Image is of the Galapagos Islands, sourced from here.
Moving the megathread topic slightly away from the chaos of the United States and going back around the world, we will begin with paying attention to Ecuador.
Ecuador has been ruled by Daniel Noboa since 2023, after he won the snap election. He’s about as ghoulish as one gets; a neoliberal right-winger and as much as a marionette to the United States as Milei. Two months ago, he gave effective control of the Galapagos Islands to the United States and is allowing them to build a military base there - beginning the potential conversion from a natural paradise to unsinkable aircraft carrier.
We are now seeing the rematch between Noboa and Gonzalez; the latter of which is a leftist politician with a similar ideology to Correa, the socialist who ruled Ecuador from 2007 to 2017. The divide in Ecuador today is largely between the Correaists and those who oppose them, though Leonidas Iza represents the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador and commands a notable share of the vote.
Last week’s thread is here.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
President Trump said on Monday that he could cut aid to Jordan and Egypt if they refused his demand to permanently take in most Palestinians from Gaza, substantially increasing the pressure on key allies in the region to back his audacious proposal to relocate the entire population of the territory in order to redevelop it.
The president also said from the White House that if Hamas did not release all the remaining Israeli hostages by “12 o’clock on Saturday,” the cease-fire agreement with Israel should be canceled.
“All hell is going to break out,” Mr. Trump said to reporters in the Oval Office, while acknowledging that the choice over ending the cease-fire ultimately fell to Israel.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/10/us/politics/trump-jordan-egypt-gaza-development.html
Kinda wild that the Americans elected this guy all by themselves and he’s going to just destroy their own country over the next four years and no one else has to lift a finger - and they love him for it.. Like who would have guessed when Survivor aired in 2000 that a reality TV star would eventually unravel the whole place. It just blows my mind to watch this in real time.
The president also said from the White House that if Hamas did not release all the remaining Israeli hostages by “12 o’clock on Saturday,” the cease-fire agreement with Israel should be canceled.
“All hell is going to break out,” Mr. Trump said to reporters in the Oval Office, while acknowledging that the choice over ending the cease-fire ultimately fell to Israel.
The first serious challenge to Trump’s madman diplomacy, where he threatens the opponent with overwhelming force if they don’t provide some concessions. Let’s see if this will work with Hamas, Israel, Qatar, Iran, etc. This is all about leverage here, Hamas is not going to give up all the remaining hostages, and thus all the leverage they have, until they get some guarantees with regards to phase 3 of the ceasefire, the rebuilding and governance of Gaza. Hamas wants to remain in a position where they have some leverage, and with Israel withdrawing from the Netzarim Corridor for the start of phase 2 of the ceasefire and giving that up, this is the only opportunity Hamas has to be in this position where they have this much sway, so they will make use of it. I just hope this doesn’t end up escalating to where Gaza is getting bombed again…
cut aid to Egypt
This is not what the “realist zionists” want to hear. The US has essentially been paying Egypt off since the Camp David Accords to not fight isntrael and all the US interventions. Egypt has been #2 in US milliary aid for decades because at least they had enough sense to charge a high price for, let’s be honest, betraying the rest of the Arab world. But the Egyptian government sees that aid as payment for services rendered, not charity. Cutting that aid will only increase tensions between Egypt and the Zionist entity and could even provoke Egypt into searching for a new ally for its defense needs.
Not to say Egypt would go to war over this though, they are way too reliant on US equipment to afford that (its like 85% American procurements). Despite that overreliance, Egypt is still not in a situation where they will rapidly collapse if the US ends military aid, so despite the high cost this isn’t as much leverage Trump probably thinks it is. Bush and Obama tried yanking on this chain during the Arab spring, when the Egyptian government was on much shakier ground, and Egyptians didn’t budge. Nothing came of it because those ghouls knew the US was getting to much out of the aid to cut it over trying to support a color revolution. So I really don’t see Egypt moving over this threat. If trump does actually cut the aid, then LMAO I’m sure China will be happy sell whatever Egypt needs replacements for.
Nah, Egypt has too close a relationship with Saudi Arabia to meaningfully change their stance towards Iran.
jfc is this the new American past time or something.
not really liking seeing more of this when i have to fly next week
wish me luck lol
also how tf does it just veer off
I am finding it hard not to catastrophize on the rumblings that the administration may start openly defying court orders. On a domestic front, it seems like a point of no return towards naked fascism.
Nah let’s fucking go. The American courts are probably the most reactionary system in existence, they are irredeemably fascist already. Let the whole thing collapse, break all the rules, let’s stomp this stupid fucking constitution into the mud and be done with it
Let the whole thing collapse, break all the rules, let’s stomp this stupid fucking constitution into the mud and be done with it
In spite of the position here that power doesn’t need to listen to its own rules, and that the state isn’t a chess board but rather a tool used to maintain class society, it is still somewhat scary to me that this is happening, because it makes things a bit harder to predict.
https://xcancel.com/MintPressNews/status/1889035808747016366#m
Richard Medhurst arrested again, this time in Austria after literally being accused of being a member of Hamas.
text
Richard Medhurst arrested in Austria and accused of Hamas membership
Last week, Austrian authorities detained journalist Richard Medhurst following a raid on his home and studio, where police seized all of his electronic devices. Medhurst is facing accusations of being a “member of Hamas” and charges under the terrorism act, which could result in a prison sentence of over 10 years.
