As we know from Gore and Clinton, national numbers mean jack shit. Vote!
Clinton especially. That +8 margin of victory made Dems complacent.
If we turn out for Harris the same way we did for Biden on 2020, for the exact same reasons, we’ll win handedly. It wouldn’t even be close.
Turn out and vote. Make it a hate vote if you must. Remember the four terrible years under Trump the Traitor and consider him within striking distance of the oval office once again.
Only matters if you live in one of the like 7 swing states that matter, otherwise just vote for whomever you want.
If Trump gets the Presidency, you still can affect national level politics by voting in your Representative and Senator.
If Democrats hold Senate and House, they can protect us more from Trump. Every state matters, because every state has 2 Senators at a minimum (and Senators are very, very powerful). Senators are state-wide and therefore immune to any gerrymandering (only House Members have the Gerrymandering problem)
There’s also a slew of other local elections that can be equally, if not more important than national congressional races. A great deal of the GOP’s ability to put a stranglehold on progress has been from their fairly dedicated takeover of statehouses and local elections. We need to have an even greater level of determination when it comes to showing up to vote. Every. Single. Election.
There are 100 senators.
66 are not on the ballot in 2024.
Of the 34 remaining, 23 are safe and 2 are likely.
That leaves 9 seats. 7 are leaning one way or the other.
2 are toss ups, Ohio and Montana. Vote if live there. Probably even the leaning 7. But the rest…?
As an aside, if all the leans break the way they are leaning, Dems have to hold the two toss ups to have a 50-50 Senate.
Don’t believe the naysayers. No matter which state you are in, your vote is important. Extreme Conservatives have been taking over school boards and imposing their agenda on kids.
Offices like Sheriff, Coroner, Secretary of State, Lt Governor, State Representatives, City and County Councils etc. are all important.
Every Vote Counts!!!
Definitely agree with this. As someone from Oregon where my vote doesn’t really matter on the national elections I make sure to vote still to influence local elections. Only problem with those is that finding info on the candidates can be hard or sometimes there is only one candidate for a position.
Coroner??? As in the person who notes that people are dead??? That’s an elected position? What? Why? How can that even possibly be political? “This person has gone red but they should have gone blue instead. Make them get back up and start walking around until they do dying right!”; “Cause of death: Being a gorram <insult of choice>!”; “You’re not allowed to die, we’ve had too many deaths this week and I won’t get elected again if you do. Stop pretending to be cold and stiff!”. What?
The coroner could rule on whether a death is suspicious or not. Like if a brown person dies in custody, the coroner may or may not chock it up to “natural causes” depending on their political leanings.
This is just wild conjecture on my part – I don’t think I get to vote for coroner locally – but I could definitely see that happening.
As usual, national polls mean nothing since we don’t have national elections.
But let’s see where it stands in the states that count, all of these numbers are from before the DNC and Kennedy dropping out, so we’ll need a re-run in a week or two. I’m also adding some states people have been talking about.
Arizona: Toss up. Tie, Trump +1 +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Nevada: Harris +6, +8, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico: Harris +8, +9
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
Texas: Trump +5, +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/texas/
Georgia: Trump +1, +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Florida: Trump +5, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/
North Carolina: Toss up. Tie, Harris +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
Virginia: Harris +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
Pennsylvania: Toss up. Harris +1, +2, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Michigan: Harris +6, +7, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin: Harris +6, +7, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Minnesota: Harris +5, +7, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Huge shifts in Nevada, New Mexico, Michigan and Wisconsin which, under Biden, were a loss to Trump and shortly before the official shift were still barely Trump.
Trump is up in Texas, but only +5 or +6 which is consistent with the +6 win in 2020 and +9 in 2016.
Florida and Georgia are not the toss up states people are making them out to be.
The Muslim Pro-Gaza vote has had 0 impact in Michigan. Still Harris’ race to lose there.
