his name is a really easy banner to fly now… he basically can’t do anything wrong anymore… he died a hero trying to save Russians from the corruption of Putin… the anger will just grow, especially once that army in Ukraine starts knocking on doors inside Russia…
everyone sees that Putin just did it because he was AFRAID of Prigozhin
Even though I think that’s how it may have played in the West, it seemed like Prigozhin stayed pretty loyal to Putin all throughout, he was really careful to not lay any blame on Putin, more that he was misled. If anything, I wonder if blame will be placed on Shoigu, the Defense minister, that’s who Prigozhin’s beef was with I thought. I’d assume there will be some mob-style reprisals against Shoigu and/or the military leadership rather than against Putin himself. That still may benefit Ukrainians regardless.
Putin won’t axe Shoigu he’s his perfectly loyal Tuvan pet… not necessarily loyal to Putin (he started under Yeltsin), but to the office of the president: Shoigu is guaranteed to not make a move for office because he has no chance in the first place because racism.
He’s pretty much the only person among the Siloviki who is guaranteed to not use their position as head of the army to putsch. Shoigu’s best play is to be loyal to whoever happens to be his boss, and that’s what he’s doing. He may be otherwise incompetent bu he understands politics.
(Side note: Tuva does have a kickass national anthem, with throat singing and everything)
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i don’t disagree with one bit of your analysis, i’m just not sure Shoigu will be enough once Ukrainians start driving tanks down Russian highways… popcorn time in any case, like you say…
once Ukrainians start driving tanks down Russian highways
I doubt the West will supply arms for a large-scale invasion of Russia. They’ve already made it clear that the stuff that they are supplying is to be used only in Ukraine, occupied Ukraine, and Crimea, and not anywhere in Russia proper. And Ukraine has been very careful to strike inside Russia only with weapons that do not come from Western governments, and to aim only at military and government targets inside Russia. I doubt a ‘real’ invasion will happen. Drone worries and border skirmishes, certainly; actual march-on-Moscow invasion, I doubt it.
