Google layoffs: The company plans to set up a new team in Munich, Germany which would act as “cheaper” labour, the report claimed.
Google’s death spiral will take a while but it’s clearly circle the drain.
It will likely never completely die the same way IBM never died but it will stop being the desired placed for new graduates.
The fundamental problem with these businesses is that they are Too Big To Fail. Which is to say, they’ll have a low-interest line of credit and enormous historic revenue streams that carry them decades past what should be an expiration date.
If a better Search Engine pops up, Google can either buy them out or vexatiously litigate them into the ground. If they start losing ground to Microsoft or Facebook, their treasury can simply hedge the losses by purchasing their rivals’ stock. If they face an outside challenger - a ByteDance or a Pinstorm - they can lobby the Feds to lock out the competition or buffer their weak sales by winning more federal contracts from the PRISM program.
And, in the end, they’ll always have their IP. Decades of accumulated “we developed a special coding technique for pressing a button, so now you owe us money any time you press a button” basic legacy infrastructure that everyone else will be forced to license by a captured judiciary/regulatory body.
Like GE and Walt Disney and Authentic Brands Group, they don’t actually have to make anything in the end. They can reap tens of billions of dollars by collecting rents on the company legacy.
Just zombie firms feasting on the brains of smaller businesses and retail customers forever and ever and ever.
Which is annoying as people will say yeah but capitalism will bring competition. If Google isn’t doing well someone else will step up.
But no. They don’t. Google will be to big to fail and we will support them like you said.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_Agents_Registration_Act
Foreign governments and businesses have always been allowed to lobby US officials, under the condition that they register as agents of another government.
Banning TikTok doesn’t prevent business agents from Singapore or China from lobbying in the US. It doesn’t even prevent ByteDance specifically from lobbying in the US.
Source: I’ve done student outreach for Amazon (sitting at a booth, chatting to students, doing student program interviews).
That ship has sailed. While big tech still means big salaries, many graduates are now smart enough to realise that the magic number a company says they’ll pay you every year is meaningless if they’ll lay you off three months from now to appease some shareholders.
They see OpenAI, and they see a startup that basically mopped the floor with ALL of big tech in something they supposedly did for the better part of a decade. I genuinely think we’re a few small success stories away from FAANG being completely relegated to boomer tech like IBM.
Google is done, IMO. The same goes for Meta, the two big tech companies that showed people how “fun” an office could be. They’re now relegated to normal companies…and their output over the last few years show a set of companies with few stand-out winners. Do you really want to slog through a tough CS degree and a 4-5 stage interview process requiring months of prep to work on Google Docs, or work hard for years only to be woken up every night for a whole week because Amazon Fashion is suffering downtime, all while VP’s move to different departments in a blindingly obvious move to avoid department shutdowns and being associated with mass job losses?
IMO, if Google stick with Sundar, and Amazon stick with Jassy, they are done. They’ll lose their status and go into slow decline over the next decade.
Are you disputing that their AI offering is better than what Google have produced in the same space?
the two big tech companies that showed people how “fun” an office could be. They’re now relegated to normal companies…and their output over the last few years show a set of companies with few stand-out winners
- Stop making work engaging
- The geniuses act less engaged and leave or get salty (the Dead Sea Effect)
- “Why would millennials do this to us?”
Seems Google forgot what made it great.
But it’s correctable:
- let the smart people be smart
- hire and organize worker bees around the hard work of maintenance and code evolution that isn’t SRE
- don’t give up on slow starts (ohai Wave)
- run the old folks home for beloved projects that are just PR wins to keep people happy (ohai gReader, Picasa, and a cast of thousands)
Worker-bees don’t need to save the world every quarter. They also don’t earn the big bucks, but form the ecosystem to retain culture amid superstar churn.
Build a functional company again. And fire the people thinking quarter by quarter.
- Pichai ignores the fact that part of the reason the pay is so well at Big Tech is that they’re paying you to not have ethics. His failure to understand that is gonna seriously hurt Google.
- Looking for cheaper labor… in Germany? Where worker protections are WAY stronger than in the US? Lol. (That’s not a shot at Germany. That’s commentary on American labor protections, or lack thereof).
European salaries for software developers are half of what they are in the USA. It’s a problem on both sides of the Atlantic, honestly.
Source: software developer in Europe who usually works for American companies.
Google is too big to fail. Yes they’ll lose a lot of customers and products but they only need to keep the ads and maybe google cloud engine running. Everything else is irrelevant until Google.com becomes irrelevant.
Please treat this as an explanation, and not an apology for big tech. If you work in tech, or are thinking about it, understand the rules of the game :
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First, a new skill goes hot - maybe functionally superior, may just be a trend. In tech, it’s always the new shiny.
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Demand for skills outstrips supply
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Salaries go up !
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Big tech flex, offer big money to hoover up the talent. Sometimes it’s for projects, sometimes it’s just to keep them out of the hands of competition, in case the trend becomes a standard
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Time passes
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Chasing big salaries, lots of people acquire the skill.
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Supply outstrips demand, skill becomes a commodity.
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Salaries come down
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Big Tech is still paying huge salaries, for skills that may have stopped trending, but at the very least - are now available at market at a much lower rate. If you include globalisation, it could be 30% of what they are paying.
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The high salary hires get cut, because there’s a new skill trending, or, the same skill is now available at much lower rate .
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Everyone is shocked !