Overall, this is the best showing for the Democrats so far this year, let’s plot it on the map:
Of the three toss up states, a win in either PA or NC puts Harris over the top. Arizona does not. She’s 2 short if she gets AZ but not PA or NC.
Trump needs BOTH PA and NC to hit exactly 270. PA + AZ he’s at 265. NC + AZ he’s at 262.
This is really the first time in months that the electoral math has been going away from Trump.
Good write up. National polls don’t mean shit and this is far from a done deal as you’ve shown.
As a New Mexican, those polls had to have been erroneous. There’s no way in hell the state would have turned red, not for Trump. The last time our state was red in the general election was 2004, and before that, 1988. You all don’t have to worry about us, but I will gladly attend a Harris/Walz rally here.
Polls. Don’t. Matter. Fucking. Vote.
Everyone here is right about this still being neck and neck.
That said, let’s also take 2 seconds to acknowledge that Harris has kind of been killing it over the last 3-4 weeks. She took over that campaign apparatus and moved with urgency, precision, and polish. Moreover, she’s not taking her opponent’s bate.
Makes me wonder if Biden maybe knew he might drop out earlier than he actually did and he was silently prepping her to be ready to go full force.
He, his family, his cabinet, and the entire Dem leadership knew the day after his debate. Everything else was obfuscation so they didn’t send public perception of the party into a tail spin while they circled the wagons. All the talk of “everyone still supports Biden 100%” was BS and anyone paying attention knew it.
She’s deflated considerably since the Convention.
Refusing to allow Palestinian-American to speak and “The most lethal military” has and will continue to cost her with the antiwar and posesses basic human decency demographic.
She might still win. But historically moving to the right has only lost layup elections for democrats.
Trying to appeal to people that spend most of the day on the internet trying to find a reason not to vote isn’t a winning strategy.
If you’re fine with Trump winning, you don’t actually care about Palestinians, you only care about putting on a performance about caring about Palestinians for an internet audience. There’s no way for a political campaign to have success by appealing to people that have this level of internet brained irrationality.
The “not committed” people decided to remove themselves from the equation, which has resulted in their concerns not being a factor in this election. If the point is to only express anger on the internet (and not accomplish any change) then congratulations, you have someone else to be angry on the internet over. Like most anger on the internet it will be heavily monetized and make some people a lot of money. But they aren’t ever going to have success trying to appease people that profit off of expressing anger. Whatever they do won’t be good enough because there’s a profit motive to this anger.
I don’t understand your logic here. Declaring yourself “uncommitted” is the only leverage you have over a party that wants your vote. Telling them “I’m gonna vote for you but I won’t like it!” sounds the exact same to them as “I’m gonna vote for you and I love you!”. Once they have your vote guaranteed, they no longer have to address your concerns. This movement is targeting democrats because they are perceived as more susceptible to this kind of pressure (anti genocide). However, the pressure has to be applied to have a chance of success.
As unlikely as it is cuz chump is historically shit. But possible that Harris loses. Should that happen. I hope you remember this post.
Because it woulda been real easy to turn this coinflip into a landslide. Let a genocide victim speak at the DNC and use the Lehey Law to embargo the Occupation. Cut off the bombs.
That’s it. Democrats would have locked in both houses and the presidency for a generation or more. Instead of taking a victory lap right now you’re here fingerwagging like the good little liberal you are.
Does AIPAC give you headpats or something? I know they’re not paying you. I’m not a liberal. So I’m not dumb enough to believe that. But what do you get out of being a volunteer amateur propagandist for a genocidal bloodthirsty empire?
Don’t answer that. I don’t actually care. My start and finish line is genocide. If you support it in any way, I dont support you under any circumstances. Nothing else matters. Because that’s the cliff of morality. If you’re OK with it anywhere happening to anyone youd be ok with it here, happening to your neighbors. And that makes you less than human and not worth my time. (You owe me $5 for this reality check btw)
