Every day there’s more big job cuts at tech and games companies. I’ve not seen anything explaining why they all seam to be at once like this. Is it coincidence or is there something driving all the job cuts?
A few things happened pretty quickly.
During the pandemic, tech profits soared which led to massive hiring sprees. For all the press about layoffs at the big guys, I think most still have more workers than they did pre-pandemic.
Interests rates soared. Before the pandemic interest rates were ludicrously low, in other words it cost almost nothing to borrow money. This made it easier to spend on long term or unclear projects where the hope seemed to be “get enough users, then you can monetize.” Once interest rates rose, those became incredibly expensive projects, so funding is now much more scarce. Companies are pulling back on bigger projects or, like reddit, trying to monetize them faster. Startups are also finding it harder, so fewer jobs.
And of course, AI. No one is quite sure how much that’ll change the game but some folks think most programmers will be replaceable, or at least 1 programmer will be able to do the work of several. So, rather than hire and go through everything severance etc might entail, I think a lot of companies are taking a wait and see approach and thus not hiring.
I want to offer my perspective on the AI thing from the point of view of a senior individual contributor at a larger company. Management loves the idea, but there will be a lot of developers fixing auto-generated code full of bad practices and mysterious bugs at any company that tries to lean on it instead of good devs. A large language model has no concept of good or bad, and it has no logic. It’ll happily generate string-templated SQL queries that are ripe for SQL injection. I’ve had to fix this myself. Things get even worse when you have to deal with a shit language like Bash that is absolutely full of God awful footguns. Sometimes you have to use that wretched piece of trash language, and the scripts generated are horrific. Remember that time when Steam on Linux was effectively running rm -rf /* on people’s systems? I’ve had to fix that same type of issue multiple times at my workplace.
I think LLMs will genuinely transform parts of the software industry, but I absolutely do not think they’re going to stand in for competent developers in the near future. Maybe they can help junior developers who don’t have a good grasp on syntax and patterns and such. I’ve personally felt no need to use them, since I spend about 95% of my time on architecture, testing, and documentation.
Now, do the higher-ups think the way that I do? Absolutely not. I’ve had senior management ask me about how I’m using AI tooling, and they always seem so disappointed when I explain why I personally don’t feel the need for it and what I feel its weaknesses are. Bossman sees it as a way to magically multiply IC efficiency for nothing, so I absolutely agree that it’s likely playing a part in at least some of these layoffs.
So basically, once again, management has no concept of the work and processes involved in creating/improving [thing], but still want to throw in the latest and greatest [buzzword/tech-of-the-day], and then are flabbergasted why their devs/engineers/people who actually do the work tell them it’s a bad idea.
I’m pretty excited about LLMs being force multipliers in our industry. GitHub’s Copilot has been pretty useful (at times). If I’m writing a little utility function and basically just write out the function signature, it’ll fill out the meat. Often makes little mistakes, but I just need to follow up with little tweaks and tests (that it’ll also often write).
It also seems to take context of my overall work at the time somehow and infers what I’ll do next occasionally, to my astonishment.
It’s absolutely not replacing me any time soon, but it sure can be helpful in saving me time and hassle.
Those little mistakes drove me nuts. By the end of my second day with copilot, I felt exhausted from looking at bad suggestions and then second guessing whether I was the idiot or copilot was. I just can’t. I’ll use ChatGPT for working through broad issues, catching arcane errors, explaining uncommented code, etc. but the only LLM whose code output doesn’t generally create a time cost for me is Cody.
A large language model has no concept of good or bad, and it has no logic.
Tragically, this seems to be the minority viewpoint - at least among CS students. A lot of my peers seem to have convinced themselves that the hallucination machines are intelligent… even when it vomits unsound garbage into their lap.
This is made worse by the fact that most of our work is simple and/or derivative enough for to usually give the right answer, which reinforces the majority “thinking machine” viewpoint - while in reality, generating an implementation of using only ~ and | is hardly an Earth-shattering accomplishment.
And yes, it screws them academically. It doesn’t take a genius to connect the dots when the professor who encourages Copilot use has a sub-50% test average.
In my experience copilot for neovim is pretty useful if you
- Split the current window if you have anything like type declarations in a separate file
- Write a pretty verbose documentation, e.g. using Swagger.
