Theoretically yes. This is an issue that has been considered before, though admittedly not with regards to fucking Greenland. Turkiye and Greece have long been enemies as well as members of NATO, and it’s been considered that the invocation of Article 5 by the aggressed-upon party against the aggressing party in case of a serious war would, theoretically, be binding on the other members of NATO.
In practice, NATO is a gentleman’s agreement with no means of enforcement. Everything comes down to political will - NATO is just an organizational structure to facilitate a response. It cannot replace the will (or lack thereof) of national governments.
Additionally, it’s helpful to know the specific language used in Article 5:
Article 5
“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.” (emphasis added)
Article 5 doesn’t actually oblige NATO members to defend anything by force, it obliges NATO members to decide what actions are “deemed necessary” and then to undertake those actions. If a NATO member gets invaded, everyone could – in theory – write a sternly worded letter and call it a day (though I doubt that would be the actual response). As you/others have more or less said, the actual action chosen would largely be the result of political will.
Article 5 doesn’t actually oblige NATO members
I do not share your interpretation (although I know that it has been the popular one recently).
I read it like this:
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The obligation is out of any question: they “will” assist.
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The goal of all measures is defined: “restore […] peace and security”.
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The choice of measures isn’t totally free. It must fit to that goal.
So, yes they can decide whether or not no use force, but they cannot follow random political agendas there.
And not fold paper airplanes instead of real ones :)
Presumably the member states can decide to interpret it however they’d like, but for whatever it’s worth I’m just paraphrasing what political scientist William Spaniel (…who I thought would have had a Wikipedia page by now) has said on the topic of Article 5 (though the context wasn’t the US invading Greenland lol)
To your point, I think the political will to defend Greenland will definitely be there from the overwhelming majority of other NATO states.
Will the political will to start an actual shooting war with the US be there?
I don’t think there’s a practical ability. The European powers can’t project power outside their boarders without the US helping. Especially with an overseas nation like Greenland.
England and France have a few carriers, but that’s about it. Landing troops would be highly vulnerable to US air superiority. US carriers are larger and more numerous than anything Europe can put up. Based on the local geography, those carriers can stay safe from drone range (a benefit Russia does not have on the Black Sea).
But that also assumes the US military is unified to follow orders into an illegal war, and that may not be the case.
Even during the recent occupation of Ukraine and the threat upon neighboring countries that are in NATO there was discussion about what-ifs, and how much gray area there is in such events. The core idea of NATO was about deterrence, much like the MAD of nuclear weapon buildup. If someone crosses that line, something has to happen otherwise the whole agreement is called out as meaningless. Article 5 leaves what actions need to happen open ended though, so assistance can be something as simple as persuading the attacker to leave via strong words. Which will absolutely be the first thing tried, as no one wants to escalate to the next level. Well, except the idiots who are attacking.
And since it’s basically the US and everyone else in equal share, NATO is just dead and irrelevant if they’re the ones breaking it.
The EU, on the other hand, would probably be in like a dirty shirt, having a defence agreement aspect. Maybe Canada too, just because we’d know we’re next.
Article 5 doesn’t oblige members to take any particular action. It only says that an attack on one is an attack on all, and leaves it to each member to decide what actions, if any, they will take in response.
It says each member will assist the attacked party/parties, as it deems necessary.
My interpretation of the article is that assistance is mandatory. What type of assistance is up to the member to decide
https://www.nato.int/cps/fr/natohq/topics_110496.htm?selectedLocale=en
Side note: If this administration does invade, just accept the invite to the group chat our drunken Secretary of Defense sends you.
Probably? I don’t think anyone knows for sure. It’s not like NATO countries have invaded each other before.
USA itself would violate it’s own membership. With such an act it became the enemy of the NATO.
