Donald Trump is reportedly losing sleep, battling anxiety, and obsessing over his polling numbers as the GOP nominee hopes to hang his hat on any sign that he will return to the White House.
A campaign official told Axios that Trump is asking more questions and pushing his staff to work even more to ensure that he will come out ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris come Election Day.
“Trump’s anxiety is evident in his late-night and early morning calls to aides in which he peppers them with questions on how things are going—and whether they think he’ll win,” Axios reported.
Yep. And I think he will win too. I’ve been playing with the ABC/538 and Harris’ chances just seem so slim to me.
I just want to see something reassuring at this point.
Reassurance is women are out-voting men by 10pts in early voting.
Fully 35% of black voters say they plan to vote on election day alone.
538 gave 59% odda GOP to take the Senate in 2022.
Not only do these polls have a margin of error, but they are only predictive insofar as their likely voter models are accurate, and registration volatility and GOP crossover support for Harris means they likely aren’t.
There is no evidence that the low propensity incel bro vote is churning out as hoped.
I happen to live in a Republican controlled district in one of the swing states. The people who are enthusiastic about Trump are extremely enthusiastic. As in, flying Trump-Vance flags in their truck down a major thoroughfare.
And, the Muslim population here may very well not be bluffing and vote for Trump instead of Harris - or simply not vote at all. The Israel-Gaza issue is HUGE here.
Unless our major city pulls through for us, Trump will win our state.
The odds are also stacked against Harris based on how electoral votes are counted. If you ask me who I think will win the popular vote, I think Harris will win. It’s just that the game is so stacked, and Republican controlled regions are, well, making it hard to vote.
Did I mention SCOTUS is not impartial?
Any Muslim voting for Trump fully deserves the shit that will rain down on their countrymen if Trump wins. That’s literally the dumbest thing they could be doing, even worse than not voting or voting for “Free Palestine”.
Republican early voting is up, yet early voting numbers split is in line with 2020. That’s not necessarily a good sign for Republicans.
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You’re going to see more registered Republicans crossing over to vote for Harris than perhaps any Democrat has previously received.
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More are voting early, but that’s to be expected given Trump learned from the 2020 mistake of dissuading his voters from early voting. It doesn’t mean greater turnout; it just means the same voters Trump had before are voting earlier.
Nate Silver left 538, but he is still hosting the Monte Carlo model at the Silver Bulletin. That model is putting it right around 50-50 for Trump win vs Harris win. That’s not a polling average… That’s the result of playing a few million elections where the results are based on the current polling average.
Okay and on Election Day 2016 he had it at 60-70% Clinton when I went out to vote. He was very wrong
He was very wrong
If everytimw you say something has a 30% chance of happening, it never happens, then your models are wrong because they should say zero percent. If you say something has a 30% chance of happening and it happens, that doesn’t mean you were wrong.
It’s shocking how many people don’t understand percentages.
Ugh for the billionth time, he wasn’t wrong. That is not how statistics works. He gave a percentage chance. That’s it. If I say there is a 70% chance Clinton wins, and she loses, that doesn’t mean I was wrong.
I think it was right around 35% as you say. Unlikely, but not impossible for Trump to win. If Trump hit a one out of three lucky shot, that should be somewhat surprising, but not too very surprising.
Anyhow, he’s saying this one is an even coin flip.
Love how lemmy just toxically down-votes things that don’t agree with their bias.
… isn’t the downvote button explicitly meant to voice your disagreement with something?
I don’t understand why people complain about downvotes. If you don’t want to see them, join an instance where they’re disabled (like mine).
A lot of people try to say you should only down vote poor quality comments that don’t contribute to the discussion.
If every one downvotes opinions they disagree with you just have a homogeneous echo chamber.
Personally, I don’t think there’s any point complaining about it. You can’t hold back that tide.
Honestly I think users on Lemmy are from a very narrow demographic, and to be blunt a lot of users just don’t have a very broad life experience. That being the case I think anyone should expect to have some opinions which are unpopular with other lemmy users.
Its not that they “disagree” with it per se, its that they want it to not be the case.
Down voting statements of fact because they make you feel uncomfortable is what is actually happening. If they were willing to step in and make or defend an argument; thats a separate case. Lemmy just knee-jerk downvotes things that it doesn’t want to be true.
