While election almost certain to be decided by swing states, pollsters explain why growth in national polls is meaningful
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Is that like rubber bands, it’s the same amount only stretched? Like we changed the scales on the graph to make it look bigger.
Is it really normal to write like that headline in English? Because to me it sounds stupid.
Seems increases would be the “normal” word to use.
Semantics but I mean it does actually indicate more people polling for her instead of Turnip so it’s not stretching in that sense.
I think they use that word because in American politics things are so polarized that it really feels like any gain really does seem like stretching the tiny group of people that can be won over like a rubber band.
i agree but the title would become :
“Harris stretches increases lead over Trump in what could be significant increase”
… so then you have twice this same word in the title, which doesn’t sound so good.
Stretching a lead is a sports term. Most commonly in racing. Sports metaphors are common in politics.
oh man I remember how hilary was going to win by such a large margin in those polls.
Except Professor Alan Licthman predicted Hillary would lose then and has predicted a Kamala Harris win. He actually uses a scientific method for his predictions.
Many of the keys are subject to arbitrary interpretation; Nate Silver criticized his process and arguably has a better probability model with more consistent accuracy across thousands of races somewhere around 90%. Key 2 was given to Biden despite the writing on the wall that 2/3 of Democrats wanted a contest both before and after the primaries. Key 3 Incumbency these days is more of a liability with both candidates distancing themselves. Key 9 Scandals have lost a lot of meaning in the Trump era.
Should be noted that he gave a full-throated endorsement of Hillary Clinton… only to predict she’d lose. The thing is, he had originally referenced in two different publications ahead of that prediction that she would specifically lose the popular vote. She didn’t. He then changed his model.
Also I’m not a fan of this guy because he belittled with insults those who called for Biden to step down… Despite not giving a prediction on Biden at the time.
arbitrary interpretation
They aren’t as arbitrary as they seem, it’s just that the media don’t go into the full detail.
For example, key 2 is actually “The candidate is nominated on the first ballot and wins at least two-thirds of the delegate votes”, which is clearly true
Furthermore, the entire point of this method is that it ignores opinion polls. So it makes no difference whether the public actually wanted a primary contest or not. Likewise, it doesn’t matter whether scandals have “lost meaning”.
kamala harris isn’t hillary, though. I heard a recording of myself from like 2005 and a someone was saying “yeah hillary clinton can unite people” and I said “…against her” and I barely cared about politics back then.
the gop has made inroads on the young white dude demographic, largely because of incels. Its more of a tossup for that reason and the electoral college (which lets all agree needs some kind of proportional rank choice fix, or to be dropped entirely for popular vote)
Turnout is typically very poor amongst young people. It will be interesting to see how much young people vote, and the gender breakdown. Because if turnout is consistent across gender, then any of those gains will be wiped out by young women leaning strongly progressive (or at least, liberal).
Really? Because I remember:
- Hillary up +4 in the polls in the final count: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/
- Hillary actually winning the national vote by +2.1 (within margin of error of above): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
- James Comey informing Congress about additional Hillary emails on Oct 28; too late for many polls to absorb the information. These emails turn out to be nothingburgers.
People learned the wrong lesson from 2016 polling.
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https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/28/harris-stretches-lead-over-trump
AND HERE THEY COME INTO THE BACK CORNER IT’S TRUMP IN THE LEAD WITH HARRIS SURGING UP THE INSIDE!!