If you expect it to whip out of thin air what you really need and not have you correct it in several places, learn to code without it first.
To add to this, at my company, we’ve received a mandate to avoid putting any code into an AI prompt because of privacy concerns. So effectively no one is using it here.
a shit language like Bash
There’s your mistake, treating bash like a language and not like a scripting tool. Its strength is that it’s a common standard available on almost every machine because its older than most of us, its weakness is that it’s full of horribly outdated syntax because its older than most of us. If used to script other processes it’s great, but when you start using it as a language then the number of ways you can do something horrible that sort of works makes JavaScript look slick!
I’m here to repeal and replace good things, and I’m all out of “replace”.
Let’s not throw the baby out with the bath water. AI had the potential to alleviate a lot of pressures of society, to free up much of our time spent doing tedious mindless tasks. We just need to make sure to use it for the benefit of the many rather than the profit of the few. I don’t want a union that wants to keep labor busy and well compensated, I want a union that keeps people safe, happy, and compensated properly
Interests rates soared. Before the pandemic interest rates were ludicrously low, in other words it cost almost nothing to borrow money. This made it easier to spend on long term or unclear projects where the hope seemed to be “get enough users, then you can monetize.” Once interest rates rose, those became incredibly expensive projects, so funding is now much more scarce. Companies are pulling back on bigger projects or, like reddit, trying to monetize them faster. Startups are also finding it harder, so fewer jobs.
Note that this also impacted other projects that take a lot of capital up front, then provide a return over a very long term. There was a nuclear power plant project with NuScale in Utah that got shelved over this; with interest rates suddenly going from way low to way high, the economics get upended.
I’d bet that in general, infrastructure spending dropped across the board.
1 programmer will be able to do the work of several
This is true right now. If you know how to use AI tools, it’s not that hard to work 5-10x faster as a programmer than it used to be. You still have to know what you’re doing, but a lot of the grunt work and typing that used to comprise the job is now basically gone.
I have no idea, but I can’t possibly imagine that that’s having no impact on resource allocation and hiring / firing decisions.
Want to have a programming contest where speed is a factor?
I actually looked this up, and the studies seem to agree with you. That one says a 55% increase in speed, and another says 126%.
All I can really say is, I’d agree with the statement that a single 3-hour task isn’t real representative of the actual overall speedup, and my experience has been that it can be a lot more than that. It can’t replace the human who needs to understand the code and what needs to happen and what’s going wrong when it’s not working, but depending on what you’re doing it can be a huge augmentation.
I love the speed-up. And I’m sure it factors into CEO and CIO decisions. But they’re on their way to learning, once again, that “code faster” never had anything to do with success or failure in efforts that require programmers.
Source: I sought great power, and I became one of the fastest coders, but it didn’t make my problems or my boss’s problems go away.
If you know how to use AI tools
Can you elaborate on this part? What’s your idea of proper usage?
So maybe I don’t know what I’m talking about. I will only share what I have experienced from using them. In particular I haven’t messed with Copilot very much after the upgrade to GPT-4, so maybe it’s a lot more capable now.
In my experience, Copilot does a pretty poor job at anything except writing short blocks of new code where the purpose is pretty obvious from context. That’s, honestly, not that helpful in a lot of scenarios, and it makes the flow of generating code needlessly awkward. And at least when I was messing with it there didn’t seem to be a way to explicitly hint to it “I need you to look at this interface and these other headers in order to write this code in the right way.” And, most crucially, it’s awkward to use it to modify or refactor existing blocks of code. It can do small easy stuff for you a little faster, but it doesn’t help with the big stuff or modifying existing code, where those are most of your work day.
To me, the most effective way to work with AI tools was to copy and paste back and forth from GPT-4 – give it exactly the headers it needs to look at, give it existing blocks of code and tell it to modify them, or have it generate blocks of boilerplate to certain specifications (“make tests for this code, make sure to test A/B/C types of situations”). Then it can do like 20-30 minutes’ worth of work in a couple of minutes. And critically you get to hold onto your mental stamina; you don’t have to dive into deep focus in order to go through a big block of code looking for things that use old-semantics and convert them to new-semantics. You can save your juice for big design decisions or task prioritization and let it do the grunt-work. It’s like power tools.
