cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/22189256
The latest data, for the first quarter of 2025, shows that China’s CO2 emissions have now been stable or falling for more than a year, as shown in the figure below.
However, with emissions remaining just 1% below the recent peak, it remains possible that they could jump once again to a new record high.
Outside of the power sector, emissions increased 3.5%, with the largest rises in the use of coal in the metals and chemicals industries.
Sector-by-sector analysis suggests that, in addition to the power sector, emissions have likely also peaked in the building materials and steel sectors, as well as oil products consumption.
That’s what I keep telling delayers who always say that China pollutes so much it’s not worth doing any effort without them. The day that the Chinese government decides to go green it will be done in a matter of years, the day that the US decides to go green it will be done in a matter of decades.
I personally suspect the crash in solar panel prices is a result of them deciding to get on with fixing the problem. Basically turn it from a political problem to an economic one.
They are also pushing hard for both modern nuclear fission and nuclear fusion power. Once they start coming online in bulk, their CO2 output will likely plummet.
