AGI, nanobots, fully autonomous self driving cars, cancer cures and aging cures, significant life extension, etc are all a long way off. Decades.
I’m not saying they’ll never happen, of course, just that we’re a long time away from them. I see way too many people thinking that these things are around the corner, and it makes me sad.
With regards to life extension especially (since i see a looooot of people think they personally will get to live forever), the odds of biotech and medicine advancing in our lifetimes to the extent that it facilitates biological immortality and indefinitely extended lifespans is slim to none at best. Go ask the actual experts if you don’t believe me.
The most we will see in our lifetimes is increased HEALTHspan, and tbh even that is iffy since we don’t even know if we will get even that.
In my opinion the first generations to experience significantly extended lifespans and age reversal probably haven’t been born yet. That’s how long i think it’s going to take.
I would tend to take the opposite point of view. Self-driving cars are here already - they are operating as taxis without human drivers in Chinese and American cities. AI is on an exponential growth path. I think its reasonable to think recursive self-improving AGI will be with us by the 2030s. Once that happens …. all bets are off for all the rest of the stuff you mentioned.
AI is on an exponential growth path.
Prove it. I would love to be wrong, but it doesn’t seem that way
It’s not exactly proof, but this graph seems to support that claim to an extent.
I don’t think a recursively self improving AI (a la a singularity) is something that will be made soon, if ever, especially as we push the limits of available computing power. There’s no such thing as infinite exponential growth in reality, as there’s always an eventual limit to growth.
I think AGI, in some form, could possibly happen relatively soon (like next three decades or so), but I’m not sure it will be of the recursively self improving variety. Especially not the sort that magically solves all of humanity’s problems.
AGI, nanobots, fully autonomous self driving cars, cancer cures and aging cures, significant life extension
I don’t know what AGI stands for but as for the others, I’m not sure you have a full grasp.
Self driving cars is a non issue. Cars aren’t sustainable, we don’t have space for them and let’s not even mention pollution (yes, even electric).
Cancer research is a sliding scale. The survival rate for cancer now is much bigger than it was e.g. 50 years ago.
It’s highly arguable whether a cure for aging is a good thing. The people most interested in this tend to be rich, selfish folks. Besides, that wouldn’t fix things like a fucked joint, which isn’t an issue exclusive to old age. This success would open up opportunity for much misery.
Nanobots are robots in the nano scale. We have been making ever smaller robots. I’d argue that this is also a sliding scale, with microbots having loads of applications and so on.
A cure to aging would be defined as an extension of healthspan, not lifespan. People living till their 80s on average but having fewer disablements and diseases of old age would be what success might look like.
I think it would be generally good for everyone, if it were to be broadly available. Removes a big strain on health care, enables people to be autonomous and independent into adulthood, and could even change this “demographic cliff” the rich fear with our decreasing birth rates.
Maybe that’s because we are heading more towards a dystopian future.
-We are heading towards a climate crisis where ecosystems will collapse, war will be fought for water sources, massive influx of refugees will head towards the north, food will be scarce, energy prices skyrocket and only the richest among us will be able to preserve their lifestyle.
-Liberty will be more restricted, technology allows surveillance on a massive scale and AI prediction of crime will make you think twice before jaywalking.
-Neo capitalism and profit extraction at all cost leads to people being sucked dry. Everything from housing, education, healthcare, energy become unaffordable for most yet profitable for the few. Who cares if no one lives in shiny condos as long as market prices keep rising. Who cares if most can’t afford an operation as long as the one who does spend million. Who cares if education is for the rich that will preserve the oligarchy.
-war is more dangerous than ever for civilians, robots and drones are controlled by AI. War crimes are not even noted, they would have died of hunger or thirst anyway.
-Authoritarism and small dominions rules over the world, any warlords can buy a swarm of deadly robots as long as you ship your primary resources.
Cancer cures are coming thick and fast.
The HPC vaccine for instance has meant that anyone under about 25 in my country has an insanely low chance of getting cervical cancer and reduced risk of some other cancers.
More generally, in the past 40 years cancer ten year survival rates have doubled.
I think people still make the mistake of thinking of cancer like it’s a single condition. There are loads of different types of cancers, so loads of different ‘cancer cures’ are needed.
AGI, nanobots, fully autonomous self driving cars, cancer cures and aging cures, significant life extension, etc are all a long way off.
Few of these have really been proven possible, much less an expected time-frame.
AGI: We are no nearer to artificial self-awareness with LLMs and other approaches than when AI research began in the 1950s.
nanobots: We have the ability to print parts at that scale but material properties are very, very different at that scale. Heat dissipation is a real problem.
Fully autonomous self driving cars: This is a subset of no self-awareness in AI.
Cancer cures: Here is where I disagree. The progress in combating the thousands of individual types of cancer in the past 50 years is astounding and the pace is increasing.
Also factor in that more people end up needed treatment for cancer because a: they live longer and b: the massive reductions in other causes of death means more people who would have died in past generations from other things live long enough for cancer to develop.
aging cures: Quality of life as we age has improved greatly but
significant life extension: yes, it seems 120ish is hard coded as the terminal age and we still don’t know if we can alter that.
SF is great in that it can show possible futures but it is not prediction.
