I’ve been saying this for a while, but I believe it will be a large margin win for Harris and the democrats. I don’t believe a large portion of Republicans will actually go to the polls this year. They won’t bring themselves to go show up to the polls. The dems can push this hard and I believe more seats than the dnc are expecting will end up flipping to them.
She needs to win the swing states, not just win the popular vote. And that’s seems like a coin toss.
That’s where I disagree. It will be a clear victory. I was worried he’d win 2016. I was worried he’d win 2020. I’m confident he’ll lose 2024.
So, you got some numbers for next weeks lottery please?
I mean maybe he’ll lose, but who thought he’d win 2016? So maybe not!
Yeah. I honestly don’t know.
Firstly, fucking vote. Don’t get complacent no matter what. Make a plan of how to get to your booth on the big day. A lot of media between now and then will try to make you feel like you don’t need to bother.
That said, having consumed a lot of commentary about this, from organisations I think are reasonably balanced, I just have no idea what to expect.
After the big day, it could be an outright shooting civil war, or Kamala could win in a landslide because republicans are too ashamed to vote, or Trump could claim victory and just get away with it. In any of those starkly different outcomes I’d think “well this was a really predictable outcome”
It all comes down to swing states. If it were popular vote then Harris would win in a landslide.
Well, that will decide whether Harris wins from a legitimate perspective, but Trump just isn’t going to concede no matter what happens.
They’ve been wargaming how to foment uncertainty, and if they can find a way to do so in a state which is not a swing state they will do so.
It’s very clear that if Trump does not win legitimately, he’s going to try to steal victory illigitimately, through manipulation of corrupt officials, through legal proceedings in friendly courts, and through civil unrest if need be. It’s exactly what he did in 2020, but with no preparation. This time round they’ve had 4 years to prep.
Just like what happened in 2016.
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Always good to start your day with some good news.
2 - 1, wow
This is actually pretty dangerous news. Hillary was also leading in the polls.
This is early voting, not really a poll. People are interviewed upon exiting the polls and that data set is linked to the registration data for the precinct. So, there is no data model applied as there is in the polls you are familiar with.
Gah! Why does everyone bring this up? Was no one around in October 2016?!
James Comey, Director FBI, publicly announced they were reopening the investigation into Clinton’s emails, 3 weeks before the election.
Liberals are always saying, “But her emails, hurr!” Yes, her emails. This was explosive news and handed the election to Trump. Doesn’t matter that Clinton later faced no consequences, all the public heard was, “Meh. Maybe she is a criminal. We’re having another look.”
The polls were right, Clinton would have won if not for this absolute bombshell at the 11th hour.
The polls still had her winning up to election night.
These poll numbers are at best worthless, and at worse they’ll make people not vote because it appears that Harris has it in the bag.