Again, this is simply my experience – I’ll admit that maybe there are better workflows that I’m just not familiar with. But to me it seemed like after the GPT-4 transition was when it actually became capable of absorbing relatively huge amounts of code and making new code to match with them, or making modifications of a pretty high level of complexity in a fraction of the time that a human needs to spend to do it.
Do you work in a technical role? I’ve dabbled in using AI to help out when working on projects, but I would say it’s hit or miss on actually helping, as in sometimes it helps me move a bit faster and sometimes it slows me down.
However, that’s just for the raw “let’s write some code part of the work”. Anything beyond that in my roles and responsibilities doesn’t really intersect with what AI can currently do, so I’m not sure where I would get a 5-10x speed-up from.
Honestly I’m not sure if I’m taking a wrong approach or if everyone else is blowing things out of proportion.
It’s interest rates.
Loans are more expensive, but critically, so are eggs.
Tech workers like eggs, and see no reason to buy fewer, so they’re asking for more money, unionizing, or hopping jobs to increase their salaries.
Notice how the big players are releasing press releases each layoff? No attempt at secrecy. No payouts to NDA the laid off employees. It’s an intimidation tactic.
It’s working at the moment, but tech workers get over their job change discomfort fast when there’s a 100% raise on the table. The market rate vs curent pay gap just creates pressure to change jobs until they do, even if they’re scared.
And the shareholders are all fucked.
Every tech layoff is a lottery ticket toward a company ending event. And then every employee who leaves because they realize the company is incapable of loyalty. Then every worker who leaves because their suppressed wages aren’t keeping up with their expenses or hobbies. Another chance to end the company. Nobody knows which perl script is the lynchpin of their company, or which random person will leave with all knowledge of it.
The CEOs are positively aggressively collecting chances to bankrupt their shareholders.
But the CEO will get a nice payout next quarter. So that’s nice.
Every tech layoff is a lottery ticket toward a company ending event. And then every employee who leaves because they realize the company is incapable of loyalty. Then every worker who leaves because their suppressed wages aren’t keeping up with their expenses or hobbies. Another chance to end the company. Nobody knows which perl script is the lynchpin of their company, or which random person will leave with all knowledge of it.
Plus, as this happens the first/second/third time to new employees, they lose any sense of company-loyalty they might have had at their first job. The next time anything goes wrong, these people are already writing applications, and then quitting the moment they get an offer somewhere.
This behavior by company trains people to associate fuck all with their current job. Which is a good attitude as a worker, but usually not something a company would have wanted, historically. A privately held company would usually want to aim for high worker loyalty, allowing them to endure bad market times without immediately shedding most of their workforce.
Modern shareholders+C-suites behavior reinforces this, however. Everything goes in the name of saving the quarterly report and making it look good and paying out your own bonuses.
There are laws around how layoffs have to be communicated. Secret layoffs at large companies aren’t a thing.
NDA’s occur at the start of employment. When someone is laid off, there is typically a severance that includes a separation agreement, these may have an NDA clause.
The rest of this I agree with. This is being pushed by the shareholders. The scare tactic is an added bonus.
Unionize.
Secret layoffs at large companies aren’t a thing.
Yeah. They aren’t supposed to be a thing.
I’ve seen periods when a bunch of colleagues used to work for XYZ, and then didn’t, and were real quiet about why they left, and “didn’t have any hard feelings”. (And remodeled the bathroom the same month they stopped working at XYZ.) So I assumed they got an illegal NDA and a fat goodbye bonus to keep them from questioning it.
I guess I’m technically just making assumptions as deeply cynical person.
Edit: and I imagine the lawyers involved set the whole thing up so it’s technically not a secret layoff, by strict legal standards. Smelled like one, though. :)
Edit 2: Could also just have been a company below some legal size cut-off, I suppose.
Weirdly, my first thought was eggs as in trans people who don’t know it yet. I really didn’t expect eggs in the literal meaning in that sentence…
Is that a real metaphor that people use? I’ve never heard of it referring to trans people before. But that’s not my community.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in order to cause layoffs. The capitalist class wanted to enlarge the reserve army of labor so that workers would be too worried about losing their jobs to demand raises.
‘You Are Gambling With People’s Lives’: Warren Rips Powell Over Job-Killing Rate Hikes
This is a thing that sounds like some crazy uncle bullshit but it is actually completely true and non-controversial.
