Absolute strategic genius from Russia here. They achieved some pretty impressive goals
- massive losses (as usual)
- minor tactical gains which are currently being wiped out.
And the big one
- changing US policy to now allow Ukraine to strike Russian territory.
I’m truly in awe.
You see by making the US allow Ukraine to strike more targets they will use more munitions. It’s a war of attrition, there are clearly more potential targets than weapons that the west can build./s
The scary thing is, I could imagine someone writing this text, but unironic…
The only real question left in this war is: if Putin orders a nuclear strike, will he be obeyed?
He won’t and probably not. The only way he will order a nuclear strike is if Russia is about to be dissolved or if he is about to be overthrown. Unless Russians financial situation gets a LOT worse, there is no risk of Russia dissolving, as Ukraine is not seeking to invade. Putin will not be overthrown unless he dramatically steps up conscription and starts targeting oligarchs families as conscription possibilities. He knows that to do so would be suicide.
In either scenario, once it has reached that point Putin will have pissed off literally every single person that matters and they would have no reason to listen to him.
Regarding Ukraine not seeking to invade Russia. Almost NOBODY seeks to invade Russia, because Russia has nothing that anyone wants that can’t be obtained much more easily and cheaply by simply buying it. Furthermore, were one to invade Russia, you then become responsible for what happens in the epitome of shithole state.
One follow up question would be: are Russia’s nukes maintained well enough to be functional?
Unlikely. There’s kind of only two hard-and-fast rules for nuclear war:
- Never strike first.
- Never strike a non-nuclear enemy.
If Russia were to strike Ukraine with a nuclear bomb, first and foremost that puts every nation on a knife’s edge globally… someone else with an itchy trigger finger could launch against Russia in the confusing hours afterwards. Next up, the PRC and India would likely abandoned Russia as waves of condemnation would flood the global media. Finally, the whole goal of the war is to take Ukraine, not to make it uninhabitable… why nuke what you want to own?
Nukes don’t have to leave behind radiation and make an area uninhabitable anymore. Those were the “Dirty” fission bombs. Fusion bombs are considered more clean.
FYI the United States has always maintained a first-strike policy as official nuclear doctrine. There is no language restricting nuclear weapons to just nuclear retaliation.
https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Spotlight/2022/NDS/NUCLEAR STRATEGY AND POLICY - NPR Factsheet.pdf
There’s a lot of wealthy oligarchs living in luxury who wouldn’t want their lifestyles threatened/ended by nuclear war. Similarly, Putins chain of command can’t be poor and dumb. They also have comparable luxury and lifestyles, and are smart enough to understand that nuclear war most probably would end everything they have. Putin himself is an umpteen billionaire.
Just sayin’, these people that control the nukes have the most to lose if they use 'em.
Russia has a lot of people, Ukrain is getting drained, there is no denying that. Sure Russia has made errors, so has Ukraine. Who can afford errors and deaths more? The larger military force. Vietnam showed outwardly a different story. But they also had other advantages Ukraine does not. And not to forget, Ukraine has been and remains a deeply corruption and morally depraved relative of Russia. Run by criminals and human traffickers. In the years prior to the invasion, they were fighting pretty dirty too, shooting down Airlines then denying it. Their fighting corps being seasoned with NeoNazis, being pretty disgusting to certain groups living in Ukraine etc. But of course nobody wants to remember anything prior to the invasion. And no, this isn’t pro Russian, just more realistic.
@jeffw is it sure this news?
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375
It’s hard to support any wars these days. Your innitial reaction to seeing Ukraine win and hold their own is to cheer.
I don’t understand the Isreal/Gaza/Humas war. I don’t get whats happening there. I don’t know why people support one side or the other. So I stay out of it.
But with the Ukraine/russia war, I get it. I know what is happening, and who to support. OBVIOUSLY Ukraine.
But when you watch it play out over the past 2 years, you realize one thing. The United States doesn’t want Ukraine to win. The United States doesn’t want russia to win either, don’t get me wrong. It’s just that United States LOVES that war continueing.
