Lemmy: China is spreading propaganda about their failing economy booming in their news!
Lemmy: The American economy is booming! I read it in our news!
Well both those types of articles are getting upvoted to the front page so I’m assuming there is overlap?
There are genuine grievances in the economy; most notably perhaps the affordable housing crisis. My home’s value is so fucking inflated it’s not even funny. It’s not worth what it is appraised for; none of these houses are. Chronic homelessness is at an all-time high.
That being said — since we are going into election year — we need to frame this not as what we see but what Republicans would normally boast of if Donnie2Scoops was in office.
- They’d be boasting about unemployment
- They’d be boasting about low inflation
- They’d be boasting about lowering gas prices
- They’d be boasting about stock-market being at an all-time high
- They’d be boasting about the GDP growth-rate.
So context matters. By the standards of what Republicans usually tout, the economy is thriving. Which means they’ve got nothing going into an election year… Which means they’re fucked.
Consider that Democrats won a midterm election during worse economic conditions in what is historically a rough midterm for an incumbent President’s party. Now consider the same with the risk of Democracy on the line, abortion rights, and a strong economy.
Republicans are fucked. (But still, get 5 people you know to register and vote). Hence why they’re so desperately clinging to this BoRDEr cRiSis as their only issue that’s sticking — and Biden just called their bluff on it.
Well yeah all those stats look great but the problem is that inflated housing just undoes them.
China is coincidentally also facing their economic issues from their massively inflated housing market with Evergrande (again?) collapsing
For sure, completely agree it needs addressed. But like most things, the origin of this housing crisis largely falls on Republicans. Here’s what I’d do if I were Democratic strategists going into this year. Pivots. Lots of pivots.
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If Republicans push back on Gun Control talk, you go, "okay, if you don’t want to solve that and deflect, then let’s solve root problems like societal stress, education, single-payer healthcare, and guaranteed access to a therapist at any age
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If republicans push back on the boRDeR cRiSis, (a) point out the net-positive economic impact these hard workers fleeing crime & poverty have while (b) pivoting to the domestic terrorist threat from right-wing extremists home-grown here in the US that are the #1 threat per the DOJ.
Combined with the border crisis and affordable housing, Democrats need to go, "Why focus on the small fish at the border and not the foreign investors from China, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia who’ve bought up large swaths of land, stifling the American dream? Hell even the King of Jordan owns 2 Beach-front Malibu properties. Look at all the real estate investors and AirBNB jacking up the prices.
People of a certain level and type of education think data and policies mean more than sentiment and messaging. But for many,t he data is secondary. You can see my comment on gas prices and unemployment being rooted in data and vibes. But the vibes for most people are what matters. And the vibes on election day are what matter most to undecided voters. I don’t think either party really gets the sense of dread that most people have and may never get it.
Which midterm are you talking about? I’m assuming you’re talking about the 2018 mid-term when Democrats picked up 41 seats since they lost the House in 2022. But another way of looking at the last five midterms, you see the midterms going to the party that is not the president’s. So I don’t think that the 2018 midterms provide a great reference point for the presidential election. Additionally, those gains in the 2018 election have slowly eroded giving control in the house to the Republicans.
But I wanted to address your strategy first and foremost since you address messaging. The projected map has Biden at 226, Trump at 235, and 77 to close to call. Those 77 electoral votes are spread across six states:
- Nevada (6 electoral votes)
- Arizona (11)
- Wisconsin (10)
- Michigan (15)
- Pennsylvania (19)
- Georgia (16)
In 2020, all six went Biden by less than 5%. In the 2022 midterm, Republicans gained seats in the house from Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia. If those three switch to Trump, Trump wins with 272. Having a record showing in California or New York does little to help with these strategic areas.