The scariest thing to a central banker when it comes to inflation is that wages might start to go up. When that happens the inflations is basically permanent.
People need to understand that the Federal Reserve is the cartel of the US private banks, and that they have captured the US Treasury as well, which is the US sovereign fiat money printer. Just look at the history of people in executive positions at the Treasury and the Fed. It’s a revolving door between those positions and the executive positions at major US banks and corporations.
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Bitcoin solves this. Clear, unambiguous, unchanging monetary policy that doesn’t constantly increase the supply and take a portion of your dollar’s value to give to anybody else. It is not aligned with any country or even block of countries and is truly the first international currency in that sense. No politician or even national or supra-national government can force Bitcoin do do anything that isn’t part of its protocol because it’s so decentralized.
It has been running 24/7 365 for 15 years without a single major security issue in the protocol or a single hour of downtime. With lightning network upgrades, transactions confirm in under a second internationally with fees 1000x less than credit cards, often under a single cent.
It is accessible to anybody in the world with a cell phone and internet access, including the billions, with a B, who don’t have access to stable banking infrastructure or local currency. No credit checks, no needing six forms of ID, no overdraft fees, no bank holidays, no middlemen, no nonsense. And it does this with less electricity than you’d think, less than 1% of global electricity usage, mostly from renewable sources as miners chase the cheapest electricity and the cheapest electricity is from renewables and over-provisioned grids.
Which is ironic because one of the Fed’s chartered purposes is to maximize employment. I guess maximizing profits is more important, even though it’s not on the list.
Yup. From an article I linked to in another comment:
The Federal Reserve Board’s ostensible policy aim is to manage the money supply and bank credit in a way that maintains price stability. That usually means fighting inflation, which is blamed entirely on “too much employment,” euphemized as “too much money.” In Congress’s more progressive days, the Fed was charged with a second objective: to promote full employment. The problem is that full employment is supposed to be inflationary – and the way to fight inflation is to reduce employment, which is viewed simplistically as being determined by the supply of credit.
So in practice, one of the Fed’s two directives has to give. And hardly by surprise, the “full employment” aim is thrown overboard – if indeed it ever was taken seriously by the Fed’s managers.
I actually think it’s just bandwagoning by a bunch of cowards.
We saw this same phenomenon early last year too: Facebook laid off a bunch of employees, then Apple announced the same, then Microsoft, then Google, then Salesforce, then the infamous Twitter layoffs.
I think big tech is so sensitive to negative press that they all just wait and lay off folks at the same time so no single company takes all the bad press.
It doesn’t even have to be Illuminati-level coordination, either. All it takes is for some exec at Tech Company B to see that Tech Company A is firing people. Then Tech Company B decides to clean house too. The cascade is just a bunch of morons deciding to hop on the “let’s fuck over our employees to help our balance sheet” train.
Definitely agree it’s not an Illuminati cabal meeting in hoods and masks.
But it’s not not that either - there’s lots of overlap on boards of directors and VCs invested in these companies. They’re in the same circles and probably play golf together. Or, they hang out on the tarmac before their Davos keynotes on saving the world.
I live in Silicon Valley and I’ve heard that there’s a WhatsApp group with a bunch of “big tech” CEOs and CTOs in it and they chat and share memes with each other 👀
It’s more devious than that. If company A lays off 1000 people due to “legitimate” reasons (e.g. twitter generally doing poorly), that’s 1000 people looking for new jobs. Company B, C, and D can then take that as an opportunity to lay off 1000 people each that aren’t immediately vital to the success of the company. Company A might not have the funds or desire to rehire right away, but the other three will slowly start building back up. You end up with 4000 people competing for 100 open positions. Many may not be willing to accept a pay cut, but some percentage will, and gradually the rest will be slowly starved down to accepting less pay.
Software engineering is notoriously a high paid career path, and executives at these companies hate that, so any opportunity they get to suppress wages, they’ll jump on. Especially if you know every other big company is doing it to, so they won’t be able to turn that into an advantage against you
Employees aren’t afraid anymore so companies are trying to reinstate fear.
Yes, it is a concerted effort to create a glut. This is like the wga strike, they want to starve you a little so you’ll come back begging for a job before you lose your home.
They know the next 20 year will be a shortage of labour and stagflation. They’re just trying to start this lean period with the upper hand.