The United States gets to clear out a bunch of backstock of old military equipment that nobody would ever use. Then they get to pay their own government sponsered weapons manufacturing companies to provide ammo.
If the war ends, their gravy train ends. They want to keep Ukraine in the lead, but rubber banded back from actually reaching the finish line. The United States isn’t getting involved directly, not because they fear atomic bombs, but because they fear giving up easy money.
So in that regard you become a bit jaded and think “Well shit…maybe the republicans got this one right for all the wrong reasons. Maybe we SHOULDN’T support the Ukraine war”.
But if you just straight up stop supporting Ukraine, they suffer casualties and increase the risk of LOSING the war. You can’t have that. So you have to support them…but it feels disheartening that it’s somehow what I’m calling “Bad Faith Support”. Where you’re doing the right thing, for completely wrong reasons and aiming for the wrong result.
My only question in all of this, is where the hell is the rest of europe??? You’re telling me Germany of all countries isn’t putting troops on land for the chance to fight russia??? Kind of seems like it should be their wet dream!
England! You LOVE conquering other people, taking their land, and colonizing it. Russia is a whole big bunch of land and people. It’s kind of been your whole personality for the last 1500 years.
France…alright, you’re France. Fair enough.
Finland!!! You just bust a nut killing russians. Come get some of your former land back!!!
Japan! You guys are still bickering over an island. Everybody knows it’s your island. Come get it at the peace treaty.
Hell, even Taiwan might want to come get some. Prepare your armies, train them in real world combat, because you guys know if russia wins, china is coming for you guys next. When that happens, you might look to Ukraine, who’s now a formidable military presence, and say “Heeeeeyyyyyyy guys…remember when we helped you out? Welllllllllllllll china is kind of being a dick right now, soooooooooo…help?” And Zelinsky (if he’s still president when this happens) will fully get onboard with returning that favor.
Australia…yeah, you guys aren’t really involved at all, but I’ve never met a shitty australian. Literally 100% have been awesome people. So I figure maybe you want to jump in just because it’d be a thing awesome people do.
Your understanding of geopolitics and proxy wars is horrific.
You support the country that is closest to a democracy but not enough to push it into all out war. It isn’t that complicated.
You’re telling me Germany of all countries isn’t putting troops on land for the chance to fight russia??? Kind of seems like it should be their wet dream!
Saying that Germany is in any way dreaming about putting troops anywhere is right-out delusional. That also applies to France who are more willing to engage, but still don’t get off on it.
Poland. The Poles are the ones who wouldn’t mind marching straight to Moscow and have their cities nuked in response. But that’s not because they’d be a particularly quarrelsome bunch, either, it’s because they consider Russia a proven and irredeemable existential threat and like pretty much all Slavs, have great enthusiasm for the “find out” part of “fuck around and find out”.
The TLDR would be: “America wants this war to continue forever and why is all of Europe not going to war with Russia? And also Japan and Taiwan?”
(No one tell them that Japan is only constitutionally allowed to fight defensively.)
(No one tell them that Japan is only constitutionally allowed to fight defensively.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Japanese_military_legislation
Finland!!! You just bust a nut killing russians. Come get some of your former land back!!!
Yeah no thanks.
You are describing World War 3.
If Taiwan joins with Ukraine, then China joins with Russia and invades an underdefended Taiwan. Taiwan allies then have to join to protect them, and it balloons from there.
While I do think WWIII IS inevitable, I did not describe WWIII. I described a Ukraine war that is already happening getting support from multiple countries. That war ending, and THEN, Taiwan asks for Ukraine help in a new singular war against china. If china decides to split it’s military and also go to war with Ukraine, thats still one singular war, now in a 2-1 situation. I personally don’t think china would DO that, but I’m also pretty sure people in the 1940s were shocked that the nazis broke their non-aggression pact with the soviet union. Not because hitlers word could be trusted, but because it’s just so bafflingly stupid.
Thats the same level of stupid I think china going to war with Ukraine, after Ukraine beats russia, while they’re already in a war with Taiwan (that has support from united states).
