That is embarrassingly low.
They’re bad, but Texans don’t vote. The laws don’t nearly begin to explain the turnout numbers.
It’s terrifying if you consider the norm. Trump has something like 70+ felony counts, arguably the worst orator in history, and a verified rapist.
He’s still getting around 35-40% support consistently.
It’s fucking terrifying how good the Fox propaganda machine is.
Personally, I find it far more terrifying how utterly stupid and gullible the average person is.
and half of all people are even dumber.
Some people process loss or being lied to in different ways. And some people take time to process that loss more than others.
Denial: The election was stolen!
Anger: We have to storm the capital!
Bargaining: We were just trying to protect our democracy.
Depression: Biden is just as bad. <----- Most people are here.
Acceptance: Trump committed election fraud and is going to prison for it
Though I think many MAGA folk will be stuck on depression for quite some time.
I agree with you. Virtually everything l, even random totally trivial matters of taste/opinion come out 50/50 these days. The country is deeply polarized. For anything to come out with a 2:1 margin is a landslide. Trump is a huge loser. I just hope he stays in the race long enough to sink the Republicants.
The guy attempted a coup. He should be on trial for his life right now… and still 30+% of Americans might support him.
it’s 30% if you only read the title, at the end of the article it says:
Two other polls released this week show President Joe Biden and Trump competitive in a 2024 matchup, with Biden edging Trump by just a point in surveys from Marist and Quinnipiac.
unless you check how they conducted the poll, you don’t know if either one is correct.
was it made in an university campus or at the exit of an NRA convention? those will give you wildly different results.
The two claims are not in conflict. Election polls account for propensity to vote.
The 36% will turn out to vote. It will be an uphill struggle for the Dems to get turnout high enough to defeat them.
But the non-fash media will smugly proclaim him defeated anyway, helping to depress turnout enough that he wins. Again.
Dangerous times.
For anyone wondering here are the two polls:
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/trumps-indictments-2024/
Data for it: https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202308151349.pdf
“This survey of 1,220 adults was conducted August 11th through August 14th, 2023 by the Marist Poll. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the United States were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online”
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us08162023_usos65.pdf
“Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.”
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-took-a-long-time-for-republicans-to-abandon-nixon/
When the House of Representatives voted in February 1974 to give the House Judiciary Committee subpoena power to investigate Nixon, it did not have the weight of public opinion behind it. According to a poll conducted by Gallup just days before the vote, only 38 percent of Americans were in favor of impeachment. And although a solid majority of Americans did eventually come to support impeachment, that moment didn’t arrive until quite late in the game.
My friends, the MAGA cult stuck with Trump through racism, rape, hush money, and an attempted coup! They are not budging.
Also every year, 2½ million older Americans die. So in the same eight years, that’s as many as 20 million fewer older voters. Which means that between Trump’s election in 2016 and the 2024 election, the number of Gen Z (born in the late 1990s and early 2010s) voters will have advanced by a net 52 million against older people. That’s about 20 percent of the total 2020 eligible electorate of 258 million Americans.
And unlike previous generations, Gen Z votes… young people in recent years to vote more frequently for Democrats and progressive policies than prior generations did when of similar age
Not saying that 2024 is in the bag for Biden, but a lot has changing in the electorate. And I’ll take a little hope when I can get it.
How many of those trump cultists admit today to voting and supporting G.W. Bush? You know they didn’t vote for Gore, if they voted at all, but they supported Bush and they supported his vision to make the US the world’s police despite claiming they are against this.
Do you think the people who supported Nixon were somehow dumber than Americans are today? Functional literacy was much lower in the 70s.
There are large swathes of people who just support the status quo. Nixon being the villain in his own story is “common knowledge” now and Trump’s just stupid Nixon.
I guess that’s a good thing, but that % should be way higher for someone that committed treason, among numerous other crimes (as well as being just a terrible person in general.)
Something like 1/3 of the country is so deeply republican as to be a total loss. This % is pretty fucking solid.
Yeah, screw that. Don’t trust polls, vote like your democracy and your life depend on it.
36% is enough to elect, if they all vote.
Have you ever participated in one of these polls? I haven’t. None of my friends have. Who are they polling?
Lots of people. I have. The linked AP article says they polled 1165 people, which seems small compared to the 332 million, but the math checks out for a 95% confidence level and a 3% margin of error.
I’m not American, but my wife used to be in these pills here. I think it started with like music polls, have you hear this song in the last week in the radio etc. Later on it was TV, product placement in supermarkets, news events, local, state and federal elections.
Half the time she admitted she had nfi what they were talking about so just made shit up so the call ended quickly and she got whatever payment/reward they were giving out.
There have definitely been periods when polls were quite skewed because they were conducted by phone and they over-represented people with landlines. I guess because it’s harder to get a “phone book” of cell numbers. This skewed actual outcomes of the polls.
I think they still have similar issues. They probably underrepresent people who change phones often or just don’t use the telephone to communicate. Sometimes they’re conducted online and recruited over email. There are all different ways that that can skew more to one type of person.
And when they say they have such and such a confidence interval, that does not mean they are that confident they’ve controlled for all the biases. It’s just simple statistics math about sample sizes.
I think we have seen very clearly in recent presidential elections how unreliable polls are. Not only do people answer them differently than they fill out ballots, there just isn’t a perfect way to be sure you’re polling people who will actually vote.