This has been tech workers life cycle for at least 30 years, and I don’t see it changing
You’re missing the whole “growth starts to plateau so management looks for ways to cut costs”
And
“Product comparatively stable so it gets hired out to contractors who inevitably fuck it up because they’re cheap and there was 0 knowledge transfer but it’s too late you laid off the entire original team”
Big Tech is still paying huge salaries, for skills that may have stopped trending
I gotta say, we live in some truly rarified space when fucking Python, possibly the best programming language developed in my lifetime, stops “trending”. I don’t even know what that’s supposed to mean from a business perspective. Its not like you just get to stop supporting a legacy language. Just ask someone who spent seven years, fresh out of college, supporting archaic old school ASP pages and Perl scripts.
But also you’re not just supporting the language. You’re supporting an entire suite of libraries, applications, and interfaces built for the particular environment.
Elon Musk learned this the hard way when he started trying to tear the wiring out of the walls and sell it for scrape at Twitter.
Also, the story of Boeing’s planes-that-don’t-fly-good. Decades of engineering out the door to save money in a single quarter means accumulating tail risk that you - a manager who will be up or out in another five years - never have to deal with.
This has been tech workers life cycle for at least 30 years, and I don’t see it changing
Longer than 30, to be sure. But its the sort of thing that comes at the expense of end users, rather than business execs. That’s the dirty secret behind these business decisions. Making the product worse only ever seems to benefit the firm’s bottom line when a business is in a secure cartel.
Python is great for what it is, but the best language developed in your lifetime? Its type system is janky and bolted on. A good type system is one of the main things I look for to call a programming language great.
That’s the dirty secret behind these business decisions. Making the product worse only ever seems to benefit the firm’s bottom line when a business is in a secure cartel.
This, as with enshittification in general, is a symptom of our fucked up culture that views money as a virtue. And with the business culture in particular, regardless of cartel or monopoly status, if the bottom line gets better the managers are doing a “good job” and almost nobody cares about inconveniences to customers or tarnishing of the brand.
Sundar Pichai-led company
Is that really a better description than just saying Google?
Folks need to start naming Prabhakar Raghavan, he’s the mother fucker that fucked up the search side to increase ad revenue, which is what Pacai hired him to do like a good little McKinsey alum
he’s also the guy who wrecked yahoo search. fuck Prabhakar Raghavan.
The board of directors probably plays bigger roles when it comes to layoffs than the C-Suites.
It’s not Google technically: it’s alphabet. Which is why they phrased it like that.
Microsoft and Google have indian CEOs so they can penetrate the billion people market (indians are deeply patriotic, and it plays into overall brand loyalty) and these companies plan lower costs while doing so.
What’s a few million dollar paid for a (specifically chosen for the purpose) CEO, when you can make billions by using it to gain grounds in a emerging market.
Win-Win
Cheaper labour in the most expensive town in a country that is well known for high labour costs?
Compared to Valley workers, Germans are still cheap. 100k is a very very good salary over here.
When you have a much better social safety net, work-life balance and in general can expect to be treated like a human and not a work-battery to be used up and discarded, people are satisfied with much less money.
Should they maybe instead just try that in the US? Nah, of course not.
Yeah, but you still have to pay social taxes on top for every worker. That’s why salary and labour cost are two different things. And boy is it a difference in Germany.
And as far as I’ve been led to believe, workers in the USA will be bullied into not taking any time off. Germans will take their entitled holidays and use sick leave when they are sick.
Compared to Valley workers, Germans are still cheap.
So is West Virginia or Oklahoma.
True, but you also need to get enough people with the right skills/knowledge who want to live in West Virginia or Oklahoma when those same skills and knowledge likely make them highly employable in markets with more amenities and greater job opportunities without needing to uproot their life and move to a new town/city when the time comes to get a job with a new company.
Even doubling the salary is far less than what you’d pay in the US, and as a rule of thumb, German labour, including all the indirect costs, is about twice the gross salary.
Could easily be that they have a bunch of people in Munich they can not fire since German labour laws are at least compared to a lot of places not that bad and they have to come up with some work for them. So having them work on this is still cheaper then having the people in the valley plus “useless” people in Munich.
You know where there is also cheaper labor? Other places in the US that are not in Bay Area CA.
https://www.levels.fyi/t/software-engineer/levels/senior/locations/san-francisco-bay-area
vs
https://www.levels.fyi/t/software-engineer/levels/senior/locations/munich-metro-region
Even if you assume that additional labour costs are a bit higher in Germany, there’s no way on earth that it could explain the difference of the Bay Area-median being over 3 times higher.
Sundar Pichai will go down as one of the worst tech CEOs. Dude appears as such a nice guy from podcasts I’ve listened with him but really awful at his job and has zero consistent personality. He’s a straight up corporate robot with no original opinions or idealogies. Unfortunately, none of that is visible or really matters because Google has infinite source of ad money so any KPIs are made irrelevant.
The KPIs are coming for their Ads Money too. I commented elsewhere about how Search is being bent to the will of Ads, and it’s Raghaven who’s being enabled by Sundar to do it. They’ve been hit with the problem that Ads isn’t growing as expected. Having worked with the new Google Ads dashboard, it’s no wonder why. It’s clunky, the mobile app is missing functionality, and the web app is broken on mobile. Throw on top the constant interruptions due to their AI flagging perfectly normal campaigns, and it’s enough to push people elsewhere. Sundar is the Ballmer of Google, and unless he’s deposed he will drive Google down the path the likes of IBM or Oracle.