I’m not too certain what matters to the voters in these six states, but in Arizona, the BoRDEr cRiSis, as you condescendingly noted, probably matters to them. In all six of those states, you’ll need a get out a vote drive to convince people to vibe with Biden. Usually those people are young and have a little more free time. But not when they see a genocide unfolding in Palestine and the Biden administration being complicit. Are the Arab Americans of Deerborn, MI going to come out and vote for Biden and Tlaib again? Will Tlaib stump for Biden? Are young Blacks in Atlanta or Philly going to come out in droves for Biden? I don’t know.
I don’t know what ground work the DNC has been doing, but I hope they’ve built a trusted network to get people to the polls. Either way, I don’t think the “Republicans are fucked”. It think we are looking at a close election again.
I’d wager we can simply call vibes the right-wing grip on shallow political talking-points at the national level, for which they’re pretty effective at admittedly. Such is the nature that lies and bullshit are easier to spread than the complexity of truth & reality. So in that respect, sure, there are many people who don’t have the vibe or feel the sentiment that things are going well — not because the data is wrong, but simply because they live in an alternate reality; an echo-chamber. A place where that data just doesn’t exist.
There is, frankly, little I can think of that we can do to reach these people. On the other hand, I think Donald has already cast a wide net and those who were trump supporters remain trump supporters (minus the dead ones from old boomers dying, covid, etc.). Yeah he’s making sligh tinroads with the likes of certain Hispanic populations — mostly in Florida and Texas, but Nevada is up in the air. The question is whether these inroads outpace the influx of Gen Z and Millennials who overall lean Dem.
Actually I am referring to 2022 midterms, because as you said – the midterms tend to go to the party not the President’s; and if we compare either 2010 or 2014 to 2022, then Democrats vastly overperformed in 2022, turning what was coined the “red wave,” to at best a red tinkle, or even a blue tinkle depending on what you prioritize. Because of the reversal of Roe, youth showed up and offset what could’ve otherwise been a disastrous midterm during a rough economy. We won key Secretary of State positions, Governorships, and expanded a lead in the Senate. Yes, lost the House, true. Though not by much.
If Democratic turnout meets 2020 or 2022 levels, which it should, then I think Biden is in a stronger position now than he was in 2020 due to:
- Having (and thus no longer going against) incumbent advantage.
- A more united Democratic party (than the brutal 2020 Dem primaries)
- Reversal of Roe being a massive boost in turnout
- Being honest here: There’s good reason Republicans fear a Taylor Swift endorsement and voter registration drive.
- Both covid recovery and the economy are objectively better now than 2022 and overall improved across the course of Biden’s Presidency
- 91 criminal charges across 4 Grand Jury indictments will do nothing for Trumpers, but it will be a consideration for independents/moderates/swing-voters, and the polling generally agrees: More than half of Independents polled believe Trump is guilty, and 27% don’t know. Hell, even 14% of Republicans think he’s guilty..
In the absence of major economic issues, I predict the priorities of preserving Democracy, Justice, and Women’s Rights will rise to forefront – especially after campaign spending really kicks off.
It’s really not that big of an issue. It’s no different than the “mIGRanT CaRaVaN” that Donnie tried to fearmonger with as he pulled National Guard from their Thanksgiving dinners to try to drum up hysteria… Which turned out to be nothing. Hell even of the recent MAGA convoy themselves arrived and are confused..
So, what exactly is going in favor for Republicans compared to past election cycles…? The age issue remains a constant with both Presidents. I “condescendingly” wrote it that way because it’s patently a manufactured crisis. There are myriad issues that far exceed in this in impact to Americans overall. Yet I admit that the “vibe” right-wing media projects has this “BoRDeR CriSis” sticking even with some Independents and Democrats. Hence why Biden in a stroke of genius called the bluff of Republicans by giving them everything they wanted, and now they stumble to save face and figure out a way to not pass the legislation because Donald Trump told them not to because it’s literally his only attack going into 2024. Thus, Biden just neutered it.
