GlueBear [they/them, comrade/them]
Hi
You know I’ve been discussing this with my sibling: this event may seem like nothing considering this probably won’t lead to invasion. You know, just a terror attack which the entity regularly engages in.
But in the grand scheme of things this is going to snowball into collapse of the western tech market in Western Asia and probably the world.
China’s semiconductor game is on point. They’re only a few months away from western tech standards and they continue to move forward. I mean it tracks with their records on solar panels and EVs, sectors that the west used to dominate until China locked in.
Their biggest competitors were western tech; Apple and Google are massive competitors (and often they do out-compete Huawei in the global stage) among other western companies.
These waves of attacks (we’ll probably see more in the future, since I doubt it’s just pagers and radios) tells everyone that even western tech supply chains aren’t to be trusted before it was just the tech with regards to backdoors and surveillance.
But now your fucking device could turn into a bomb? Whose to say that your home appliance can’t be turned into a fucking bomb; what about your TV and laptop?
Countries have already gotten the memo, this is reminiscent of the US kicking Russia out of the SWIFT payment system. That was the nuclear option that the west thought would bring Russia down, instead it expedited dedollarization and BRICS enrollment. Saudi Arabia started offering oil in the yuan after what happened to Russia.
Countries, especially if they’re in the US’s cross hairs, are probably looking at incorporating more Chinese alternatives. I’m talking Chinese made from A to Z. Nothing with western involvement.
Chinese products are good, and they constantly improve and get cheaper. You don’t innovation in the west like you would get from China. All this attack did was expedite the global shift to Chinese tech.
Tldr: western tech will go the way of the American automotive industry.
Detroitification of silicon valley
They airstrike cities, and then what? They still need to cross into Lebanon at which point they’ll enter the Vietnam lite phase of the war.
Holding territory requires you physically maintain a presence with soldiers and outposts. Calling in airstrikes and drone strikes isn’t enough, they just waste money and resources on nothing.
Not only that, but Israel would be in the position of Russia in the early days of the Ukraine war. When they captured loads of territory but had to significantly cut back because Ukraine would dog-walk them to their graves if they actually tried to occupy Ukrainian land.
This was a smart move by Russia and was necessary to achieve their goals, which are to denazify/demilitarize Ukraine, keep it from joining NATO, and install a Russia friendly leader. That’s why occupation of Ukrainian land and wonton destruction of Ukrainian cities and infrastructure were avoided.
Unlike Russia however, Isntrael’s strategic goals ARE occupation. They don’t just want to bring the settlers back to the north, they want to occupy and set up a “safe zone” deep into Lebanese territory.
They must occupy and hold territory, because that’s the only way to achieve that goal.
Of all the things a country could do, no matter how large or powerful they are, occupying foreign land is fucking difficult and often results in a protracted war that ends with occupier leaving in body bags.
Russia understood this, that’s why they got out of most of Ukraine and switched to attrition warfare to wait out the inevitable Ukrainian front(s) collapsing.
It happened to America in Vietnam and Afghanistan, it happened to the Soviets in Afghanistan. It will happen with Lebanon and Isntrael as well.
those pizzas will surely free Palestine
My methods are beyond your understanding
I can’t disagree with anything you’ve said, but I still feel that China might choose the route that alienates the least G7/ EU member states.
Even if some users here feel it’s foolish for China to expect US “allies” to hold their own interests above Washington’s, China might not burn trade deals that could jeopardize relationships with Europe. China is still working on expanding trade with the EU at the same time it’s working with Russia and Iran.
China’s interests don’t 100% line up with its allies’ interests. The US on the other hand expects its enemies to be the enemies of their allies as well, but China knows that doesn’t need to be the case.
It could be that China tries to turn the trade war against the US by playing both sides, while the US will undoubtedly escalate. If it turns out to be the case, then this could further alienate Washington from their EU allies.
This paves the way for more Chinese trade and more expansion of the BRI into Europe, while simultaneously reducing Washington’s influence on trade in the region.
Tldr: China taking the nuclear stop trade with us option is a possibility, but they might just play the long game so they can end up on everybody’s (except US) good side 10-20 years down the line.
