Really difficult to say, but the wheels really do seem to be coming off the wagon. The Ukraine war has been a disaster, China is prying the claws of imperialism off of the global south, Africa is unburdening itself of France as we speak… could be sooner than we think?
Anywhere between 5-30 years. Ukraine is losing the war, more countries are falling into the Russia-China/Brics camp, especially in the global south, and America is slowly decaying as a country. And once America is decayed enough it’ll be lost as the main rock of western imperialism, and the west will lose most of its bite.
I think American power has already decayed to the point where western imperialism cannot be sustained anymore. The only reason the imperial system continues anyway is sheer inertia. In all of the crises that we see today, the imperial system is rapidly undone while America and Europe are unable to respond adequately. The base has already shifted, now it is time for the superstructure to correct itself.
I disagree a little with the 5 years part as I can see a small chance of “a collapse” happening within that time, but as for the 30 years part it seems possible too.
As they have to steal ever more from their own populations and can steal less from the Global South they will become weaker and fractured, and if, for example, this happens in some parts before others it can lead to fascism in some countries in Europe which might see their neighbors in better shape as enemies, potentially leading to western infighting and an acceleration of their own collapse.
Hopefully such a scenario the conflicts stay internal instead of going global and they only weaken themselves while the rest of the world prosper. And in such a scenario we could even see Global Sout countries with enough power to massively influence western countries perhaps even leading to imperialism against them as the Global South is unlikely to go communist so fast.
Other scenarios might be more plausible though…
That Lenin quote,
There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.
applies here. It’s hard to gauge exactly when it will happen. But when it does, it will be rapid.
It depends a lot on the timing of certain things external to the US. For example, Ukraine and Palestine; China’s movements; the upcoming Indian election; future EU elections which could either move more reactionary or (optimistically) people start to grow tired of taking Ls for the US; climate change; anti-colonial momentum in the Sahel alliance of Africa; etc.
To be honest, the safest overall course of action may be for a gradual decline instead of a rapid one. If the US fell within one generation, people won’t accept the new reduced standard of living and are likely to still hold American supremacist / white supremacist ideas. That would increase the odds of a world war. Whereas, if the US just gradually gets shittier over a generation or two, then maybe people will understand it as an internal systemic breakdown instead of an external attack.
Whereas, if the US just gradually gets shittier over a generation or two, then maybe people will understand it as an internal systemic breakdown instead of an external attack.
You are being overly optimistic here
despite that though we are in uncharted territory as far as having a militant, global empire collapsing with a massive world-ending nuclear arsanel
so i hope to share your optimism. we don’t need a fully overtly world-conquering fascist, mask off, wild thrashing U.S. just decide to take the world with it after years of heavy tactical use of nuclear weapons to assert itself
socialism, communism, none of that would matter (except maybe ) we would just barbarism and the painful death of humanity
I had some thoughts on this but then I realized I’m not clear on what you mean by “fell within one generation.” You mean the US stays more or less the same as it is now in internal political landscape, but with the addition of losing global power? Or you mean the US as a state collapses?
I mean whatever is meant by collapse of the US. I would presume that includes economic decline, geopolitical weakening, reduction or disappearance of military presence in other countries.
If, according to Lenin, this collapse could happen in a relatively short time, then how would Americans react? That’s what I was pondering. Just some half baked ideas.
I think it will take time for Americans to accept a reduced prestige and standard of living. If it happened overnight, I’m speculating that Americans would not tolerate it and be more likely to lash out violently, compared to a protracted, almost imperceptible decline. But I can totally see how the opposite could be true, that if people can see the slide happening, that it would be more upsetting than if it happened all at once.
I think the next financial crisis is going to trigger total dedollarization. The US has already set themselves up with their trade war bullshit and sanctions regimes, but as soon as getting dollars becomes difficult the rest of the world is going to dump them immediately.
The US has definitely set itself up for that. For all the shortterm things it got that it wanted out of the Ukraine proxy war, i think that’s a major self inflicted consequence that they’ve followed up on with trade war bullshit like you said. Yeah the next 08 level crisis could very well lead to that
I kinda think it has the potential to be the long drawn-out death knell of humanity. That’s my most pessimistic take on it, but it’s not an unrealistic take for me. I could see western imperialism sooner ending the world than ceding its power.
But it also often feels like we’re sitting on a powder keg, and the contradictions are growing so severe that the average person is starting to realize there’s no clear paths to a happy and safe life under current economic systems. If we get hit with a bad enough financial crisis, or even some sort of natural disaster the governments of the world are incapable of handling, we might hope to see a resurgence in socialist thought in the west.
I think a lot of it has to do with how well China fares in the coming years. Their existence really does hurt the idea that the ‘american way’ is in any way a requirement for a fulfilling life, as most average westerners believe I assume.
