Will he win again? Time will tell - he still needs to make it through the primaries, and I think Ron DeSantis is playing better with old school republicans than Trump ever did, but last time Trump did beat Mitt Romney who was pretty widely respected, so its certainly possible. If that happens, I think he is likely to beat Biden. A lot of people voted Biden because he was distinctly “Not Trump”, but his victory’s have been poorly televised, and his defeats make him look ineffectual and near senile (thanks Murdoch media).
He has already said that if he is elected he will pardon himself. That’s never been done before, so would almost certainly go to the supreme court, but since thats Republican controlled I would expect that to get rubber stamped. He’s not going to prison if he wins.
Except that he could be convicted before the election in New York and Georgia.
POTUS has no pardon power over state crimes.
Right, that wasn’t in question. I was responding to this poster saying that if he won the election, he’d pardon himself and not go to prison. I was just reminding him that Trump would not have that option for state crimes. So he’d be using an 8x6 cell instead of the Oval Office.
Yes - obviously if he does get sent to prison he cannot be elected president. I don’t think there’s precedent for this, so it’d probably go to the supreme court too, but since convicts can’t vote I ASSUME they can’t run.
Bad assumption. No law prevents running while in prison. Eugene Debs ran for president while in prison, for example.
Oops, good catch, I was misremembering.
Mitt was the 2012 republican Nominee against Obama, but he didn’t run for the 2016 primary. Ted Cruz was the second frontrunner that Trump beat. Now I wonder if Mitt would have beaten Trump in 2016, because I stand by that he was pretty well respected, but I guess we’ll never know.
A lot of people voted Biden because he was distinctly “Not Trump”, but his victory’s have been poorly televised, and his defeats make him look ineffectual and near senile (thanks Murdoch media).
I mean you’re right but…
Biden is still “not trump”, and most people likely to be influenced by Murdoch media are probably already trump voters. Also Trump’s position has deteriorated a lot since the last election - the legal problems must have cost him some supporters at least. Surely there’s a not-insignificant number of people that are starting to realise that his populist rhetoric is just that - he hates his base.
Even if elected, the Fourteenth Amendment bans Mr. Trump from legally serving without the approval of 2/3 of Congress, due to his participation in insurrection against the United States. Section 3 says:
No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.
I think he would have had to be convicted of that. Even though it’s exactly what he did, he hasn’t been convicted of anything really. The only shit that ever sticks with him are low stakes civil cases he can just throw money at…
You’re probably right, but has he been convicted of such? If he gets convicted of sharing secret documents is that equivalent? And if he gets convicted, what does the current no prison plea ultimately settle at regarding conviction of charges?
I think if he runs then he will lose because he has burned bridges with a lot of Republicans and swing voters. Biden is doing a pretty good job and with Desantis he is pissing off a lot of Republicans also.
As much as I’d like to say, “Oh, there’s no way in hell he’d win,” I remember saying the same thing in 2016, and here we are. Definitely a Constitutional crisis that would make it up to the Supreme Court, but yeah, we already know how the Conservative majority would decide on it.
Just like every other election, it just depends how many corporations put money behind him.