But not when they see a genocide unfolding in Palestine and the Biden administration being complicit. Are the Arab Americans of Deerborn, MI going to come out and vote for Biden and Tlaib again? Will Tlaib stump for Biden? Are young Blacks in Atlanta or Philly going to come out in droves for Biden? I don’t know.
These are pretty small groups; the BoTh SiDeS false equivalence fallacy is losing its muster as more and more people are made aware of classic wedge-driving techniques during these election cycles. At the end of the day, Biden has already significantly shifted his tone with Israel, and will these people be foolish enough to think Trump won’t be an order-of-magnitude worse in his revocation of rights and complicity in genocides? (Recall, Trump said he’d block all Palestinian refugees… That really sat well with Muslims last time he tried that, didn’t it?). What about Ukraine? We know Trump sucks up to Putin… Will people opt to not vote or vote for Trump, knowing he’ll leave Ukraine hanging? I don’t think so.
I’m not going to say this is a slam-dunk, but I absolutely am more confident now than I was in 2020, or 2022.
This is the thing. We have objective measures of the economy and by those measures (the same ones we’d use to say a Republican is doing a great job) the economy is doing well.
The broader left becomes something of a useful tool for Republicans to use in election years during these discussions, because while Republicans agree with leftist feelings about the economy until elected. Afterwards, those same metrics they insist are incomplete or don’t count are exactly the things they’ll tout again to say they’re doing a great job.
Leftists need to get an objective set of metrics together and then consistently grade all policymakers on them. I also think that it’s not solely (or even mostly) up to the president to determine economic policy. Presidents have an effect, for sure, but it’s largely stuff passed through the Congress that impacts the economy.
Well said. In essence, perfections becomes the enemy of good. Because leftists frankly tend to be more informed on the nuances of the economy — and especially what impacts the poor and middle-class — they have more specific demands. Which is fine, but we must always remember that Republicans will never care about those things; whereas we’re seeing legitimate progress and a reshaping of the Democratic platform in just the last 10 years.
There’s quite a few places where right and left agree on some point, but not what to do about it. It’s not Horseshoe Theory, because they only meet in a single place and then run in different directions. They don’t come up with the same solutions at all.
Republicans say the economy is failing, Democrats do not, but the left also thinks the economy is failing. But the left think it’s failing because it does not provide a base of support for everyone and would like to fix it. Republicans don’t give a shit about that and would prefer to keep pulling the ladder up behind them.
The economy is only booming for the rich, anyone trying to tell us otherwise doesn’t care about our well-being. If it were doing well they wouldn’t have to keep telling us, we could see it in our everyday lives.
Gas prices are down. General cost of living is stabilized. Unemployment is extremely low and the percentage of eligible workers on the sidelines is dropping. Wages are up for the lowest income levels and continue to climb despite slowing inflation. Black households, in particular, have seen a significant narrowing of the income gap, more so than they’ve seen in many many years. The percentage of women in the workforce is up and salaries are climbing for them as well. In fact, the post-COVID recovery has been wildly successful when you compare it to post-2008 with respect to the improvements for the poorest among us, which is precisely the opposite of what you’re claiming.
Yours is purely an appeal to anecdote. The data is clear. Unfortunately, as study after study has shown, data can’t compete with vibes, and we just spent the last two years with the MSM (not to mention social media…) telling everyone a recession was around the corner.
I stopped reading at gas prices are down. They are up .40 the last week.
The data is clear
The gaslighting is all thats clear. All the data conflicts with your claim. Homelessness up to the highest level ever recorded, housing is unaffordable, food is unaffordable, wages are stagnant, income inequality is the widest ever recorded.
I stopped reading at gas prices are down. They are up .40 the last week.
This is just as stupid as saying because it snowed, global warning isn’t real.
Looking pretty low to me. Speaking in terms of this week makes no sense to me.
The economy is booming, but not in all sectors. Housing is the biggest notable exception. Inflation was bad, but it’s gotten better. Pretty much everything else is doing great. Even car prices are coming down.