Medhurst emphasises that the terrorism charges are a direct result of his reporting on Palestine, particularly his coverage of the Israeli genocide in Gaza. Medhurst has also pointed to British influence, suggesting that pressure from the UK played a role in his arrest.
Even if he were a member of hamas, whatever that means I doubt there’s a party card or something, what did he do besides report?
what did he do besides report?
I never followed him very closely, but as far as I can tell, nothing. At most maybe he did a donation drive or something, but so did a whole lot of people. It’s just about trying to silence a prominent voice for Palestine and a ruthless critic of Western empire.
I’m just going to address the latest Israeli PsyOp that has hit the news media, primarily being spread by the German outlet Bild, and Turkish newspapers. This PsyOp being that Israel has obtained a GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) bomb from the United States, and that they plan to use it against Iran’s hardened nuclear facilities.
There are two problems with this idea. The first is the idea that the MOAB is a “bunker buster” bomb that can be used for this mission. The truth is that it’s not a bunker buster bomb, as the name states it’s an air blast bomb, it does not penetrate deeply into the ground before exploding, it actually detonates above the ground. The lightweight aluminium casing of the MOAB is not designed to penetrate anything either. So it cannot be used to strike against deep bunkers in the mountains, such as Iran’s nuclear facilities. There appears to be some confusion here, people confusing the huge overpressure effect that can occur when a MOAB is dropped in a valley or an open cave complex (as it was in Afghanistan) with bunker buster/penetrator capabilities.
The second issue is the delivery method. The only way of delivering the MOAB is to fly a modified C-130 transport aircraft directly over the target, and drop it out of the back of the plane. Israel have C-130s, but flying one over Iran would be a suicide mission, it would be shot down instantly. So the MOAB would never reach Iran.
The truth is also, that no such deal for a MOAB has occurred. I managed to track down the primary source of the misinformation that all these articles are quoting, and it’s a Fox News segment between Sean Hannity and Steve Witkoff, in which Witkoff says that Israel already has “bunker buster bombs”, likely referring to the 2000lb BLU-109. The MOAB is never even mentioned. These articles are completely fabricating and hallucinating something that was never even said.
The bomb that Israel would need to strike Iranian hardened nuclear facilities is the GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), which is only carried by the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber of the United States Air Force. The United States did use the B-2 and MOP combination in Yemen last year, in a clear warning to Iran. Israel will not get this capability, the United States reserves it for only itself. Which is how the power dynamics play out, meaning Israel cannot “go it alone” with air strikes against Iranian bunkers deep in the mountains. They would require the participation of the United States. Israel can “go it alone” in other ways against Iran as they have shown, but not in that specific capability.
The second issue is the delivery method. The only way of delivering the MOAB is to fly a modified C-130 transport aircraft directly over the target, and drop it out of the back of the plane. Israel have C-130s, but flying one over Iran would be a suicide mission, it would be shot down instantly. So the MOAB would never reach Iran.
Never actually knew the delivery of a MOAB is a fucking C-130, that’ll be an easy target in a conventional war imo. At least, this system against a conventional enemy is unreliable to say the least, like I can’t imagine one or a couple of slow C-130s trying to strike say a Russian grouping with a MOAB, they will never make it. This leads me to believe the MOAB was designed with COIN in mind, to be used against enemies that have little to no way of countering an air force’s operations.
The MOAB can trace its origins to the “Daisy Cutter” bombs that were used in Vietnam to clear sections of forests so that helicopters and/or paratroopers could land. It’s just a much bigger version of that. Modern day use seems to be for psychological impact against enemies that can’t effectively counter it. A weapon of intimidation and anti personnel weapon against large groupings of insurgents.
Israeli PsyOps are just so pervasive, they even hit all lots of resistance media outlets. I still remember when the news megathread accurately predicted Israel’s attack on Iran (in terms of what Israel would hit and the tactics), then Israeli PsyOps started a few hours before their attack, which drove us all into a panic. It’s part of why I created this account, to try find the primary sources of information, post them, and analyse them ourselves, instead of relying on journalists and outlets which don’t know their arse from their elbow, are days behind on reporting, use AI LLMs for their research getting key information wrong in the process, etc.
Also want to add the really depressing truth that if there is any future deal for sending a MOAB to Israel (none exists currently and I don’t expect any to materialise in future, but in the very rare case it happens), the target will not be Iran. It would be Gaza or southern Lebanon…
Surely Iran built their nuclear facility deeper than what they’d expect could be hit with conventional or nuclear weapons
Next you’ll tell me the leader of Hamas is just strolling about Gaza
The MOP is not your ordinary bunker buster bomb, it’s a 30 000lb/14 000kg bomb that’s only 20% explosive by weight, consisting of just under 6000lbs of plastic bonded explosives. The casing is made of hardened metals like tungsten, and the bomb only explodes when it stops penetrating, or at a certain depth, depending on the fuse used. Early documents on the bomb’s design state that it can penetrate over 200ft/60m of reinforced concrete. And each B-2 Spirit stealth bomber carries two of them. No one really knows how far it can penetrate. Nasrallah’s bunker in Beirut was destroyed by 2000lb bunker buster bombs called the BLU-109, between 60-80 were dropped on the bunker and surrounding buildings. These bombs can penetrate up to 12ft/4m of reinforced concrete.
This video shows the impact of a one of these BLU-109 2000lb bunker buster bombs, how it penetrates the earth before exploding. The MOP weighs 15 times more and can penetrate a depth 17 times deeper than the BLU-109.
Now imagine a crater 17 times deeper, that’s the penetration capabilities of the MOP…
