given how they’re practically used it’s not particularly likely that cluster munitions are going to disproportionately harm Russians―essentially by design (and not dissimilar to the mining Russia is doing in parts of Ukraine), cluster munitions can’t and don’t work like that―so i think if you lean on that to justify this that’s a pretty weak justification.
i don’t think Ukraine should carte blanche do things i would consider bad and harmful just because they’re unambiguously the good guys. cluster munitions have clear drawbacks and are clearly harmful to people who aren’t Russians and aren’t combatants when used, and i don’t think countries should kill civilians and people who haven’t done anything wrong just because it maybe potentially will slightly expedite a war that’s now been going on for almost ten years. that’s a good way to end up concluding war crimes are justified because they’re happening to the “wrong” people.
I think there is a similar moral calculus here to that in WWII with decisions to bomb urban areas. Once you have been attacked and find yourself in an existential struggle, use of weapons becomes a question of the scope of innocent life lost versus the likelihood that lives will be saved.
In this case I think it is understandable that people are uneasy about the use of cluster munitions. The risks are well known but the benefits here seem … less so. That take may be wrong, but the point is that people have a right to feel queasy about the situation.
How about you let Ukrainians the Ukrainian bourgeoisie decide how best to defend their homes property and class interests?
It’s going to be military targets which will be fucked up.
unless you have data i don’t, the article seems to pretty definitively refute this point. overwhelmingly the people impacted by cluster munition use are civilians (97% of casualties were civilians in 2021) both in and outside of Ukraine, and their usage has a very long tail of fatalities.[1] there is no reason to think that even if they’re tailored specifically to nebulous military use against Russian soldiers that won’t also be the outcome here, because it is literally everywhere else they get used.
From your linked pdf:
Ukraine is the only country in the world where cluster munitions are being used as of August 2022.
• Russia has used cluster munitions extensively since invading Ukraine on 24 February 2022.
• Ukrainian forces appear to have used them at least three times during the conflict.
• There were no reports of new cluster munition use in any other country during the reporting period (from August 2021 to July 2022).
149 cluster munitions casualties recorded in 2021; a 59% decrease from 2020 total (360).
• Civilians accounted for 97% of all casualties.
• Children accounted for 66% of all casualties where the age was known.
• 2021 was the first year in a decade that there were no new casualties resulting from cluster munition attacks.
• Cluster munition remnant casualties recorded in: Azerbaijan | Iraq | Lao PDR | Lebanon | Mauritania | Nagorno-Karabakh Sudan | Syria | Tajikistan | Western Sahara |Yemen
• Preliminary data indicates at least 689 civilian casualties during cluster munition attacks in Ukraine during the first half of 2022.
So to summarize:
- Nearly every cluster bomb being used worldwide is being used by Russians in Ukraine
- Nearly every cluster bomb casualty is a civilian
Considering that Russia has an extremely well-documented history of specifically targeting civilians, regardless of munitions type, this seems like more of a Russia problem than a cluster bomb problem (at least to the point that it renders these specific statistics moot in a discussion about the general risks of cluster munitions, when used by militaries that are not as barbarous and murderous as the Russian military)
And no, seeing how cluster ammunition is practically used, russian civilians are not going to disproportionately harmed. It’s going to be military targets which will be fucked up.
The issue with cluster munitions isn’t how they’re used, but what happens when a bomblet fails. Cluster bombs release hundreds to thousands of submunitions, and when one bomblet fails, it can remain armed and ready to detonate if/when someone comes by and bumps it, picks it up or runs over it with a tractor.
This can lead to issues long after the war is finished, as people are doing their own thing and get hurt or killed.
Yours is the only plausible rebuttal I’ve seen in this thread. I’m aware of how inhumane Russian military has been but I’ve also seen few (a small number) of stories when Ukranian military did something questionable.
Can you expand upon how the cluster munitions might be used and if there’s any oversight regarding their usage? (Which seems fair given how things turned out in Afghanistan).
This is less about who started what, and more about who will keep dying from it for the next 20 years.
Imagine Ukraine retakes control over some territories using cluster bombs… now they end up with an unknown number of unexploded bomblets lying around Ukrainian territory.
It’s also very likely that Ukraine will be using the cluster munitions to clear out minefields more than using them as an attacking/defensive weapon
It’s also very likely that Ukraine will be using the cluster munitions to clear out minefields more than using them as an attacking/defensive weapon
pretty much everyone says they’re going to use these for good reasons that will not harm civilians and have purely military consequences―it never works out that way, and seldom is restricted to those uses once rubber hits the road. i’m not sure why we’re assuming that this will be any different other than that the actor is sympathetic and we’d like to (incorrectly) assume their judgement is unimpeachable and infallible.
The people who should weigh the risks to Ukrainian civilians are Ukrainians themselves.
Minefields pose the same sort of risk to civilians, but I think it would be inappropriate to insist the Ukrainians can’t use mines to defend themselves.
“given how they’re practically used…”
You’re assuming they will be used in the conventional way instead of, say, breaking out the submunitions to drop individually with drones.
You’re assuming they will be used in the conventional way instead of, say, breaking out the submunitions to drop individually with drones.
yes, because it’s basically a guarantee they will be used in the conventional way even if they’re also used for other purposes―the level of trust being assumed here of Ukraine is, respectfully, kind of silly given the extremely well established issues with any usage of these things and the nature of wars. things which “shouldn’t” be used get used all the time.
and also: even in the best case scenario here, individually using them is basically a lateral move. the problem with cluster munitions is a very high rate of failure which given their size and number adds up massively over time relative to other munitions―individual usage doesn’t really help that, it just slows the problem.