Cheapest 1 bedroom rent can find is 2.3k/month.
Where though? If you’re in a historically HCOL area, then that’s hardly surprising.
I’m in an easily commutable suburb of one of the largest metro areas in the country and there are 1br apartments available in decent areas for $1000-1200ish. Not what I’d call “cheap” but a far cry from what you’re claiming.
Housing costs are sky-high. Rent is ridiculous. Good luck ever trying to own a house. And yeah, cost of living went way way up and now it’s “stabilized” there.
And to say wages are up is just laughable. I mean, yeah people are now being paid $15 an hour instead of $10, but what does that matter when food and housing costs increased more than that?
The data is skewed by the people that benefited from raising the price of everything during COVID-19 and then never brought the prices down.
The rich are richer and they are the measuring stick for the economy because they own all the news sources. It is dramatically worse for the poor now than it was 5 years ago.
Don’t let bullshit propaganda fool you.
I feel like this CONSTANTLY happens and people just eat it. Prices skyrocket. Then they stop rising or maybe even dip a little but still remain way higher than they originally were and… Problem solved! It’s stabilized! In fact prices are DROPPING! huzzah!
Makes me wonder if people are really this easily fooled or are they all just being ignored? Lol
If his is purely anctedote, then yours is decontextualized.
Gas prices are down.
Sure. Since a high in June of 2022. The last time gas prices were at this level was June 2021. And the time before that was October 2014. Which is to say, for about 6 years, gas prices were lower than today. And just looking at the graph, they were significantly below today’s level. Just to note, they have yet to return to the levels before the precipitous rise stating in December 2020.
There maybe, as you noted, vibes, but they ain’t wrong.
Unemployment should be looked at with, of course participation rate which has held even for the last year, and how long people have been unemployed which has been growing slightly for those unemployed for 27 weeks or more. This also doesn’t address underemployment which disporporstely effects the young and poor. Underemployment colors one’s outlook for stability in the present and future.
Thankfully, Biden and others in the administration have managed this far better than 2008 for the average citizen. Not having a recession is a good thing. I’ve lived through several. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t looming concerns. Inflation is still higher than the target and instigating further disinflation is uncharted territory.
Data, in of itself, is not enough. It needs to be contextualized to develop political and social narratives. Addressing people with condescension and dismissing their anxieties as mere vibes fails politically.
I think people are expecting all the prices to return to “normal” when that’s probably never going to happen, as a good chunk of the price increases are due to post-covid inflation
Booming for who exactly?
Me?
Gas prices are below $3 here, only spent $91 on weekly groceries yesterday, and my high interest savings accounts are sitting around 4.75%
My property taxes went up 20% but that’s a local thing…
And I’ll toss this in here even though you’ll cry that it’s not a valid metric, but my retirement accounts are at a record high
Like, what more do you want??
$91 for a week of groceries? You either live alone or your poor family is subsisting on Top Ramen.
That retirement account is going to mean fuckall when you retire as inflation eats up most of it.
House prices to contract down to a realistic level. Rent controls such that the price of rent is not higher than the price of a mortgage (which gives you ownership of a valuable asset, a tenancy does not).
But rent has to cover all the costs of ownership and then some, meanwhile the mortgage payment is but a fraction of that.
I don’t know why this guy’s getting downvoted. Rent prices are at record high. APRs are through the roof. Groceries are getting more expensive every year. I’m even paying $20 more every month for car insurance. Sure Trump was worse but let’s not act like everything is all sunshine and rainbows just because it’s an election year.
Google seems t suck these days and I wasn’t able to find good data, but
- I see historical graph of car interest rates peaking over 8% in November, but current advertised rates 4-7%
- I see mortgage rates peaked in Sept and headed down. Most predictions I see are down or at least consistent - I didn’t see any predicting up
- gas prices are much cheaper lately
- my savings account t just went up again, I think it’s now paying 4.5%
Gotta admit it’s tough to sympathize with a $20 insurance increase when I just got hit with the double whammy of teenaged driver and new car. My car insurance is quintuple what it was a couple months ago😒
A shocking amount of people I know, including myself were all laid off. Ive been unemployed for 6 months. There are zero jobs in my Ruby red shithole state aside from retail.
