications this may exist for Mach E. It was designed and built very quickly as a “skunkworks” style product to respond to Model Y market dominance (and giant profit margins). Ford used almost exclusively off-the-shelf parts to get it out the door quickly. The consequence to this is lots and lots of labor to use parts designed for another application in a different one. Its all doable and it works to build a product, but potentially at the cost of profitability. At product launch the Mach E was an MSRP of $54,700. Today that same vehicle MSRP is $43,995. Thats a huge amount of margin to give back that would eat up many small production improvements since launch.
When was the last time Ford or Chevy had a car that sold like hotcakes, EV or otherwise? Ford hasn’t even made a car in several years and focuses solely on SUVs/CUVs and trucks. Their only bread and butter is their passenger trucks, which aren’t even being threatened by EVs.
Well until a few years ago when they decided to stop making cars (except the Mustang), they made the best selling vehicle in the world, the F150 and the best selling car, the Ford Focus. That’s why I didn’t understand why they made that decision. The same decision pretty much killed Isuzu in the US. Must not have made them much money, I guess.
To expect improvement at that level perpetually would be close to impossible
Capitalists and cancer cells disagree
Hard to get excited about Electric Vehicles when the major players are Elon fucking Musk and China, contributing to humanity crushing fascism either way, blech. I care where my support and my money goes.
People suggested some other foreign manufacturers that were not China, but if you wanted something made in the US, Rivian is an option, albeit an expensive one.
In a system which demands eternal growth slowing growth is called a slump.
