Every year since the day I switched has been my year of the linux desktop
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025 is the year of linux desktop!
And the big question is: Which will happen first; Linux being adopted by the masses or fusion becoming a viable power source?
The only markets Linux doesnβt Dominate are the Desktop and console space. The only thing holding back Desktop domination is Microsoft and itβs vendor lock-in strategy. It says a lot when Microsoft has to use the power of their purse in order to maintain their position. Even Linux dominates in the IoT space with ~80% of the market, despite Microsoft having to make Windows IoT free.
Microsoft does not see Windows as a product since Ballmer left. Itβs more of a liability, because you cannot sell it twice, and you cannot sell a Windows subscription. Windows still makes them just 10% profits, but selling cloud servers and office suite nets them 60% of their profits.
Microsoft IoT is not even a thing, the power of Linux IoT is that you strip everything from your kernel until your system runs on 32 MB RAM.
We joke but SteamOS could be a game changer just because of steamβs userbase.
Itβll take some time because theyβd need to to outshine windows in every way, including ease to use and all the stuff wayland forgot to implement. Right now itβs good enough for the deck, but theyβd have to coaxe Arch into working for everyone.
Having a big customer base you can market to could legitimately open up Linux to desktop as a serious market share.
Even 15 years ago, DEs were pretty solid along with software. It was the lack of OEMs selling hardware that ran Linux along with Microsoftβs monopoly that kept it that way.
Of course if you are brave enough, you can always try it yourself with Nobara or Bazzite, but having Valve put a dedicated team behind their own distro would be very appealing.
Honestly steamdeck plus tpm module requirement for windows 11 is making me give a serious attempt to Linux for the new year. I do a very good job of taking care of my tech, it lasts decades.
I find it infuriating I have to change due to arbitrary OS decisions. I couldβve held onto my original pixel for quite some time, but it was no longer getting the security updates.
I feel like with the hardware requirements linux might see another bump come October
Thatβs actually the same reason I switched to Linux. I thought it was stupid that I would have to upgrade my hardware just to use the latest WindowsME. Switching to Linux back then. Let me enable all the new textures for Everquest. With Windows my system wasnβt performant enough. I though it stupid and I had perfectly good hardware that still ran for several more years just fine. The TPM thing is absolute B.S. and worse then why I switched.
Explorer being ridiculously slow even on a fairly fresh install with the addition of popup ads for black ops/MSFS was enough to make me finally jump over the fence a few weeks ago.
I still have to dual boot for certain games and programs but I had enough of windows being my default environment
Honestly I think SteamOS is the crowbar forcing open the Desktop space. Microsoftβs dominance in the desktop space has been with Normies where they can use the power of their purse to maintain their position. Normies donβt care what OS they run. Normies just want the computer to βdo the thingβ that they need done. Console gaming is a great example of that. None of those gamers care what OS they run and they know nothing about it. If you look at IoT, Windows is free in that space, yet Linux dominates the market by about 80%.
Historically if a big volume OEM sells a PC they are required to sell a Windows license if they want to take advantage of Microsoftβs volume licensing discount. If you are selling 400 dollar and even 800 dollar laptops, a 100 dollar license is a huge chunk of the cost. You have no choice but to take the volume licensing discount as manufacturer. Especially if you also compete for government contracts. The knock-on effect, these OEMs will have to spend money on Windows engineering efforts for each of their devices. Thatβs drivers, software, and testing. And when you are competing on volume, that doesnβt leave much left over profit to have engineering efforts for a second or third operating system.
The kicker for Microsoft, Microsoft waved the license for Windows on devices with screens smaller than 9" in 2014. Which means, the new Lenovo Steam version should come with SteamOS. The Steam version will likely be the more popular version of the Legion Go S. Other OEMs will see that and begin to offer a Steam version of their device. That all means engineering efforts for Linux on all the handhelds. The same thing for Steam consoles, although I wonder how the 9" rule will apply. Game devs are supporting SteamOS more and more. The knock on effects will eventually lead to OEMs no longer taking the volume licensing discounts. You will see Linux machines in the big box stores, especially when these OEMs are spending money to support Linux for the console.
Microsoft doesnβt dominate any space other then the Desktop where theyβve had vendor lockβin for 30 years. The writing is on the wall. They are losing the handheld space and soon they will be #4 in the console space. Microsoft better have something big soon or pandoraβs box will be opened.
If you are selling 400 dollar and even 800 dollar laptops, a 100 dollar license is a huge chunk of the cost.
Gonna note that, on those rare occasions I have the funds to madly research the most optimal PC build I can every likeβ¦7+ yearsβ¦the βOh man, forgot the OS is another $100+!β Always felt like such an insult!
Whelp, now with OpenSUSE Tumbleweed Iβll never have to worry about that again. :)
Yeah that extra Microsoft tax is a killer. Plus, youβll notice your systems seems new and snappy for the life of the hardware, unlike Windows. Where your system gets slower and slower every year. I used a Lenovo Yoga 2 Pro with Ubuntu until a couple years ago. It was great until I just needed a ton more ram and tons of cores for my dev project. I basically out grew the system, it still works great, fast and snappy. Gave it to my cousin who uses it as a daily driver.
Iβve heard good thing about Tumbleweed. Iβm sure that will keep your system feeling fast and new for life of the hardware.
Iβve never known any of my immediate circle of friends and family to have any interest whatsoever. Windows 11 has been the nail in the coffin for one, the steam deck has piqued the interest of another. Year of the Linux desktop is a pipe dream but any step towards greater adoption is a great thing.
I watch a few SteamDeck you tubers and they all have switched to Linux. One is waiting for SteamOS to finally drop. Which I can understand, I mean, he is a normie gamer and isnβt really looking to get into computers, just wants to play games. He sees SteamOS as a silver bullet, since he is problem free on his Steam Deck. Which just reiterates, normies donβt care what OS they run, they just want to do the thing they care about.
I wouldnβt say itβs a pipe dream either. 20 years ago, if I switched someone to Linux, they would eventually have a problem and switch back. Not because Linux was bad or anything like that. Now, if I switch someone, they just keep going with Linux. The year of Linux Desktop already came. It doesnβt dominate yet, but there are few niches that Linux doesnβt support, mostly the audio/art niche.
Iβm an accidental Linux adopter this year. I accidentally bricked a relatively new laptop by messing up an MSConfig setting, and since I didnβt have Windows restore discs, I just switched it to a Linux desktop.
I honestly didnβt know what to expect, but the laptop has been running really smooth since then. I didnβt have a huge Steam library to replace, so the only bummer has been one or two Windows/Mac only apps that I havenβt been able to find Linux replacements for yet. Otherwise, 8/10, would brick my laptop again.
Sick What distro u on? What are the programs? Happy to help find replacements or worste case cenario u can run em in a vm
Thanks, mate. I installed Mint because a couple threads I checked said it was probably the best for people with no experience with Linux. One program I was trying to find a replacement for is a Monte Carlo simulation add-on for MS Excel called SIPMath Modeler tools from probabilitymanagement.org. I just started using LibreOffice as a replacement to Excel, so honestly I havenβt checked out the add-on library yet. Iβm not too worried about it yet since I have an older laptop thatβs air gapped now and still running Excel 2016 if I absolutely need to run the program.
https://youtu.be/oUwX-JrAfVE?si=rSHuiPP13relt6iO
Just did a quick search and this video came up. Maybe it will help point you in the right direction?