This growth is not distributed equally.
Great for who? Not me. Not anyone I know. Two of my close friends lost their jobs in the last few months. And tech layoffs out of control due to interest rates. Fuck off with this propaganda
Not at all.
But I see the .ml and know that you’re almost certainly a Xi puppet.
There’s still a full on America+China+EU sized market crash boiling under that “booming” surface. I don’t know quite how they staved it off with just Credit Suisse and two other banks imploding so far. But it’s not done, it’s not finished, it hasn’t even started.
No idea what backroom deals were done in the financial sector to stop it all for now, but it’s still coming. Otherwise corporations wouldn’t still be bleeding the plebs dry with cost of living and trying to offset their shitty investments on the CBMS as well as fighting tooth and nail to keep students indebted forever, so the party can keep on rolling.
It’s an utter clusterfuck. We’ll see what happens in the next few years.
I gotta admit dude, this just smells like made up conspiracies. That Credit Suisse and 2 regional US bank shock happened almost a year ago. If those were emblematic of systemic issues, the failures would have continued, but they were instead just the result of bad governance and decision-making at each individual institution. The world economy absorbed those failures and moved on a long time ago.
And do you really think businesses need this excuse to raise prices? What about good old fashioned greed? Regarding prices either way, they’ve gone down in almost every sector of the economy besides groceries. High grocery prices definitely hurt the most, though, and I hope Biden can help influence grocers to charge less
I don’t think they need excuses, no. But there is a limit to how much you can realistically get out of a stone.
The world economy has absorbed fuck all, because a lot of, if not all, bad debt is still floating around the markets, hidden in swaps overnight repo, and similar mechanics. I don’t care if you believe me, it’s crazy talk for sure. It doesn’t even matter a single bit if I am right, because there’s fuck all to do about it for most day to day people. I’m also not being alarmist in: OH BUY GOLD NOW, PREP YOUR BUNKERS!!!
I would much rather be wrong here. Would be fan-fucking-tastic, and if I am, good. That’d be literally the best for everyone.
All I’m saying is, the underlying issues that keep leading to these market upsets aren’t resolved and CS, et al are just minor break outs of a major issue that keeps bubbling and boiling. Fucked if I knew when it’ll blow, but the next time it does, will be bigger than anything we’ve seen. Just these three banks failing in 2022 was already much larger in value than the entirety of 2008-2009 collapses.
Again, it doesn’t matter what I think or say. I don’t know if I’m right either, how could I? No one does. I just believe that it’s much more likely that the same fucks that caused 2008, who never saw any consequences whatsoever and are still running the show, never changed their greedy underhanded and horrible ways and 2008 was never resolved either, than all of them having a change of heart and never doing anything shifty or illegal ever again, cross their hearts and hope to die.
Credit Suisse and two other banks imploding so far
Don’t forget Evergrande
Here’s a Plain Bagel video on why the Evergrande liquidation isn’t as big a deal as lots of other people are hyping, at least to the world economy
No offense, but I’m so burnt out of this finance crap, everyone is lying, the whole thing is a pointless big casino. Reading anything about finance anywhere is as reliable as reading TASS (or Ukrainian) reports from the war in Ukraine.
Nothing ever is a big deal, then everything comes down and a bunch of flapjacks who caused it are laughing and drinking champagne above the sea of desperate people protesting the whole charade.
No mention of swaps, no mention of debt lending and loaning. Evergrand’s impact doesn’t just come from the shit it does in China with the real estate. As a publicly traded company, there are many financial instruments tied to that single stock that have nothing at all to do with the real estate side of things.
