This isn’t meant to be a discussion on the morality of the embargo, but the affects of the embargo ending for both countries. These affects can be political, economic, or social.
For the US, the change would be minimal. The economy of Cuba is so small by comparison and they don’t have a heavy industry or tech sector to offer much to the US economy. Most outflows of money would likely be in tourism by US citizens to Cuba. And maybe some businesses would find ways to offshore some work. But again, I think the overall impact would be small.
As for Cuba, it really depends on the Cuban Government. Trade with the US and tourism are likely to have a much larger impact (as a percentage of GDP) on Cuba. The country could well see a sizeable influx of foreign cash. Managed well, this could create a lot of opportunity for the Cuban people. Managed by a corrupt regime, intent on enriching itself and it’s friends, this could lead to the same type of misery which usually results from corrupt government.
They’d both suddenly benefit… the impact on America would be pretty minimal economically simply due to scale but it probably would improve health by moving us partially off corn syrup. And for Cuba it’d end decades of arbitrary economic kneecapping by the US. Tourism would probably explode since it’d be a shorter flight than cancun from the east coast and, y’know, not fucking Florida.
I don’t think it would have any significant impact on corn syrup usage.
The US already produces about nine times more sugar cane than Cuba does. We also import it from countries like Brazil and the other Caribbean islands.
Our usage of corn syrup is because it’s very cheap to begin with, and for various reasons it’s desirable to keep food production, including corn, higher than demand would normally require.
That has one effect of further lowering the price of corn syrup.
The only thing that’ll get us to cut back the amount of corn syrup in foods is the (slow) growing trend of consumers preferring foods that don’t have added sugar, which would also preclude cane sugar.
Corn syrup is mainly cheap because of the huge subsidies, putting that money to better use supporting veggie or fruit production would make us all a lot healthier
It’ll still be cheap and easy to use without the subsidies, since it’s not like we’re going to stop growing the corn even if it’s more expensive. Lowering the price of healthier foods will do a lot of good, but there’s also the part where people need to change their tastes.
We just like food that’s too sweet.
It’s a small economic quirk, but I imagine many Cubans would be selling their old American cars to collectors State-side for a quick cash influx.
And Americans would be eager to travel to Cuba for tropical tourism. That feels like a longer lasting economic change.
Of course there’d be a bubble market on Cuban cigars that would arise, climb, then settle as the demand declines as the idea of a Cuban cigar becomes more normalized.
I’ve heard Cuba has some novel treatments for lung cancer. I imagine there’d be a market for medical tourism that would emerge from that, as I sincerely doubt the FDA would evaluate and approve a foreign treatment created under a Communist government with any haste.
I think Cuba uses the Cuban peso, the real hasn’t been in use for centuries.
There was a cuban peso and convertible peso, but apparently they’ve been merged 3 years ago. So the sanctions probably are the main barrier to free trade now.
I think that largely depends on how easy it becomes for Americans to travel to Cuba. I imagine there’d be a bubble for most economic exchanges in the get go, but after it would normalize more.
I’m not really sure what constitutes “big” or how large the medical tourism industry is, say, between Mexico and the US, but I know it exists.
I’ve heard that Cuban healthcare is very good, but I’m unsure how accessible it would be to Americans. Being an American, I really don’t know much about Cuba… but I’ve heard a few general things.
I was curious about that lung cancer treatment and found this Snopes article. Sounds like in Cuba it’s demonstrated that it can add several months to some people’s lives after they’re diagnosed with lung cancer. Phase II clinical trials are underway in the US as of last year, and preliminary results show particular success in combination with other existing treatments. They’ve expanded the trial to cover some other forms of cancer too
Even during the ‘open’ Obama years, tourism for Americans was severely limited by the lack of banking interchange between US banks and Cuban ATMs and credit card networks. You have to bring cash and use a currency exchange, and if you run out you have no way of getting more money from your American bank. Other countries’ networks don’t have this issue, but it would need to be fixed for Americans to visit and spend money.
I’m glad the internal currencies of CUC vs CUP have been resolved, though a massive influx of tourist dollars would strain the existing economic systems of Cubans being paid for jobs other than tourism.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko said on Friday that more than 100 Russian companies had started operations in Cuba over the past year, according to the state news agency TASS
So, I doubt it would ever happen.
What does Russia in 2024 have to do with the blockade? Cuba has been trying to peacefully trade with the US for 60 years - even when the USSR provided aid.
Make no mistake about who is imposing the embargo
Besides nationalizing US businesses without compensation, Cuba got in pretty hot water during the Cold War for its hosting of Soviet Nukes. While I completely agree the embargo is pointless at this time, the increased presence of Russian influence could stir up some old feelings.
US businesses? You mean mob-run casinos? Or hereditary plantation owners?
