Balkanization is very likely under a collapse scenario as the states try to prop themselves up against one another. The moment they are no longer tied together economically, e.g. through imperial unequal exchange via militarism, they will be (1) impoverished and facing domestic unrest and (2) seek to maintain and expand their power, basically becoming (nearly failed) independent states. Who can say what boundaries would exist, it would depend on both larger economic trends and our ability to organize. For example, if the feds are weak/abandoned when the US has a dispersed and self-sustaining industrial base that is very different from a scenario in which it has concentrated agriculture and is reliant on imports. A reliance on imports would mean that border states control import but are dependent on wherever agriculture is viable. Any state with neither is immediately vulnerable, paying economic rent to both kinds of states. Under a dramatic collapse those areas would experience exodus and only become a target of acquisition by powerful interests for natural resources. At the same time, it is possible that by that time the surrounding states had locked down their borders.

The exact circumstances are difficult to predict because they depend on developments beyond our view. But we can predict the kinds of things that might happen and why. We can also say that Balkanization requires precedents, that it is quantitative change becoming qualitative, and that the major binding factor is US impeeialism and that without it the states would likely turn on one another.

Yes there is, or for Mexico taking back some US territory

Less so than a leftist case for it just an inevitable thing thatll happen. The US is big, and divided. The elites might be united in the uniparty but the people arent. Imo there will be an implosion as the empire collapses and the federal government will partially collapse. Youll probably see an initial fascist takeover of things and then as people tire of fascists there will be regional secession movements led by marginalized groups. Climate collapse will just make this worse. Idk what the borders will be but i can almost garuntee it wont be state borders, or national borders. Itll be messier.

Once all empires reach a certain point of decline, separatist movements are inevitable. It happened to all empires in the past and the US will be no exception. Well, I suppose the US could always murder-suicide the world with nukes when it’s at a point of irreversible decline and it doesn’t want China to take the throne.

So assuming the US doesn’t start a hot war with China, it will eventually reach a point of decline where the federal government has only nominal control over its territories. There might be a rump state and it might still have a seat in the UN (or whatever equivalent of the UN), but the US will functionally no longer exist.

Current secessionist movements are just memes. The instant California or Texas even secedes from the US, the US will simply sanction the state to oblivion and politically isolate the state. Without trade or formal state recognition by other countries, how would that state even function? No state is self-sufficient, so how would people in that state even survive without trade?

hawaii, new afrika movement, land back to native populations

uh thats it really