What I don’t get: Doesn’t this turn the Wagner mercenaries into even more of loose cannons? What’s stopping them to just fracture into chaotic splinter groups now?
As soon as these mercenaries stop getting paid, they’ll wander off and find another paymaster.
his name is a really easy banner to fly now… he basically can’t do anything wrong anymore… he died a hero trying to save Russians from the corruption of Putin… the anger will just grow, especially once that army in Ukraine starts knocking on doors inside Russia…
everyone sees that Putin just did it because he was AFRAID of Prigozhin
Even though I think that’s how it may have played in the West, it seemed like Prigozhin stayed pretty loyal to Putin all throughout, he was really careful to not lay any blame on Putin, more that he was misled. If anything, I wonder if blame will be placed on Shoigu, the Defense minister, that’s who Prigozhin’s beef was with I thought. I’d assume there will be some mob-style reprisals against Shoigu and/or the military leadership rather than against Putin himself. That still may benefit Ukrainians regardless.
Putin won’t axe Shoigu he’s his perfectly loyal Tuvan pet… not necessarily loyal to Putin (he started under Yeltsin), but to the office of the president: Shoigu is guaranteed to not make a move for office because he has no chance in the first place because racism.
He’s pretty much the only person among the Siloviki who is guaranteed to not use their position as head of the army to putsch. Shoigu’s best play is to be loyal to whoever happens to be his boss, and that’s what he’s doing. He may be otherwise incompetent bu he understands politics.
(Side note: Tuva does have a kickass national anthem, with throat singing and everything)
i don’t disagree with one bit of your analysis, i’m just not sure Shoigu will be enough once Ukrainians start driving tanks down Russian highways… popcorn time in any case, like you say…
Nothing, and a few probably will. But a few small groups are much more easily handled. I wouldn’t be surprised if smashing the group was the main motivation behind the plane crash.
a few small groups are much more easily handled
What about just one guy with a grudge and a shoulder-fired missile launcher (anti-aircraft or anti-tank, depending on how you prefer to travel)? I’m sure Putin himself has countermeasures but he may still have problems unless his men can track down every Wagnerite who may have taken home a souvenir from Ukraine.
