I’m putting this up early since it’s likely I won’t have time tomorrow.
Monday, 1/15, is the date of the Iowa Caucus, please direct all comments, links, and replies involving that here!
Edit - 5:36 PM Pacific, 7:36 PM Iowa time, 8:36 PM Eastern - MSNBC declares Trump the winner (shock!)
8:23 PM Pacific, 10:23 PM Iowa time, 11:23 PM Eastern. MSNBC declares Desantis #2, Haley #3.
90% reporting:
Trump - 51% - 52,912
Desantis - 21.3% - 22,140
Haley - 19% - 19,762
Edit Next Up - 1/23 - New Hampshire Primary!
For those unaware, a caucus is totally unlike a primary.
In a primary election, you show up to a polling place, you cast your ballot for your chosen candidate, the ballots get counted, and whoever wins is whoever wins. On to the next state!
A caucus is far, far more chaotic.
“The Republican caucuses will convene statewide at 7 p.m. local time (8 p.m. EST), and begin with the election of a caucus chair and secretary. Only registered Republicans may participate in the caucuses and only in their designated home precincts. However, Iowans may register or change their party affiliation on caucus day. Voters must turn 18 by the November general election in order to participate.”
“There is no walking around the caucus room to form candidate preference groups. That voting method was a feature of Democratic caucuses from 1972 to 2020 but is no longer in use by either party in 2024.”
“The binding presidential vote functions essentially like a party-run primary, only with very limited polling hours and no accommodation for absentee voting, except for a tiny handful of overseas and military voters. There are speeches on behalf of various candidates before the voting and a variety of party business after the vote. Individual caucus chairs are allowed to exercise some discretion in how to conduct the vote, but the voting is done by secret ballot and there is no set list of candidates. Voters must be given the option to vote for any candidate they choose. In the past, some caucus sites have pre-printed the names of major candidates and provided a write-in option, but typically, voters vote by writing the name of a candidate on a blank slip of paper.”
The “limited polling hours” is key here, because if you decide to step out for a smoke, or to hit the bathroom, or grab a sandwich when the vote is called, you might not get counted at all.
In previous years this has led to accusations of under-counts, over-counts, and all other manner of shenanigans.
Here’s the history of the past few Iowa Caucuses and how it related to the general election:
2016:
Ted Cruz - 8 Delegates, 51,666 votes
Donald Trump - 7 / 45,429
Marco Rubio - 7 / 43,228
Ben Carson - 3 / 17,394
Rand Paul - 1 / 8,481
Jeb Bush - 1 / 5,238
Carly Fiorina - 1 / 3,485
John Kasich - 1 / 3,474
Mike Huckabee - 1 / 3,345
2020:
Donald Trump - 39 Delegates, 31,421 votes
Bill Weld - 1 / 425
Sources:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses
General Elections:
2016:
Trump/Pence - 800,983
Clinton/Kaine - 653,669
2020:
Trump/Pence - 897,672
Biden/Harris - 759,061
Sources:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Iowa
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Iowa
I don’t think anyone is excited because it’s a race to see who gets to lose to Trump by 30-40 points. :)
But as a political junkie, I’ll follow it anyway… The big ramification is, if Desantis comes in a distant 3rd, the calls for him to drop out will be impossible to ignore.
A 3rd or worse finish in New Hampshire and he’s done.
Isn’t Haley way ahead in NH? She was pretty close to trump a week or so ago.
I’m bummed Christie dropped before I could shit vote for him. Not sure who to waste a primary vote on now.
the only way any of this matters is if - in a few months - Trump is, somehow, stricken from the ballots in enough states to matter or is ruled as ineligible to run at all. or if he dies.
otherwise, he’ll be the GOP candidate, and these also-rans will be as irrelevant then as they are now. if he chooses on as a running mate, it’ll be based on their ability to kiss his ass, not really on the polls.
well, since it’s gone to SCOTUS, don’t expect much movement until they make a ruling. Honestly, i expect them to realize that the only thing they can do is say, “it’s a state issue,” and kick it back down to the states to decide who gets on what ballot.
the only thing they might dip their toe in on is what is or is not “insurrection”, although i rather doubt it because i don’t know whether that’s actually an issue being challenged.
I don’t think they’re going to rule on Trump and insurrection at all because that’s the subject of a criminal case.
There’s no way they’re going to put the thumb on the scale and determine guilt or innocence in a case that hasn’t even happened yet.
Saying “Yes, Trump is an insurrectionist, remove him from the ballot” or “No, it’s fine, he can stay.” would do exactly that.
Does Iowa have a weather plan?
There are a bunch of different plans organized around getting people to the polls, particularly the elderly. But, yeah, it’s an added layer of complication.
Cool beans. I hope they will offer similar services to the Democratic period if needed!
The Democratic caucus in Iowa is being done completely differently:
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/iowa-democrats-new-caucus-process-work/story?id=106133768
"Unlike their Republican counterparts, the Iowa Democratic Party will not host an in-person presidential preference contest, opting instead for mail-in ballots listing incumbent President Joe Biden, Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips, Marianne Williamson, and an option for “uncommitted.”
The party started accepting requests for these cards via a Google form on the party’s website and by mail on Nov. 1, 2023. And while they will start to be mailed out to voters on Jan. 12, they will not be accepted in person at the caucuses.
All cards must be postmarked by March 5, a date when more than a dozen other states hold their primaries, otherwise known as Super Tuesday."
Blergh…
A race to see which gets the privilege of restricting my bodily autonomy and demonizing me as a threat to civilization. Fuck em all, I was paying attention to the last few races but now I am gonna insulate myself from the whole myopic process.
The thing I dislike about the Iowa caucus is it has to be held in person for a few brief hours. The right to vote is sacred. but it’s taken away from first responders like cops, firefighters, paramedics, and hospital employees that have to work during those hours. There are also retail and service worker employees that can’t get off work during those hours. I hope Iowa ends the caucus and switches to voting for their primaries for future elections. The right to vote should never be infringed upon.
There are entirely too many states with caucuses. But the Democratic party in Iowa is doing theirs by mail, you just have to request a ballot:
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/iowa-democrats-new-caucus-process-work/story?id=106133768
