When a poll shows that Russians support the war, people are saying that Russians are bad. But when a poll shows that Russians don’t support the war, people are questioning the poll.
This is because if you watch the war closely, you’ll see that russkies are supporting the war. It started with ~140k troops. Now, after losing about 150k to 300k, there are 400k troops. And there’s no active draft, too much of them are collectors contractors volunteered to go and kill Ukrainians.
The biggest mystery to me is why people with knowledge barely above zero are talking on the internet like they’re experts.
They volunteered because the monthly salary is more than most Russians earn in a year, especially in Southern/Eastern regions with no opportunities. Most sign up for the money, nothing more or less.
That’s a totally valid reason for invading another country and committing war crimes. Where can I sign up?
Is it possible to even measure public opinion in a totalitarian society?
There’s actually a few different methods that can give you at least more accurate results if not 100% accurate (which polling never really is in the first place.)
Eg. list experiments are a potentially useful method. You start off with a list of statements like “I like candy” or whatever and you ask people how many of those they agree with (ie. not which ones, just the amount), which gives you an approximate baseline. Then you give another set of people the same list but with eg. “I support the war in Ukraine” added on (hypothetical example, nobody please get pedantic about the wording), and you then compare the total number of agreed-on statements with your baseline. Here’s an example from LSE last year that used this method: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/04/06/do-russians-tell-the-truth-when-they-say-they-support-the-war-in-ukraine-evidence-from-a-list-experiment/
That’s also used in surveys in democratic countries. The example I heard in statistics class was the question “did you ever visit a prostitute”. It’s obvious that you need to anonymize that to get somewhat honest answers.
a totalitarian society
Afaik Russia isn’t totalitarian yet. They’re “only” authoritarian. In the latter there’s still a lot of private life left that isn’t dictated by the state and therefore a lot of room to wiggle in a survey. That obviously doesn’t mean you can get surveys with a western standard, but you can indeed gauge public opinion. Real authoritarian regimes are actually quite rare. I can’t think of any examples besides North Korea and Afghanistan that clearly fit at the moment.
How can anybody make an opinion poll in Russia that is even remotely accurate? This is just rubbish.
There was an interesting methodology I read about. Basically, they read 4 statements and asked how many (not which!) the interviewee agreed with.
Then they did the same thing with 5 statements, where the 5th was what they actually wanted to find out. With a large enough sample size on both and the power of math, they can essentially deduct test 1 from test 2 to find out how many people agree with the 5th statement without anybody outing themselves to the FSB.
It is called the “unmatched count technique” or “list experiment.” It has a wider error range, so you need to poll more people, but you get honest answers.
I saw some article about polling in the last week or two where a lot or maybe most of the people who now wanted peace still didn’t think they should give up Crimea.
Feels like a very have your cake and eat it too kinda stance. “We didn’t do anything wrong but the consequences of our actions suck so we should prob tone it down… but to reiterate, we weren’t in the wrong”
substrate propaganda battle
slava ukraini
