A new poll shows President Joe Biden leading Trump 44% to 37%, with Kennedy notching 16%.
Released by Marist in partnership with NPR and PBS Newshour on Tuesday, the poll shows a five-point drop among Democrats for Biden with Kennedy in the race. Meanwhile, the survey indicates a 10-point drop among Republicans for Trump with RFK Jr. on the ticket.
Again, national polls are meaningless since we don’t run national elections.
They give a general idea of how the public will vote when it comes to spoiler candidates. No, they don’t consider regional differences, but I wouldn’t say they are meaningless.
Not saying polls don’t have their worth, but you can make polls say basically whatever you want.
“poll of 2,000 people of varying ages, genders, backgrounds” when they stood out in front of a music theater to get opinions on modern rap music. The results are biased because of how they collected them. Yeah, technically everyone coming out of that theater fits your “different ages sexes” and so on, but they’re all going to have strong opinions based on why they have gathered in common interest.
That’s not how polling works.
Small sample size national polls are always the first line of polling.
They are not meaningless, even if they don’t have the same precision as exit polling.
What I mean is, thanks to the electoral college, running a national poll as though it means anything is pointless.
We saw this in 2016 with Clinton. National polling showed her winning, and as far as the popular vote was concerned, she won.
Which means jack all in the electoral college.
Polling showed Clinton as being most likely to win. The fact that she didn’t win doesn’t mean the polling is necessarily meaningless. Even if someone has a 90% chance of winning, it means they can not only lose, but 1 in 10 times you expect them to lose.
Seems to me that your mistake is that you believe the purpose of polls is to predict an outcome, and/or tell you who is “winning” or “losing” at a given point in time. That is not their purpose.
Their purpose is to gauge the relative effectiveness of different campaign messaging strategies, and to give a rough order of magnitude of a campaign’s trajectory.
Here’s the most important part: polls contain no actionable data for voters. They shouldn’t influence whether or how much you volunteer or donate, and they absolutely must not influence how you vote.
So true! Also, even if this data is 100% accurate, that means 16% of people prefer him to Trump (or Biden). But come election day, the one thing Republicans can be counted on to do is to check the box next to the ‘R’ candidate, no matter what.
It will be interesting to see what effect he has on turnout, if any…
How are these polls conducted? Because the sample may be skewed.
This survey of 1,313 adults was conducted October 11th, 2023 by the Marist Poll sponsored in partnership with NPR and PBS NewsHour. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the United States were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. Survey questions were available in English. Phone and online samples were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its adult population. The samples were then combined and balanced to reflect the 2020 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, race, and region. Results are statistically significant within ±3.8 percentage points. There are 1,218 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±3.9 percentage points.
I don’t know about that. He has been heavily funded by right-wing sources in the hopes of spoiling for Biden.
Funding doesn’t mean shit, you still have to actually convince people. Literally all he has to offer that democrats might view as a “positive” is that he’s a Kennedy. That’s it. He’s solely banking on the hope that dems will be too stupid to consider anything about him other than his fucking last name. Problem with that is, that level of unquestionable devotion to a political entity is solidly a republican trait nowadays.
The yoga antivax crowd is a pretty confusing one. They’re as anti science as Trump, but consider themselves to belong on the political left. So it’s not as obvious as one might immediately think.
I tend to agree, but then again I would have said the same thing about the Tea Party some years ago. And in presidential elections it could very much be decided on the margins, which is why people are concerned. At Jr. events there tend to be a solid number of people who consider themselves Obama era democrats.
i think it’s due to historically coming from the anti gmo earth crunchy group (i say this as someone who is pretty earth crunchy but not anti vaxx or gmo).
I think there’s a risk of people discovering actual truths that are not widely promoted that they tend to overdo it a bit and obsess over finding truths everywhere.
RFK’s background makes sense in that regard - both as a Kennedy and as a climate lawyer. No wonder he lost trust (and/or his mind).
I am always a bit offended by the inclusion of yoga here. I do yoga as a way to stay in shape, and flexible, but I am in no way antivax. In my social bubble there are many like me. Is this stereotype really still warranted?
I see the frustration - I have nothing against yoga at all! I just think there are two very different types of vaccine sceptics, and that they can effectively be sorted by their attitudes to yoga. I don’t think there’s any correlation between being pro yoga and being anti vaccine. :)
“I refuse to believe this poll because PBS and NPR are secretly controlled by the Tri-lateral commission, the Pro Bowlers Tour and Baskin-Robbins. Do your own research!”
- RFK “I am not a crackpot!” Jr.
Also, dippin’ dots is NOT the ice cream of the future! (This needs to come back, it was wonderful)
Dippin dots almost went away for good! lucky for them, the plant-based meat substitute industry needed a way to get little drops of fatty stuff cooled down so it could be easily mixed, like fat is distributed through hamburger.
And wouldn’t you know it, Dippin Dots had a crazy idea…
Really dude? Baskin Robbins? We all know the world is run by the DQ cabal. There’s really no other way to explain how they’re still in business in spite of their absolutely revolting food
