Image is of a Hezbollah missile attack on a military camp west of Jenin.
The situation between Hezbollah and Israel is rapidly escalating, with massive bombing campaigns on southern Lebanon by Israel predominantly on civilians (as the tunnels in South Lebanon are mostly unreachable to the Zionists, just like in Gaza), while Hezbollah and its allies respond with missile attacks predominantly on Israeli military facilities. Israel is spreading an evacuation order to the residents of southern Lebanese villages while also bombing their routes of escape and civilian infrastructure, similar to a terror tactic used widely in Gaza.
Northern Israel is currently under military censorship to hide their losses, so we get very little information other than what the Resistance provides and what videos and images get through the censors.
I don’t know if Israel will dare a ground incursion soon, but it seems fairly likely in the coming days or weeks.
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The RSS feed is here.
Last week’s thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
and the rest of the entire Hezbollah leadership has been wiped out
Am I still just a ‘doomer’
You tell me.
You’re still doing it- why am I not allowed to point this out? It’s a problem and downplaying it isn’t a healthy mindset. If socialism is to be scientific it must be a truth-seeking enterprise and must continually improve its knowledge base. Socialists should learn from the failure of the axis of resistance to better future resistance efforts. Now is the time to analyze what went wrong and what could have been done better. I posit that Iran holding back was a huge mistake and it enabled Israel to do what it has done.
The point being made is that “the rest of the entire Hezbollah leadership” has not been wiped out, and Hezbollah’s structure has been developed to specifically mitigate a strategy of assassination. Every person who gets killed has a competent replacement before the day is out.
But to answer your question: I would not be surprised if Israel has gone harder than the Resistance expected. Perhaps they imagined that Israel’s reluctance to meaningfully attack Lebanon after so many months meant that they were too afraid to make big moves out of fear of reprisal. Therefore, the sudden severity of the attacks may have caught them off-guard. If that is the case, then over the coming days and weeks, we will hopefully see a course correction by Hezbollah and friends towards more daring moves - it is hard to boil a frog if it’s hopping around and splashing that boiling water over you as well.
I don’t think recent events have substantially shifted the conflict, we’re still mostly in the same lane towards the destruction of Israel albeit with some significant speedbumps.
They must have expected a reprisal. The resistance strategy of “boiling the frog” deliberately makes the status quo for Israel untenable. If Israel is forced to choose between conceding to the resistance, breathing through a pillow, or terrorism, it is going to choose terrorism every single time.
Everything about Israel’s behavior is predictable. They will take any opportunity to assassinate their enemies. They will kill as many civilians as possible in these assassinations. Nothing about their modus operandi has changed in decades. They have been projecting their intent to do this for months. People might not have been prepared for it to happen at this specific moment, but there is nothing unexpected about it.
Has “the entire Hezbollah leadership” been wiped out? News to me.
However if that haven’t happened I would call what you are doing “dooming”. And also a lie. And not very scientific.
